RogueWaves Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: I dunno. I just can't shake having a really good feeling about this storm. Maybe I'll be dead wrong, but I think northern IL will see a non-dissapointing amount of snow. Just a hunch lol For the record, I'm liking a FWA --> TOL snowfall mean axis. Euro 14/18z = little dog showing Big Dog the path. Just my 2 pennies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ther euro seems to have continued the trend of making this significant. Going out on a limb saying that plays out and shifts north. If the system digs SW and moves NE or ENE and negatively tilts, all bets are off then when it comes to amounts I dread the bitter cold to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 God this thing has so much potential. GFS north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 There's a pretty monstrous area of 8"+ on the 00z GFS. Came in more juiced and stronger all around. Big broad stripe across pretty much the whole sub. Gonna be a lot of happy people with that run. EDIT: Pic added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Like someone said earlier... Take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Looks like it’s gonna be a real nice hit for most of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio starting to get my hopes up. Just hope the ice chance stays south of me. With those winds could be a lot of power outages wherever the ice sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: There's a pretty monstrous area of 8"+ on the 00z GFS. Came in more juiced and stronger all around. Big broad stripe across pretty much the whole sub. Gonna be a lot of happy people with that run. EDIT: Pic added. Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, hlcater said: There's a pretty monstrous area of 8"+ on the 00z GFS. Came in more juiced and stronger all around. Big broad stripe across pretty much the whole sub. Gonna be a lot of happy people with that run. EDIT: Pic added. It’s.....beautiful.. My guard is still up considering the time remaining, but there have been some fairly welcoming signs this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 This is up there with the most ridiculous death band signatures I've seen off of Lake Michigan. There will be good inland penetration in this setup, but it might be overdoing those heavier rates so far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is up there with the most ridiculous death band signatures I've seen off of Lake Michigan. There will be good inland penetration in this setup, but it might be overdoing those heavier rates so far inland. Absurd. Also GEM cave to the rest of guidance. That was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GEM is in a similar place to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is up there with the most ridiculous death band signatures I've seen off of Lake Michigan. There will be good inland penetration in this setup, but it might be overdoing those heavier rates so far inland. It’ll be interesting to see how high the amounts will be modeled inside that band once we get in range of hi-res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Clear as day trend on the GFS along the East Coast where the Thu/Fri system is now exiting (trending north) which allows for higher heights behind it across the Midwest/OV, which in turn allows for our system to then cut a little more each of the last several GFS runs. Making all the difference with how far north that lead system exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I look here ... <http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html> before I look at GFS snow panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Man wish we could lock in 0z gfs. Ha. That would make most of us happy. For now looks like this Thurs system doesn't look to get too amped up so that's good. I was shocked today that ILX was calling 3-5in this weekend. Way too early to make any calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: It’ll be interesting to see how high the amounts will be modeled inside that band once we get in range of hi-res models Very impressive ..I recall a few set ups like that over the years....one time a light band went all the way into KY off the lake...it had a break in southern Indiana but reformed as it got lifted up over the hills of Northern KY..the LOU AFD actually discussed Lake effect snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 LES setup will certainly feature extreme lake induced instability with 850s plunging to -20C or colder over the lake by early Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate inversion heights between 850 and 700 mb lifting to closer to 700 mb during Sunday as cold air mass deepens. The inversion height is probably on the low side but when you consider that the DGZ is so low in such a cold air mass, it may be less of an issue than you'd otherwise think. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: LES setup will certainly feature extreme lake induced instability with 850s plunging to -20C or colder over the lake by early Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate inversion heights between 850 and 700 mb lifting to closer to 700 mb during Sunday as cold air mass deepens. The inversion height is probably on the low side but when you consider that the DGZ is so low in such a cold air mass, it may be less of an issue than you'd otherwise think. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk The lift intersects the DGZ quite nicely on the soundings I have checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Well hello there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Look at what the icon does to Ohio. Eye candy for sure. But wow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, geddyweather said: It’s.....beautiful.. My guard is still up considering the time remaining, but there have been some fairly welcoming signs this evening. That's TERRIBLE for MBY...1/2" . Hope the cold air is faster and stronger than progged or this will be a cold, heavy rain for me and maybe ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Well hello there Damn. Bundle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is up there with the most ridiculous death band signatures I've seen off of Lake Michigan. There will be good inland penetration in this setup, but it might be overdoing those heavier rates so far inland. Terre haute buried in lake effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie looks south and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: Ukie looks south and suppressed. ..and last night it was the talk of the town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: Ukie looks south and suppressed. Where do you find the ukie maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Aallen said: Where do you find the ukie maps? http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, hlcater said: Ukie looks south and suppressed. I'm kinda shocked to see a 1044 mb sfc high on that model. Just from watching it over the years, it seems like it underestimates the pressures in sfc highs, sometimes significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, hlcater said: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm kinda shocked to see a 1044 mb sfc high on that model. Just from watching it over the years, it seems like it underestimates the pressures in sfc highs, sometimes significantly. It is failing to build the heights up after the Thursday system, there is no reason it shouldn't be either, that system doesn't stall out and moves right on out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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