cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 The new snows in southern IA starting to do work. Lamoni is down to 1/2 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 9:31 PM, cyclone77 said: The new snows in southern IA starting to do work. Lamoni is down to 1/2 mile. Expand You're golden for another 6"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nice afd by LOT. The tl;dr version: things basically on track, could be a significant chunk of the cwa that comes in less than 6", and still plenty of uncertainty with the LES but potential for 6+ if it stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 8:45 PM, Jackstraw said: I honestly don't know what to expect here. 2-14? lol Expand same here. It's like us in central Indiana have no idea what's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 9:36 PM, zinski1990 said: same here. It's like us in central Indiana have no idea what's coming Expand KIND's afternoon AFD reflects that uncertainty. A 1 degree flux in temp either way, especially along I70, could men the difference between 3 inches and 6 inches or more Really riding the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 9:38 PM, Angrysummons said: I forecast 2-12 inches for west central ohio. What happens happens............... Expand You went conservative, I big dogged it at 2-14 lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Starting off the storm with... graupel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Starting to ramp it up some. Nice coating down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It's been a long time since I've seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 10:10 PM, hlcater said: It's been a long time since I've seen this. Expand november 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 21z RAP looks good for N IL, the HRRR is showing an upward trend as well in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 10:11 PM, Baum said: november 25 Expand That event wasn't nearly as widespread with the warnings. Infinitely more impressive in the areas that it did hit however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That 21z RAP shows a pretty great hit for Southern Michigan but both NWS Grand Rapids and Detroit haven't issued any warnings. Those snowfall totals are more impressive than some of the other counties that did get warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 10:11 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: 21z RAP looks good for N IL, the HRRR is showing an upward trend as well in recent runs. Expand Geez, if that's correct my forecast would definitely bust lol. Think the kuchera ratios are too high though based on the forecast soundings. Would still be 7-8" for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Threw in the towel 24hrs ago to maybe an inch call only to have current models such as GFS, Euro, RAP and more showing a 6-12+ event for SW Ohio... feel bad for the ILN office and local Mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 LOT Aviation have made some slight timing adjustments to the going forecast, but in general, there is little change to the general scenario. Latest radar imagery indicates some weak echo overspreading nwrn IL, but this is elevated and any falling snow is evaporating before hitting the ground since low levels are initially relatively dry. Expect that snowfall rates should ramp up quickly by arnd 01-02z. The period of heaviest snow should be durg the late evening hours and continue overnight. Have gone with a prevailing 1/2sm as snowfall rates and wind speeds increase. There will likely be periods with rates of 1 inch per hour and short periods with rates of 2-3 inches per hour with vis of 1/4sm or less should any heavier small scale banding develop and mover over the terminals. Given low confidence in timing, location and residence time of any narrow banding, have not included in the TAFs at this time, but these lower conditions remain a possibility. As the more significant snowfall begins, also expect that cigs should lower rapidly to ifr or lifr levels. Liquid to snow ratios should start out near climatologically normal levels and snow type with not be particularly wet or dry, but as colder air moves into the region by early tomorrow morning, liquid to snow ratios will increase and the potential for blowing and drifting snow will become a concern. So, while snowfall rates are expected to diminish by arnd daybreak, visibility should remain in ifr levels due to blowing snow more so than falling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile. Very impressive. Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD. Madison SD with 14". Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 10:52 PM, cyclone77 said: Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile. Very impressive. Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD. Madison SD with 14". Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing. Expand that's quite the change from earlier reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 10:52 PM, cyclone77 said: Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile. Very impressive. Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD. Madison SD with 14". Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing. Expand ASOS auto detects a vis of 1/4 then the next value is M1/4 so the 1/8 is a man supplied entry there. Also a better chance of being more accurate as well. In other words it is going to pound town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It’s absolutely ripping here. I havnt seen it snow this heavily in a few years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toddrix1977 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 LOT is still being very aggressive with their storm totals near the lake. This includes lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:17 PM, toddrix1977 said: LOT is still being very aggressive with their storm totals near the lake. This includes lake effect. Expand If the 22z HRRR is right the cut off is going to be extreme in Cook county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:20 PM, mimillman said: If the 22z HRRR is right the cut off is going to be extreme in Cook county Expand 3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Had some flakes earlier. Hoping the fgen band comes far enough south to make me happy. Won't have any issues with dry air at the onset, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:17 PM, toddrix1977 said: LOT is still being very aggressive with their storm totals near the lake. This includes lake effect. Expand Would love to see happen but don’t see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toddrix1977 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:23 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: 3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours) Expand Since we really don't know how the lake bands will set up, there is a chance that S. Cook could do ok. I never trust where a model says lake effect will set up. I'm in the N. side of Chicago, so I'm feeling pretty good about this setup right now. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:23 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: 3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours) Expand Consistent with the forecast. And a 3" -8" difference in a county the size of Cook is not extreme. Model also seems to be playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:25 PM, ILSNOW said: Would love to see happen but don’t see it Expand Agreed.. I'm throwing in the towel for first round just soley based on current radar returns.. hoping for the best on the LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:23 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: 3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours) Expand The 22z RAP is not quite as punishing, but has a similar look. Someone over Northern Cook/Lake county will do very well with this system + lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 11:25 PM, ILSNOW said: Would love to see happen but don’t see it Expand On 1/18/2019 at 11:33 PM, ChiTownSnow said: Agreed.. I'm throwing in the towel for first round just soley based on current radar returns.. hoping for the best on the LE Expand You'll be surprised then at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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