Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,876
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Anbelon
    Newest Member
    Anbelon
    Joined

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 1/17/2019 at 2:15 AM, Chicago Storm said:

NAM definitely going to be better and probably north.

Southern wave is stronger, neutral tilt trough sooner, more ridging over Midwest/OV and less ridging over Western states earlier.

Expand  

I have 27 hours (midnight Thursday) to decide if I’m hunkering down in the Chicago Loop Saturday morning (and all day) or trying to drive home 50ish miles... Looking more and more likely I may be saying downtown. But now the lake effect Saturday night could make Sunday trouble. Sampling and next 24 hours will start turning some of this ensemble roulette into hopefully a more clear picture...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/17/2019 at 2:26 AM, Chicago Storm said:

NAM is going to be well north, many factors in play.

Expand  

With the high to the north across the UP into Ontario, any stronger and further north the system goes the stronger the pressure gradient will be also the stronger the frontogenesis will be. This could really squeeze the juice out of the atmosphere.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/17/2019 at 2:30 AM, Chicago Storm said:

One big observation on the 0z NAM is that the following wave crashing into the PAC NW is actually helping lower heights with the Western ridge. This might help kick our the southern trough, possibly northeast a bit eventually.

Expand  

Yep that is the kicker, only downside would be that it might speed the forward progression of the storm but that would be a small downside compared to the positives coming out of the kicker wave.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy oh boy oh boy.   This one gets the ole tracking juices flowing again.  Just a classic looking MW storm. It's a shame we won't realize its full potential up this way but I can use my what if imagination.  Still could do quite well here all things considered.    First Jan storm in yrs that I feel there's a chance.

Excellent thoughts on the previous page also. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/17/2019 at 3:02 AM, Chicago Storm said:

If you think the 0z NAM is north, try the 0z RGEM...

It only goes to 48hrs, but it has a 999mb SLP over OKC at 48hr. The NAM is ~1003MB near Fredrick, OK along the Red River.

Expand  

That is the one thing I don't know if I buy, the 12NAM's intensity, even the 3km NAM is a bit stronger too. It is closer to the 18z GFS which was even stronger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/17/2019 at 3:08 AM, RyanDe680 said:

The big question should be who else comes to the NAMs agreement.  Even with this new run there’s still the outliers 

Expand  

I would have to imagine the Euro comes north tonight, to be honest I would be shocked if it didn't. The RGEM is already north as a mesoscale model. With the system starting to reach shore we are starting to get useful data on it as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/17/2019 at 3:10 AM, Stebo said:

I would have to imagine the Euro comes north tonight, to be honest I would be shocked if it didn't. The RGEM is already north as a mesoscale model. With the system starting to reach shore we are starting to get useful data on it as well.

Expand  

Supposedly the 18z Euro was a little north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...