beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 9:21 PM, Angrysummons said: I would put this energy vortex right up against Super Bowl, GHD and the 1999 storms in terms of Great Lakes snowfall/wind potential. You just look at that vortex off the pacific your like wow!!!! What a high priced texas hooker. Expand Did someone steal your keyboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 At first glance looks like GFS is a bump north/stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Pretty close look to the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Iowa still gets the moat in between the northern stream wave and southern stream. It is a bit wetter, but the moat is still very apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 almost identical run. Based off gfs and euro here in west indy I'm really on the edge of very heavy snow or ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 10:09 PM, zinski1990 said: almost identical run. Based off gfs and euro here in west indy I'm really on the edge of very heavy snow or ice storm. Expand Agreed, the shift north is minor at best. For you guys along 70 though, it is such a razor's edge between ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS definitely took a step. Northern wave a bit faster, southern wave a good deal faster and further NE eventually, which lead to earlier phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 10:10 PM, Stebo said: Agreed, the shift north is minor at best. For you guys along 70 though, it is such a razor's edge between ice and snow. Expand I didn't even notice a shift at all. I noticed though it showed more freezing rain which I'm thinking is something this storm will have but for some reason hasn't been talked about much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Come on storm move more north! I want some of the action here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 10:19 PM, zinski1990 said: I didn't even notice a shift at all. I noticed though it showed more freezing rain which I'm thinking is something this storm will have but for some reason hasn't been talked about much Expand You don't talk about .5+ ice until you have to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Per usual RC with a fine AFD at LOT. Won't post, but well worth the read for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Great AFD from LOT this afternoon. Worth the read, highlights the potential this storm has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 10:19 PM, zinski1990 said: I didn't even notice a shift at all. I noticed though it showed more freezing rain which I'm thinking is something this storm will have but for some reason hasn't been talked about much Expand It will likely be a problem wherever it happens, especially with the wind. Just remember when looking at the ice maps that you typically don't accrete everything that is shown as freezing rain, unless it's a drawn out event with lighter rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 10:36 PM, Hoosier said: It will likely be a problem wherever it happens, especially with the wind. Just remember when looking at the ice maps that you typically don't accrete everything that is shown as freezing rain, unless it's a drawn out event with lighter rates. Expand Looking down at Morgan-Monroe State Forest southern Indiana, NWS is showing an inch of rain during the middle of the day on Saturday. Even with near freezing temps, I doubt much can accumulate with that much liquid falling. (I'm camping there Friday noon to Monday afternoon and could come home to a huge mess of snow on Monday.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GEFS vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18z GEFS is just a hair further north/west of the 12z. Looks like most members are in fairly good agreement with some oddballs in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Looks good for the first siggy snow since November. I'd prelim call for 4-6" imby, but it's pretty obvious looking at the dynamics involved that the max band is going to drop 1'+, probably south of here. In Bermuda this weekend, so the only thing I'll be shovelling is mixed drinks into my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just not buying these high amounts with such an E-W direction. The Euro seems most realistic with its negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:45 PM, nwohweather said: Just not buying these high amounts with such an E-W direction. The Euro seems most realistic with its negative tilt Expand What? No model goes negative tilt until after it leaves the region, and the ECMWF is fairly E-W overall with the snowfall axis until OH on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:45 PM, nwohweather said: Just not buying these high amounts with such an E-W direction. The Euro seems most realistic with its negative tilt Expand The system that just hit had pretty high amounts with less moisture moving W to E. I don't see why that would change this go around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:03 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: 12z GEFS vs 18z Expand Nice jump north on that 18z. Wagons north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 A lot of the notorious systems do have more SW-NE components, but not always. You can certainly get a very big storm on more of a west-east trajectory. The Feb 2015 storm is an example of that. The Gulf is wide open in this case, which is obviously very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:15 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks good for the first siggy snow since November. I'd prelim call for 4-6" imby, but it's pretty obvious looking at the dynamics involved that the max band is going to drop 1'+, probably south of here. In Bermuda this weekend, so the only thing I'll be shovelling is mixed drinks into my gut. Expand I'll go with 6", but hope for about 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'd be satisfied with 4-5 given we have many opportunities to come. I'd gladly take more of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:48 PM, Chicago Storm said: What? No model goes negative tilt until after it leaves the region, and the ECMWF is fairly E-W overall with the snowfall axis until OH on east. Expand Which is where it’s highest totals are projected in Ohio. Also the last storm put its highest totals down much further south where moisture is more abundant than the I-80 corridor. Just hard to believe in a cutter dropping that much snow in this area when typically the big dog storms have an Indy to Cleveland type of tilt to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:04 AM, Hoosier said: A lot of the notorious systems do have more SW-NE components, but not always. You can certainly get a very big storm on more of a west-east trajectory. The Feb 2015 storm is an example of that. The Gulf is wide open in this case, which is obviously very important. On 1/15/2019 at 11:56 PM, Stebo said: The system that just hit had pretty high amounts with less moisture moving W to E. I don't see why that would change this go around...The Euro shows pwats of upward of 1.5" (spots pushing 2"!) in the warm sector available to wrap back into the cold air, with a large area of 0.6"+ in the cold sector. I totally buy the potential for extreme cold sector qpf and snow amounts unless the system ends up a sheared out pos. Orientation W-E vs SW to NE matters less than available moisture. With this system, should it come close to what's modeled on Euro or further maxes out will likely have, in addition to antecedent Pac moisture, additional deep layer tropical Pac moisture drawn northward as it matures, which was easily seen on w/v with just this past system and GHDII as recent examples. In addition, once it emerges into the Plains you'll ramp up low level moisture advection from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:27 AM, RCNYILWX said: The Euro shows pwats of upward of 1.5" in the warm sector available to wrap back into the cold air. I totally buy the potential for extreme cold sector qpf and snow amounts unless the system ends up a sheared out pos. Orientation W-E vs SW to NE matters less than available moisture. With this system, should it come close to what's modeled on Euro or further maxes out will likely have additional deep layer tropical Pac moisture drawn northward as it matures, which was easily seen on w/v with just this past system and GHDII as recent examples. In addition, once it emerges into the Plains you'll ramp up low level moisture advection from the Gulf. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Expand Yeah the Pacific moisture feed is very abundant, noted by all the rain they are getting in the SW today. Even low vis, currently 1SM at Las Vegas due to light rain and mist. I don't remember the last time they had low vis like that due to precip and moisture abundance in Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I've had several moments of GHD II flashbacks with this one and the GEFS continues to come in better than the op, which is exactly how it went with that storm for several days. The GEFS led the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:15 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks good for the first siggy snow since November. I'd prelim call for 4-6" imby, but it's pretty obvious looking at the dynamics involved that the max band is going to drop 1'+, probably south of here. In Bermuda this weekend, so the only thing I'll be shovelling is mixed drinks into my gut. Expand Great to be back here. It’s been a while since the last snowstorm in November. Based on model trends and gut feeling, I think this one will be a big one for the GTA. Maybe 8-12”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 12:27 AM, RCNYILWX said: The Euro shows pwats of upward of 1.5" (spots pushing 2"!) in the warm sector available to wrap back into the cold air, with a large area of 0.6"+ in the cold sector. I totally buy the potential for extreme cold sector qpf and snow amounts unless the system ends up a sheared out pos. Orientation W-E vs SW to NE matters less than available moisture. With this system, should it come close to what's modeled on Euro or further maxes out will likely have, in addition to antecedent Pac moisture, additional deep layer tropical Pac moisture drawn northward as it matures, which was easily seen on w/v with just this past system and GHDII as recent examples. In addition, once it emerges into the Plains you'll ramp up low level moisture advection from the Gulf. Expand Great points. Your AFD was quite excellent this afternoon. Eager to see 0z runs if they continue what 12z did or shift back. Obviously major shifts still possible till sampling occurs later Thurs and Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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