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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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Just now, dukeblue219 said:

Sitting in Silver Spring hoping this band materializes. Radar looks like the good stuff should be overhead by now but virtually nothing is falling. Reports from elsewhere have me eagerly watching the windows... 

There's a delay between radar picking up dendrites and the time they hit the ground. It will still be snowing nicely after the returns move away. 

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4 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

Sitting in Silver Spring hoping this band materializes. Radar looks like the good stuff should be overhead by now but virtually nothing is falling. Reports from elsewhere have me eagerly watching the windows... 

Same up here in Reisterstown.  Very small pixie dust.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestining twist with precip down near RIC. Looks like a meso low forming

Hope that stuff can translate up toward EZF just been kinda doing nothing, maybe a little sleet or rain. 31 degrees. 5.3” total so far that’s compacted to about 4” would love to add 2-4” more.....

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1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said:

Hope that stuff can translate up toward EZF just been kinda doing nothing, maybe a little sleet or rain. 31 degrees. 5.3” total so far that’s compacted to about 4” would love to add 2-4” more.....

Euro had around .15-.20 qpf between 18-0z down that way. Very curious how well the model does with this period. Looks like leesburg area is going to overperform.

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Afternoon LWX AFD:

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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis shows the weakening primary low over far western Virginia, with the strengthening secondary just northeast of Cape Hatteras. Aloft, strong shortwave is located over the upper Ohio Valley heading east toward us. With moisture influx on easterly flow thanks to the surface low to our southeast interacting with increasing lift ahead of the approaching upper trough, snow has started to expand across the region once again. Ratios appear to be lower with more liquid in the column but expect snow to continue at times through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, so we have extended warnings into if not through the evening. Expect a general 1-3 additional inches, with up to 4 or 5 possible in southern Maryland as the mixed precip there starts changing back to snow. As the upper trough moves east of the region after midnight, precip should taper off quickly, and we should end up dry late tonight. With temps staying in, or dropping back into, the 20s, re-freeze will occur on any untreated surfaces. Some freezing drizzle could occur on the ridges to the west but most areas should turn out dry by early morning. &&

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