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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

just got back from a nice little hike through cabin john.  outstanding scenery.  5.5" was about the average.

round 2 or 3 or whatever it is at this point looks very appealing at the moment.  not sure how far north and west is goes, but can't underestimate a mild atlantic.  should be interesting to see how much moisture can get thrown back here.

Short-range models have really backed off on significant totals for the last round. Looks like 3 inches max, not that I wouldn't take that, but even the area of 3 is pretty small. Most areas along 95 see mayyybe an inch.

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Just returned from 3 hours outside with my 5yo - winter wonderland! He's exhausted - I remember that dead leg feeling climbing the sledding hills.

The neighborhood streets around here were well plowed and heavily salted, so they're fine. Death band incoming!

It's been snowing without a break since 3pm yesterday. Wonderful.

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Short-range models have really backed off on significant totals for the last round. Looks like 3 inches max, not that I wouldn't take that, but even the area of 3 is pretty small. Most areas along 95 see mayyybe an inch.

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well.  3" would be pretty legit, though.  i would take that and call it a storm.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well.  3" would be pretty legit, though.  i would take that and call it a storm.

You are in a much better spot than me. Wouldn't take much of a model error combined with ratios for you to get another 3 or 4, especially looking at current radar.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

You are in a much better spot than me. Wouldn't take much of a model error combined with ratios for you to get another 3 or 4, especially looking at current radar.

well hopefully everyone can get in on the action.  it's pretty clear at this point there's re-enhancement going on of the precip, but rates n/w of 95 are tbd.  dendrites have reappeared imby, but it's not moderate which will probably be needed to get to those 2-3" totals.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well.  3" would be pretty legit, though.  i would take that and call it a storm.

Localized stuff is unpredictable. The precip is still advecting from the south. Havent even had the pivot yet. Should be a neat radar look once everything turns and gets the ne-sw orientation. I'm at 6.5" total and a clean 6" sitting on everything. If i managed another 1.5" that would be an 8" event which is 4 times what i first thought so won't here any complaining out of me 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Localized stuff is unpredictable. The precip is still advecting from the south. Havent even had the pivot yet. Should be a neat radar look once everything turns and gets the ne-sw orientation. I'm at 6.5" total and a clean 6" sitting on everything. If i managed another 1.5" that would be an 8" event which is 4 times what i first thought so won't here any complaining out of me 

yea, i've already called it a storm lol, though a couple more inches would make me call this a round.  very good storm for this area and it's only jan 13.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks like round 2 wants to fringe me too. Guess the snow gods are making up for lost time.  Guess I should have taken the fringe risk more seriously. Just assumed it would pull the last minute north bump to save me as usual. 

It will all even out next weekend while you get buried and we have a sleet glacier.  

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Localized stuff is unpredictable. The precip is still advecting from the south. Havent even had the pivot yet. Should be a neat radar look once everything turns and gets the ne-sw orientation. I'm at 6.5" total and a clean 6" sitting on everything. If i managed another 1.5" that would be an 8" event which is 4 times what i first thought so won't here any complaining out of me 

Can you tell where the edge of the precip shield will be?  Right now radar looks bare to SW of DC but I gather that will fill in?

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