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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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Models often overdo the "second phase" of these events. and the HRRR/RAP at range are really suspect. Based on radar, things are winding down, could be some bursts here and there, sure.

Great event. So often things are boom or bust around here. Always nice to get a "standard" 4-6 inch snowstorm for the area. Like your grandpa used to frequently enjoy from DEC 1 to MAR 1 before our climate was apparently screwed up. LOL

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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

the upper level energy that originally looked like it would become a pancake is still spinning its way towards our area.  still have that piece to move through, which should add enough lift to allow some backbuilding of the precip.  just how far north and west of 95 it occurs is a wildcard.

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3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Haven’t measured since a little after 7 am, but I had 5.75” as of then and have definitely gotten up to 6” total since.

I’m in Burke, by the way.

My deck is below some pine trees, so that total is probably not accurate.  I'll measure the front yard when I go to shovel in a bit.

BTW, any good sledding hills for kids in the Burke Centre area?  Lake Barton or Burke Centre Library?  This is our first decent snow since we moved from Springfield to Burke and want to find something within walking distance.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Models often overdo the "second phase" of these events. and the HRRR/RAP at range are really suspect. Based on radar, things are winding down, could be some bursts here and there, sure.

Great event. So often things are boom or bust around here. Always nice to get a "standard" 4-6 inch snowstorm for the area. Like your grandpa used to frequently enjoy from DEC 1 to MAR 1 before our climate was apparently screwed up. LOL

Depends on where youre at. People always get nervous during this time. It will and currently is back building. Fun starts back up in next 30-45 mins for Arlington and I bet we pull 2” more. You gotta understand the ull has to transfer and consolidate the energy again. Plenty of left over water vapor to our northwest that will get pulled tighter as the ull spins up. And you see the radar fill back in pretty soon

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9:40am -- went out out 9am to do Shoveling Round #1.  Good timing as a lull moved in near end of shoveling.  At 9am, measured about 5.0"-5.25" .... and then probably a decent 0.5" more while shoveling for 1/2 hr before the lull, so approaching 5.5"-6.0"  OTG before any compacting during lull.

Current temp is at the low for the day at 26.5° after being about 27-28 at midnite.  Steady, very lite snow continuing.

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