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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow now developing across parts of
   central Virginia and Maryland is expected to persist through mid to
   late morning, with rates (around or in excess of 1 inch per hour)
   likely maximizing in the 6-10 AM EST time frame.

   DISCUSSION...A broadly cyclonic 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak
   continues to gradually develop eastward across the northern Gulf
   Coast states, with its exit region now beginning to nose to the lee
   of the southern Appalachians, toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast
   through mid to late morning.  It appears an associated broad area of
   strong upward vertical motion will include a period of strengthening
   lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis across Virginia and adjacent
   portions of the Mid Atlantic.

   Across central Virginia into adjacent portions of central Maryland,
   where temperature profiles are expected to remain entirely below
   freezing, models indicate that lift may begin to become maximized
   within the favorable mixed-phase layer for dendritic ice crystal
   growth by daybreak, and continue through mid to late morning.  Aided
   by relatively high precipitable water content (up to around .70
   inches), one or more bands of heavy snow, at rates around or in
   excess of 1 inch per hour, appear possible.  Forecast soundings
   suggest that this may persist for a 3-4 hour period at any
   particular location, generally in a narrow corridor from the
   vicinity of the Blue Ridge, north of Roanoke VA, east/northeastward
   through southern portions of the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore
   Metropolitan Area.

 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, Jebman said:
Hey look guys, I CAN go to bed. You HAVE to stay up and watch the snow, I don't, I am not actually in N VA. I'll check back in with ya in a few.

Where u live now? Why did you move?

My late Dad passed in June 2018. I moved to south central Texas on Aug 26 2018. But I still enjoy tracking Mid Atlantic snows.

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Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
446 AM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 3
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters
and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our
home page at weather.gov/baltimore

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MARYLAND

...Anne Arundel County...
   Upper Marlboro 4 E     3.2   152 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         

...Baltimore County...
   Glyndon 1 SW           2.5   151 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         
   Long Green 2 NW        2.0   200 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         

...Carroll County...
   Westminster 2 SE       4.0   400 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         
   Oakland  NE            3.5   345 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         

...Frederick County...
   Bloomfield 2 WSW       4.0   200 AM  1/13  NWS Employee            

...Harford County...
   Bel Air                3.3   321 AM  1/13  Local Official          

...Howard County...
   Simpsonville 1 SSE     4.7   415 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         

...Prince Georges County...
   University Park 1 E    4.0   339 AM  1/13  NWS Office              

...St. Marys County...
   California 3 W         4.0   352 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         

VIRGINIA

...City of Manassas Park...
   Manassas Park 1 SW     2.6   200 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         

...Fairfax County...
   Chantilly 2 N          5.3   432 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         
   Newington              4.3   351 AM  1/13  NWS Employee            
   Chantilly 2 ESE        3.1   150 AM  1/13  NWS Employee            

...Fauquier County...
   Greenwich 1 W          3.5   400 AM  1/13  Other Federal           

...Loudoun County...
   Dulles International   5.1   444 AM  1/13  Airport                 

...Nelson County...
   Elma 2 SW              3.0   300 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         

...Prince William County...
   Dale City 2 NNW        3.5   330 AM  1/13  County Emrg Mgmt        

WEST VIRGINIA

...Mineral County...
   Keyser                 5.4   325 AM  1/13  Trained Spotter         
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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

4 inches north Balt city. Given radar, this will easily be the first legit warning criteria snow for my zip code since the huge January 2016 storm. Almost three years between verified warning level storms - this is truly welcome.

Hopefully the first of many!

Radar looks loaded to the SW. 

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