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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Three inches north Balt city and now snowing hard with big flakes.

this ob brought to you by...a puppy. Puppies! Natures snow measuring alarm!

Ratios are helping central md no doubt. Seeing reports in MD higher than NoVA. 4.25” and moderate snow here in western EC

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

IAD reports 3.8" at 2:25am per latest PNS

BWI was 1.8" and DCA 1.9" both at 12:00am

BWI should be above 3” right now. Reports of 4+ in Montgomery and Howard counties and 3” in north Baltimore city and AA county. BWI falls in there for sure. 

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The latest from LWX:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is largely on track this morning as surface low moves
eastward from Tennessee and redevelops along the North Carolina
coastline before moving east-northeastward and out to sea
tonight. At the same time, the upper level trough will close off
this afternoon and track overhead this evening.

Widespread light to moderate snow is being observed this morning
with generally 2-4" already reported across the area as of 3 AM.
Continued light to moderate snow, with occasional heavier
bursts, is expected through today for much of the region as
isentropic lift and upper level forcing persist through the day,
with a couple exceptions. Drier air will work into portions of
northern/western MD and eastern WV after sunrise, and this will
curtail snow amounts/intensity. Additionally, warmer air will
push northward into portions of central VA and southern MD,
introducing sleet/rain/freezing rain to that region heading into
Sunday morning. Between these areas the most significant
amounts are expected to occur. Models are also indicating that a
deformation band may occur again late this afternoon and
evening as the upper level low traverses, and this is currently
progged to occur near the I-95 corridor, with the localized
highest amounts likely where this sets up.

Total snowfall amounts expected to range from 6-10" across the DC
metro area and across much of northern VA,
tapering to 4-7" north
towards the PA/MD border where drier air will cut down on amounts,
and 4-8" towards southern MD and central VA near
Spotsylvania/Orange/Albemarle where mixing occurs. In these
areas, a light glaze to up to a tenth of an inch of ice is
also forecast.

Snow will then taper off and end during the overnight hours.

Highs today generally 28-35F, with lows tonight in the 20s.

&&
 

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2hs0wty.png

When you have over 4” and you realize the storm has barely even begun :D Look at Those bands heading into VA! Going to be sleet / IR for some down there. It’ should be SN++ For dc and points north when it arrives. 

LWX update is spot on... people should be looking for sleet freezing rain snow mix in parts of Virginia, south of 66. Whomever remains all snow, just north of that boundary, will jackpot. They also mention the deform band the HRRR RAPP and NAM have been pointing to. This band is progged to hit the 95 corridor if it comes to fruition  

Going to be a very interesting next couple of hours as far as how everything sets up. Anxious to see where the coastal gets going. Precip is plentiful and temps are holding steady here in central md

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7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I mean, the radar looks superb for pretty much all of us, for hours and hours.

Get ready for that deform band later on man. Looks like central md over to i - 95 corridor around Baltimore and the eastern shore get rocked this afternoon by a deform from the coastal. LWX finally picking up what models have been hinting at for 18 hours or so

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