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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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1 hour ago, Snow36 said:

Jebman, sorry for butting in. You and your posts literally symbolize the epitome of the enthusiasm that drives half the board to be weather enthusiasts. I honestly don't think this forum [and the predecessor] would be the same without your posts. Don't trivialize them! 

Okay.

I would like to suggest that folks go out at 3am with headphones on, playing your favorite music. Walk around where there are streetlights. Once you have seen huge dendrites falling by the streetlights, you will be hooked for life. Harness your enthusiasm. Help out as many ppl as you can with your shovel. Dig em out (if you want to).

Many of you have 3 inches otg already. Run very fast as you get all excited about the snow! Try to kick up plumes of pow as you run! I used to do this all the time in Dale City! You might yell Wooooooo Hooooooo a couple of times too! Fully engage with the storm! Breathe in the snow laden air deeply. SAVOR the beautiful smell of snow victory!

Savor a long leisurely snow jebwalk. Soak in the zen beauty of falling flakes of pure snow. Realize that you will see snowfall for at least another 22 hours! Sneak and walk thru other people's yards. I used to do this a lot when I was a teenager! Its really satisfying, and liberating, when you jebwalk thru snow that is not yours lmao! Don't I know it. ESPECIALLY  DRIFTS! That, is a rush!!!!!

The best snow, is stolen snow lol!

Shovel the snow whenever you like, but what I'd like to suggest, is blast your headphones while you dig snow. You want the songs you listen to to remind you of snow forever. Carefully shovel every. last. flake. off of your driveway, walk and road, and pile it all up extremely high. Show off your inner snow weenie! Feel free to obsess about the snowpack! Try to pile the snow to the north of sun blocking objects such as a car left parked all the time, an old camper, your house, a wood fence, anything that blocks that HATED sun! You want to preserve your snow as long as possible. You want to fly your freak flag, in the form of ridiculously tall and bulky snow piles that effectively advertise to all the world, that you are a snow enthusiast!

Pile them as high as you can. Wetter snows pile very high easily. Drier snows will have to have very wide bases. The point is, you want to pile as much snow as possible, to try and keep it as long as you can until the next snowstorm! You want to have snow to look at and to inspire your inner snow weenie every day when you get up and look outside! Pile that snow up! Enjoy immensely and to the max, every shovelful of snow! Pile the snow from your driveways, walkways, from the top of your cars, and the road. You have not truly paid homage to the Snow Gods and to snow itself, until you have cleared part of your ROAD and lovingly piled that snow up in your yard like the Legendary Midlo. (thats the living legend who uses snow generators to pile snow on his lawn).

Pray for snow. Wish for snow. Talk to all of your friends about snow. You ARE a snow expert. Text your friends and give em the 'ole update. Show the world at large your enthusiasm for winter storms. Make snow videos. Go out like BNVN1/Storm Chasing in your car, get videos of big snowstorms!!! Like this video for example, he has many, he even covered Hurricane Michael too!

 

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6 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Trying to keep myself up because I don't want to miss what may be the best part of this storm. I don't know if I'll make it. 

You can sleep when you are dead. Drink coffee. I used to go thru cups and cups of the stuff at CharlesTown when I went there just to see snow when Dale City had rain, lol. Of course I stayed up all night, played quarter slots a little, watched the snow some. Red Bull helps too.

Try to stay up and enjoy the snow.

Then again, its gonna snow til 1am Monday.

The best thing about tryin to stay awake in a big snow like this is, you fall asleep. You have a vivid dream that your town got 17 inches of pow. You wake up, your discover you actually DO have 17 inches of  snow, and the Conditional Symmetric Instability has parked on top of your back yard and it snows for another 18 hours, because for some reason the mets never really figured out, the deform is moving very slow. In fact it retrogrades a bit. Then it pivots directly over your back yard.

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Three inches north Balt city and now snowing hard with big flakes.

this ob brought to you by...a puppy. Puppies! Natures snow measuring alarm!

Ratios are helping central md no doubt. Seeing reports in MD higher than NoVA. 4.25” and moderate snow here in western EC

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

IAD reports 3.8" at 2:25am per latest PNS

BWI was 1.8" and DCA 1.9" both at 12:00am

BWI should be above 3” right now. Reports of 4+ in Montgomery and Howard counties and 3” in north Baltimore city and AA county. BWI falls in there for sure. 

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The latest from LWX:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is largely on track this morning as surface low moves
eastward from Tennessee and redevelops along the North Carolina
coastline before moving east-northeastward and out to sea
tonight. At the same time, the upper level trough will close off
this afternoon and track overhead this evening.

Widespread light to moderate snow is being observed this morning
with generally 2-4" already reported across the area as of 3 AM.
Continued light to moderate snow, with occasional heavier
bursts, is expected through today for much of the region as
isentropic lift and upper level forcing persist through the day,
with a couple exceptions. Drier air will work into portions of
northern/western MD and eastern WV after sunrise, and this will
curtail snow amounts/intensity. Additionally, warmer air will
push northward into portions of central VA and southern MD,
introducing sleet/rain/freezing rain to that region heading into
Sunday morning. Between these areas the most significant
amounts are expected to occur. Models are also indicating that a
deformation band may occur again late this afternoon and
evening as the upper level low traverses, and this is currently
progged to occur near the I-95 corridor, with the localized
highest amounts likely where this sets up.

Total snowfall amounts expected to range from 6-10" across the DC
metro area and across much of northern VA,
tapering to 4-7" north
towards the PA/MD border where drier air will cut down on amounts,
and 4-8" towards southern MD and central VA near
Spotsylvania/Orange/Albemarle where mixing occurs. In these
areas, a light glaze to up to a tenth of an inch of ice is
also forecast.

Snow will then taper off and end during the overnight hours.

Highs today generally 28-35F, with lows tonight in the 20s.

&&
 

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2hs0wty.png

When you have over 4” and you realize the storm has barely even begun :D Look at Those bands heading into VA! Going to be sleet / IR for some down there. It’ should be SN++ For dc and points north when it arrives. 

LWX update is spot on... people should be looking for sleet freezing rain snow mix in parts of Virginia, south of 66. Whomever remains all snow, just north of that boundary, will jackpot. They also mention the deform band the HRRR RAPP and NAM have been pointing to. This band is progged to hit the 95 corridor if it comes to fruition  

Going to be a very interesting next couple of hours as far as how everything sets up. Anxious to see where the coastal gets going. Precip is plentiful and temps are holding steady here in central md

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