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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now...I often hear the more experienced folks on here say the srefs are useless. So...what are they actually good for, then? Lol

SREFs have burned us many times. They can appear to be very stubborn which makes it seem that they have caught on to some trend ahead of the other models, but then it turns out they are just crap and were way off the whole time.

People also forget to take out the outliers (high and low) to produce the mean. There are some real garbage members in there (various ARW - Always Really Wet and NMM - Never Much Moisture runs) that always mess up the mean.

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Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I can't believe the 00z NAM brings the 0c line all the way up to DC. 

That’s good and bad.  Depending on what side you are on.  One thing for certain this is not cold smoke snow.  It’s awesone but not all that wispy right now. 

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