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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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Just now, nj2va said:

Starting to get into the range (useful is another question) of HRRR (get ready for the roller coaster!).  But it has onset in the mountains of WV around Snowshoe in the mid morning, Canaan/Garrett County late morning, and then the 81 corridor by early to mid afternoon.  

hr 18 shows mixing fwinw

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50 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Not as many stars out. Groundbis frozen solid. Whatever comes our way the next 48 hours should stick nicely 

With those nice cold temps, you have solid surface frigidization.

That means that the snow will stick, from flake 1. And it will pile up.

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3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

With those nice cold temps, you have solid surface frigidization.

That means that the snow will stick, from flake 1. And it will pile up.

And not to leave anything to chance I’m having my sister visit from Richmond this weekend. She had like a foot in December. Add that to frigidization and we are going to get shellacked

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3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

26/11

Just took the dog for a nice long walk. High clouds off in the distance. Stars to the east. But not to the west. It just SMELLS like a snow storm to me. Maybe a placebo effect?

You can smell snow. That's the truth. Someone should figure out the science behind that 

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18 minutes ago, Jebman said:

With those nice cold temps, you have solid surface frigidization.

That means that the snow will stick, from flake 1. And it will pile up.

I feel like jb2 should add surface frigidization to his venacular

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Missed all the 18z and 0z runs . Trying to catch up. Gettin cold

Down to 20/16 

I think the gfs took a small step back on from 18 to 0.. but it does not matter at this lead. It's locked up.. lets bring it up.  8 inch lollis

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I think what I am most happy about is not any model run or nam'ing but the fact that we are cold PRIOR to onset. There is always that chicken/egg argument about get the moisture first and let the cold figure itself out....well...I don't disagree cuz you have to have moisture to snow but dang...the cold seems pretty darn important as well.

Good luck all...see you at obs time! I've been on the 3-5" wagon for days now...final call regardless of the morning mid day model runs

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I think what I am most happy about is not any model run or nam'ing but the fact that we are cold PRIOR to onset. There is always that chicken/egg argument about get the moisture first and let the cold figure itself out....well...I don't disagree cuz you have to have moisture to snow but dang...the cold seems pretty darn important as well.

Good luck all...see you at obs time! I've been on the 3-5" wagon for days now...final call regardless of the morning mid day model runs

Given where I live, I always prefer entrenched cold air.

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