EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Noticeable thickening of cloud deck the last 15 min. Wont be long. Gonna climb the roof and get a look west to North Mountain to see when it crosses the range! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Adding up the lower bounds of the precipitation 6 hr maps I get about 0.5 inches for DC, so it should be a good run. Looks like DC gets near .6-.7 and Bal gets .4-.5 about a .1 or .2 increase for both cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, heavy_wx said: Just for fun, here is a good example of mesoscale banding indicated by some diagnostics of the 12z NAM. The 750 mb heights (black), frontogenesis, and saturation equivalent potential vorticity (SEPV) are plotted above. SEPV is a measure of the stability of air parcels to slantwise and/or vertical displacements in a saturated environment. Regions of negative SEPV have been associated with mesoscale precipitation bands in winter storms. You can see that there is a band of negative SEPV from east of the Delmarva to northern MD, to the north of the closed 750-mb height contour. There is also enhanced 750-mb frontogenesis in this region, associated with a thermally direct circulation (i.e., warm air rising to the south, cold air sinking north). This circulation provides lift, and in the aforementioned environment of conditional stability, leads to enhanced vertical motion within the general synoptic ascent. An important thing to note with these diagonistics is that these circulations and regions of conditional instability occur within layers of the atmosphere, and are often sloped. For example, here is the same plot but for 850 mb: You can see here that the main region of conditional instability and enhanced frontogenesis is displaced to the south over central VA and SE MD. These two levels are different horizontal slices through the same circulation; in this case the circulation is sloped to the north with height. Where this circulation intersects the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) is often where the most intense banded precipitation occurs, due to the region having the most efficient ice crystal growth and aggregation. For more information, this is one good resource: http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/CAP_Projects/Project6/Mesoscale_Structure/seminar (M. Greenstein).ppt I've been waiting for you to chime in Heavy. Good to hear from you on this one. Looks like your area will be getting the goods down there in Laurel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 24/18 with first few flurries in McHenry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, BrianW said: I am in DC for a wedding tonight and have a jetblue flight back to Hartford from Reagan airport at 5 pm tomorrow. Thoughts on that flight happening? We were planning on taking a cab or uber to the airport. Looking forward to the storm though. Its been pretty much snowless back home in CT. It depends on the details of your plane's inbound flight. And based on your route, your scheduled plane has a couple stops at Reagan before your flight. But since the actual inbound is from Orlando, you might be OK. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N203JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pogoism9 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 EZF is quiet currently, but certainly getting colder. Bring it on! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Thickening clouds here in Rehoboth Beach and 34. Good luck to all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, smokeybandit said: It depends on the details of your plane's inbound flight. And based on your route, your scheduled plane has a couple stops at Reagan before your flight. But since the actual inbound is from Orlando, you might be OK. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N203JB Jet Blue 1098 is my flight tomorrow at 530 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I've been waiting for you to chime in Heavy. Good to hear from you on this one. Looks like your area will be getting the goods down there in Laurel Yeah, hopefully it will be a good storm for us down here (my first). It will certainly be interesting to see how the banding sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 One thing to note is Every run of the HRRR is increasing the southerly 850mb flow. Moisture is really being fed from the Gulf and Atlantic its a pretty deep tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Beachin said: Looks like DC gets near .6-.7 and Bal gets .4-.5 about a .1 or .2 increase for both cities. Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Very nice band of snow moving through down here. Hoping the snow/ice line will decide to setup just to my south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Not really I was going off the MM Conversion but thanks ! Its still improved from 00z. Do you have that run for comparison ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, yoda said: Pummels PWC. And one more North shift and some of our MD friends get in the mix 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Really dry air up here dewpoint hovering in lower single digits. Delay of onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 LOL at parsing the UKMET precip map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Not really 00z run for ref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 First flakes at the house. Very fine and small flakes at that. Can barely see the mountain over toward Blacksburg where @Disc is at. Should be picking up here shortly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, BrianW said: Jet Blue 1098 is my flight tomorrow at 530 pm. You should be good by 5:30. Could easily be delays but my guess is runways will easily be plowed and open by late afternoom. Deicing and arrival delays could mess with the schedule but outright cancellations are unlikely...unless a deathband sets up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 So the UK met looks the worst out of all the other models right now. Would be a outlier for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Quick help here. Best radar app. Radarscope? Need to buy in on ASAP. WeatherBug blows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 First flakes! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Quick help here. Best radar app. Radarscope? Need to buy in on ASAP. WeatherBug blows. RadarScope is def the way to go. Worth the money for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Quick help here. Best radar app. Radarscope? Need to buy in on ASAP. WeatherBug blows. yessir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Quick help here. Best radar app. Radarscope? Need to buy in on ASAP. WeatherBug blows. Radarscope and it's not even a question. Download that app now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Quick help here. Best radar app. Radarscope? Need to buy in on ASAP. WeatherBug blows. Radarscope works for me pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Beachin said: So the UK met looks the worst out of all the other models right now. Would be a outlier for sure "Worst of all the models" would still give me 6-7" or more. But I think the GFS is similar though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Quick help here. Best radar app. Radarscope? Need to buy in on ASAP. WeatherBug blows. Yep. RadarScope is worth the $10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 35.4 / 18 rn in downtown DC https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KDCWASHI234 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: First flakes! Enjoy my man! Hope you get wrecked out there. Looks promising from everything I've seen along I-81 in VA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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