Cobalt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 34 degrees here. Super stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Snowboard is in the yard! Roads have been brined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 31/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I’m ready for what the NAM is bringing too... 10 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Cmc looks more like the gfs than the nams/icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 FV3 has the 0.5” line up near Baltimore or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Beachin said: Absolute destruction ahahahhahahah Nice pivot all the way back into Carroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Might’ve been a stray flake or two but as far as I could tell the precipitation near Culpeper is mostly virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: I’m ready for what the NAM is bringing too... A craft beer lover's dream. Damn. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 My bar is 4". Hoping for at least a decent, high-end advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 All this model agreement and I’m still skeptical deep down. 34.7/19 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 lol nam30/13, need that dew to rise soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: FV3 has the 0.5” line up near Baltimore or so. Fv3 has been really steady as locked in the short range. Much less jumpy than its older brother 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 LWX keeping expected snowfall the same but upping the max and min. Good trend up to game time. I am a little on the outside looking in but increasing my bar to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Oops, now it’s snowing. -SN just SW of Culpeper. Didn’t take a lot to moisten the column. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like most of the region will be upgraded to WSW later. Potential for 6" exists for most places based on latest runs. "Most"? Can't see that reaching up to Baltimore...I mean, could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc looks more like the gfs than the nams/icon Cmc doesn’t quite have that conveyor belt of moisture feed between during the period when the hand over of the low starts taking place at the coast like you see on the 12k. But I see the cmc trying to setup similar banding structure as the nam. Wasn’t a full move by any means towards nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: I’m ready for what the NAM is bringing too... Scraff gets it. You guys had better look out. The usual deathbanding is imminent. NWS KLWX has seen the potential CSI banding potential. I noticed that yesterday afternoon in the modeling. You guys are about to get shredded by snow tonight well on into Sunday. I see they expanded the WSW's well north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: LWX keeping expected snowfall the same but upping the max and min. Good trend up to game time. I am a little on the outside looking in but increasing my bar to 4". makes sense. LWX has been rock solid so far. Nothing has happened yet so no reason to up things too much and get silly. Slow and steady. Good approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: "Most"? Can't see that reaching up to Baltimore...I mean, could it? Majority of the models get WSW criteria to the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: "Most"? Can't see that reaching up to Baltimore...I mean, could it? 4-6 is reasonable for Baltimore unless the Euro craps the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: LWX keeping expected snowfall the same but upping the max and min. Good trend up to game time. I am a little on the outside looking in but increasing my bar to 4". I'm a little north of you and my bar is set at 3. Up here we just haven't gotten the bump up that the dc folks have gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just wanted to pop in and say good luck to everyone in this subforum. You all have been very welcoming to us Northerners and I am genuinely excited to see y'all cash-in. Hope it exceeds expectations! 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 has been really steady as locked in the short range. Much less jumpy than its older brother Yep. We’ll see after all is said and done but I’ve liked it’s performace in the last few days from a consistency standpoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I would take the globals and smooth out the precip maps on them. They aren't going to be too good at nailing anything too specific in that regard. Snow max could end up anywhere from RIC to Mason/Dixon line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: I'm a little north of you and my bar is set at 3. Up here we just haven't gotten the bump up that the dc folks have gotten. yep...not quite the excitement up this far but I think our fail scenario (in my mind) of 1-3" is becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 4-6 is reasonable for Baltimore unless the Euro craps the bed. Ha...gonna be interesting to watch! See I've had a little petty peeve the last couple years...Wanna see 5 inches again so Baltimore can have our first verified WSW (last year fell just short by .2 inches at BWI, lolL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12z HRDPS .75" QPF at DCA lol EZF over an inch... BWI around 0.4 or so 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 @Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west? That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements. The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding. Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west? That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements. The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding. Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here! Yea, you're fringed on models. Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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