snowdude Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Include Kevin, he’d love to see it. Me too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Well that's a major disappointment after posters said RGEM looked better. Looks the same to me. Might even be slightly worse for the north folks. It bumped the blues further north, better for most folks but not up towards Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- Shortwave energy and overrunning will continue tonight as the upper-level low continues to shear apart and track east. The surface low will track through the Gulf Coast States before transferring its energy to a coastal low off the North and South Carolina Coast by morning. The mid-level forcing will be stronger, which is evident in most guidance, so a steadier snow is expected across the entire area. There may be just enough warm air to mix in aloft for snow to mix with sleet and freezing rain overnight across portions of central Virginia. Also, rain/sleet may also mix in across extreme southern Maryland (southern St Marys County). Otherwise, snow is expected across other locations. Coastal low pressure will move offshore Sunday, but the sheared upper-level system will pass through our area late Sunday into Sunday night. A steady snow associated with the coastal low will continue into Sunday morning before gradually tapering off to light snow and flurries during the afternoon. However, another period of steadier snow is possible late Sunday into Sunday night as the upper-level low passes through the area. The best chance for snow appears to be near and to the south/west of the Potomac River. Additional accumulations should be light, but it may be enough to cause additional problems on untreated surfaces. As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area. Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI banding is possible. For the mid-morning update, did not yet make any headline changes or forecast changes. That having been said, guidance continues to trend heavier, so it is quite possible an additional upgrade of headlines and forecast totals could be in the offing. Latest NAM and SREF are QUITE snowy (notably snowier than our forecast), but would like to see a bit more support to them before making adjustments. Still also want to point out that there is still uncertainty regarding the placement and location of any banding precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday. High pressure will return later Sunday night through Monday, bringing dry and seasonably chilly conditions. -- End Changed Discussion -- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now we're talkin That is a big run right there. First global to go big on the coastal enhancement idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Well that's a major disappointment after posters said RGEM looked better. Looks the same to me. Might even be slightly worse for the north folks. You know by now that snow is a major IMBY sport. What looks good for one person might not for another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Not expecting much from the gfs when that does come here shortly, but 6z was headed in a better direction at least. Like bob, love what I see on the icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 KCOU and KSTL will approach records, according to their NWS office. Both should get well over a foot. KCOU already above 1' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now we're talkin That must be wrong since Anne Arundel has the most precip out of all Central MD counties. That never happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It bumped the blues further north, better for most folks but not up towards Baltimore. Yeah Baltimore seems to be a dividing line this time, lol (unfortunately!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah Baltimore seems to be a dividing line this time, lol (unfortunately!) Just a few more miles north please... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: It’s a little bit better for just about everyone than 6z. rgem nudged north. it's not a wallop like the icon and nam, but a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Icon trend map 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah Baltimore seems to be a dividing line this time, lol (unfortunately!) Just hug the icon and nams until something better comes along. We're in chips fall mode anyway. Jackpot tbd means not known until the event is over. These progressions are twisty turney. No model will nail exact placement of best banding/dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Based off the GEFS 6z being north and the trend map GFS will be north and improved Running now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 About to drive through the likely virga around Culpeper. I’ll let you guys know if I see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Well that's a major disappointment after posters said RGEM looked better. Looks the same to me. Might even be slightly worse for the north folks. Looks better around DC but Baltimore not as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS immediately has higher heights at hour 6. Considering its only 6 hours id consider it a sizable amplification jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Just hug the icon and nams until something better comes along. We're in chips fall mode anyway. Jackpot tbd means not known until the event is over. These progressions are twisty turney. No model will nail exact placement of best banding/dynamics. The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Friend in Orange seeing a few flakes now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Closed 500 Low on GFS @ 12hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 My clouds are starting to get cloudier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS wetter with the overrunning through 18 hours... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS is about to make people have faith in the NAM haha. Looks very similar thus far Finally has the longer closed low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 looks better and looks similar? OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Big hit incoming on the GFS 0c 850s Approaching Fredericksburg hour 18. 850s flooding moist air north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12Z NAM is something else. Great storm incoming. Enjoy everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Friend in Orange seeing a few flakes now Radar off to my southwest looks tasty. Will let you guys know how that performs. Virga will only be so long with returns showing up like that entering western VA. I’m thinking SE flow will def help some down this way with lift and moisture transport. Good luck up that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, DCAlexandria said: looks better and looks similar? OK Better than last GFS run and similar to NAM is what he means. Not sure I agree to that extent, but gfs has improved again it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 GFS seems less strung out than 06z by a little. Meanwhile there are some good radar returns in SWVA moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS is amplifying more and more every single run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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