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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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Looks like the 10-12” was mostly confined to between 66 and 70, with a localized jackpot of 12-14” in eastern Montgomery county. Totals slowly dropped off to the south and east, with a general 6-10”. North, the cutoff was sharper, as our posters from northern Carroll and Baltimore counties have lamented, with 3-6” there quickly increasing as you moved south.

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5 hours ago, Amped said:

The HRRR kept saying this band would move south,but it's still drifting north.

HRRR was very bouncy and not reliable today. One run this morning had almost no precip in Loudoun for the duration of the storm

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

starting to think winchester is not a good place for snow as you would think unless you get the rare coastal hugger

Its usually very good. We do awesome with coastals. We can also score from LE streamers and clippers as well. This was just one of those storms where the favored areas didnt get the jack. It happens occasionally.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Its usually very good. We do awesome with coastals. We can also score from LE streamers and clippers as well. This was just one of those storms where the favored areas didnt get the jack. It happens occasionally.

just feels your a tad west sometimes...but you do really well at temps and being ice when the rest of us are rain. I do remember a storm in the 90s, where Leesburg was rain and you all got 4-8 inches

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

just feels your a tad west sometimes...but you do really well at temps and being ice when the rest of us are rain. I do remember a storm in the 90s, where Leesburg was rain and you all got 4-8 inches

Dec 92 was one such instance. Just west of Winchester, over a foot...2 feet across the Wv line, and mostly rain east of BR. Same winter as the big blizzard which produced a lot more snow west of the Br. But you make a good point Ji, it seems to happen a lot less than 15 to 20 years ago. I lived in Winchester until 2017. We did get about 35-36 inches from the Jan 16 blizzard which I think was about on par or greater than Loudoun. There was also that March snow in '13 or '14 which busted badly near the beltway. We had about 14-15 inches in Frederick County, VA. 

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Thanks Don S and how have you been?

Heres a question for anybody

Its calm winds most  of the event and then around 3pm winds gusted over 20 for about 10 minutes, lots of snow blobs came  out of trees, and then it stopped . No change in immediate weather and no such windyness since?

i

 

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11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thanks Don S and how have you been?

Heres a question for anybody

Its calm winds most  of the event and then around 3pm winds gusted over 20 for about 10 minutes, lots of snow blobs came  out of trees, and then it stopped . No change in immediate weather and no such windyness since?

i

 

Happened here too. That's when my sleet and freezing drizzle turned back to snow and the direction of the flakes came from due north.

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28 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Dec 92 was one such instance. Just west of Winchester, over a foot...2 feet across the Wv line, and mostly rain east of BR. Same winter as the big blizzard which produced a lot more snow west of the Br. But you make a good point Ji, it seems to happen a lot less than 15 to 20 years ago. I lived in Winchester until 2017. We did get about 35-36 inches from the Jan 16 blizzard which I think was about on par or greater than Loudoun. There was also that March snow in '13 or '14 which busted badly near the beltway. We had about 14-15 inches in Frederick County, VA. 

We almost always get more than east of us during coastal storms. It is exceedingly rare when that isnt the case. We jacked out here for 96, 03 and 16. Sometime PSU and the guys up on Parrs Ridge do a little better. But generally we do fine. And our average annual supports that. We definitely do better with a storm that runs up the coastal plain though. That is true.

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3 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Happened here too. That's when my sleet and freezing drizzle turned back to snow and the direction of the flakes came from due north.

My guess is some sort of lift or convection briefly mixed winds. Reminds me of the temporary breeze you feel in front of a shower. Today's precip was upper level and instability driven. Curious what direction the breeze was out of.

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Still snowing -- very light but still going. That makes 36 hrs since first flakes. Awesome overall storm for duration of falling snow including daytime. I think we'll wrap up with about 8.5" total. 

@Jebman - my 3 year old son apparently decided it was time to start his Jebwalk training as of tonight. The Mrs was giving him a bath while I went out on the front steps to measure the snow...next thing I know he pops out the front door, runs out into the yard, and opens his mouth to catch the nice big flakes coming down. Very cute.....and then I noticed the ONLY thing he had on was a pair of flip flops. 

Wasn't it @stormtracker who mentioned something about running in the streets nekkid if this storm verified? He's got to do better -- my 3yo been there done that.

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