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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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7 minutes ago, H2O said:

It snowed a little bit more after I went to bed and got another tenth or so. 

 

Final call:8.7”

DCA beat me. Jesus that’s embarrassing 

DCA beat me too.

9.8” on 1.01” precip.  Almost perfectly a 10:1 ratio on the storm

However, and I don’t know if this held everywhere, but ratios were terrible yesterday.  8:1 here.  I’m guessing it was the non-accumulating snow from 7am to 2pm that did it.

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11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA beat me too.

9.8” on 1.01” precip.  Almost perfectly a 10:1 ratio on the storm

However, and I don’t know if this held everywhere, but ratios were terrible yesterday.  8:1 here.  I’m guessing it was the non-accumulating snow from 7am to 2pm that did it.

That period of light stuff ranged from snizzle to zr to sleet for me at times. It only went all snow again once the consistent banding set up

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I didn’t really notice any non-snow forms here, but there were a lot of needle snowflakes which are just awful for accumulation.

Same in annapolis never wet just needle’e what’s it looking like for Thursday into Friday I think we get some frozen before we change to light rain. Your thoughts ?


.
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45 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

Frustration reigns when there are sharp cutoffs. Hell...I was annoyed watching the evening band set up 20-30 miles north of me even though it had already dropped good amounts as it came through here and left me with close to double digits.

February 10, 2010 dropped 8-9” here in Burke. Had one really intense band in mid-morning, and it snowed for quite a few hours, but definitely missed out on bigger totals in my neck of the woods.

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell. 

We had a 20 minute part 2 around 4pm. And that burst probably added .25" 

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15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I didn’t really notice any non-snow forms here, but there were a lot of needle snowflakes which are just awful for accumulation.

I had dendrites on Saturday evening and then Sunday evening.  Not sure overnight Saturday into Sunday.  But during daytime Sunday, it was mostly all needles and snowTV.  

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This for me is my 3rd favorite storm since moving to this area in 2009. 

1. Feb 5-6, 2010

2. Jan 20-21, 2016

3. This

The reason I put this ahead of Feb 9-10 is because this one was a big reverse bust and broke a big streak of no good storms.  Even halfway through the storm we weren’t sure if it was over.  Last night around 7:45 walking the dog was one of my favorite jebwalks ever. 

**disclaimer, I was out of town for Dec 2009

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7.5 total. Only 1.75 from round 2. I was about 15 miles too far south and east of the goods. In that several hour lull, I had sleet and freezing rain/drizzle. The round 2 bands set up about 40 miles north of what was modeled. As usual. Pretty uniform totals across PWC with 7 to 11 inches reported east to west. 

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

It was nice to see DCA reach 10" for the first time since the January 22-23, 2016 mega snowstorm. Hopefully, all locations in the region will cash in with even larger amounts as the pattern continues to evolve toward a cold and potentially snowy one.

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Oh my god guys, I have a pile of snow that is 3' high from shoveling. My son now has a tiny shovel that a neighbor gave me. I really got to meet all of my neighbors who helped a clueless person like me figure out how to deal with all the snow. This is great. Bonus pictures! 11.5" was my final snowfall amount.

 

SNOW IS AWESOME!

 

JXEZcPx.jpg

 

i1dyCZN.jpg

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Oh my god guys, I have a pile of snow that is 3' high from shoveling. My son now has a tiny shovel that a neighbor gave me. I really got to meet all of my neighbors who helped a clueless person like me figure out how to deal with all the snow. This is great. Bonus pictures! 11.5" was my final snowfall amount.

 

SNOW IS AWESOME!

 

JXEZcPx.jpg

 

i1dyCZN.jpg

Congrats, man!  Happy you finally got to experience a great storm.

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6 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

we got into heavy bands for several hours yesterday afternoon.  at one point my visibility was down to 1/8 mile.

Wow.  I didn't get anything like that.  Hours of non accumulating  snizzle, until about 2pm.  Decent rates until about 330.  Picked up about an inch during that 90 min period.  After that it was just pixie dust until after 10 PM.  Picked up about another inch over those 7 hours.  Really poor ratio snow; it was like sweeping sand.  Pretty dense.

 

Remarkable for how long it snowed, but equally for how little I got.  The length of this storm (33 hours) nearly matched the '96 storm, but with vastly different results.

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