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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z NAM shows an unusual distribution of snowfall centered around Washington, DC (where I believe 3"-6" is likely with locally higher amounts). The NAM shows 10" or more snow at DCA, less than 3" at Philadelphia, and no snow at New York City (where I believe no measurable snow will be reported). The only storm since 1950 that had 8" or more at DCA, <3" at PHL, and no snow at New York City occurred on March 9-10, 1999.

Accumulations during that storm were:

Baltimore: 4.6"
New York City: None
Philadelphia: 0.1"
Richmond: 0.8"
Salisbury: 5.4"
Sterling: 8.9"
Washington, DC: 8.4"

Great illustration of how the north trend works.

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Great illustration of how the north trend works.

But not for this storm. It shows the strength of the confluence to the north. Typically, when Washington picks up 6" or more, PHL does much better than what the NAM showed.

Hopefully, the NAM's idea will verify, as the DC region has not had much snowfall during the past two prior winters.

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