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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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The intensity of this evening snow in DC clearly caught a lot of people off guard, rightly or wrongly. Just walked 20 blocks —- whereas city snow plows were lined up on every few blocks before the first flake fell yesterday, didn’t see one this evening. And major hotels and business that usually have an army of workers at the ready to clear each 1/2 inch off sidewalks, had completely snow-packed sidewalks.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro nailed the band out there. Underdid qpf but placement was perfect. 

Euro well with qpf leading in. Was showing .65 iad/.70 dca/.50 bwi (going off memory). Not bad at all.

Yup, I think that is what the Euro was showing for this event yesterday.  Wasn't it also calling for an additional 0.25-0.30 or there about from 1PM onward (in today's 12Z run...maybe that's what you mean about the band)?

(ETA:  So maybe...if the Euro kind of led the way on this one for QPF, it may well be correct with that crazy 1"+ of ice next weekend! :lol:)

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Man...I was feeling good about getting 4.5 inches out of this until I saw all of you up near 10. Are any of you near Baltimore? That would be the ultimate punch to the gut lol. 

4.3" just north of the beltway. But it's often the other way around too, especially when mixing is involved.

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4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup, I think that is what the Euro was showing for this event yesterday.  Wasn't it also calling for an additional 0.25-0.30 or there about from 1PM onward (in today's 12Z run...maybe that's what you mean about the band)?

The outer band moved around a lot but the 12z run today showed a bullseye out in winchester and wv panhandle. Was too low. 

Eta: euro missed the leesburg/upper moco/hoco jackpot between 18-0z. Upper level stuff is really hard to nail placement. That type of precip is almost always a nowcast deal

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

4.3" just north of the beltway. But it's often the other way around too, especially when mixing is involved.

I measured 4 inches this morning towards the end of the last real burst of snow. Other than a light on and off dusting I haven't had anything since about 10 or 11am. I'm right next to 83 less than a mile south of the train station.

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1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

The Northern trend was real in this storm.  We thought Fredericksburg was the bullseye, and then just south of DC. And the short term models keeps moving a bit north. But just south really suffered from the mix and north and west did very well!  

The ironic thing is the reason the snow totals ended up being much higher than we thought is the same reason it wasn't cold smoke. Lol. I'm good with that. The afternoon snow was very high ratio.

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