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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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2 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

We didn't finish very well here in eastern Prince William. Just came in from shoveling. Cold smoke this is not. Those hours of freezing drizzle and sleet made the snow compact like concrete. Only about 5 in on the paved driveway and walkway. The kind of snow that sticks to the shovel. Back-breaking actually. There was 7 inches on the vehicle and on elevated colder surfaces so my 7.25 looks about right. Very icy. 6.1 average ground depth. Nothing like the 10-12 many of you have. Congratulations!! Good stuff. 

Congrats! Seven inches is an amazing total! Plus, you get to go out and watch people walking like a penguin on that ice!

I might have to write about the infamous ice jebwalk of 2004.........

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Looks like I'm coming in a loser from this evening stuff. I'm in Baltimore but I've got nothing but the occasional flurries. My total has stood at 4.5 inches. It's looked like the heavy bands have been on my doorstep for hours but just aren't getting here. Does anyone know the last official measurements at BWI?

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Just now, Steve25 said:

Looks like I'm coming in a loser from this evening stuff. I'm in Baltimore but I've got nothing but the occasional flurries. My total has stood at 4.5 inches. It's looked like the heavy bands have been on my doorstep for hours but just aren't getting here. Does anyone know the last official measurements at BWI?

Not sure but BWI should have been getting really good snow the past 3-4 hours. They should be over 8 and maybe hit double digits.

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

We didn't finish very well here in eastern Prince William. Just came in from shoveling. Cold smoke this is not. Those hours of freezing drizzle and sleet made the snow compact like concrete. Only about 5 in on the paved driveway and walkway. The kind of snow that sticks to the shovel. Back-breaking actually. There was 7 inches on the vehicle and on elevated colder surfaces so my 7.25 looks about right. Very icy. 6.1 average ground depth. Nothing like the 10-12 many of you have. Congratulations!! Good stuff. 

That is what happened out my way, about 4 inches of snow, then about 2am it flipped to sleet that packed it down and about two hours of drizzle/snizzle. Heavy, heavy stuff to shovel. BUT, it is white and pretty! Been snowing lightly past 2 hours, coated everything back over, looks like another 0.3, but I'll measure here in a few.

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Hit the 10.0" mark a short while ago when I last measured!  Still coming down but lighter.  Incredible finish to this event, I got nearly 4" since about 3:30PM.  Outside the Jan. 2016 blizzard (which is in a totally different class), this is easily the largest snowfall since Feb. 2014 in terms of accumulation at least.  And this one, unlike Feb. 2014, didn't involve a period of slop for part of it.

Here's a recent photo from this evening (thank goodness for image stabilized lenses! :))...

Snow20190113.thumb.JPG.43e7a02040206025a9278ca1da0573e8.JPG

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Just now, Steve25 said:

Looks like I'm coming in a loser from this evening stuff. I'm in Baltimore but I've got nothing but the occasional flurries. My total has stood at 4.5 inches. It's looked like the heavy bands have been on my doorstep for hours but just aren't getting here. Does anyone know the last official measurements at BWI?

I’m at 3.7. The throne is mine, usurper.

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You might still get into this band as moves east. This afternoon has been something else. I was ready to call it at 5.3 inches. And be perfectly happy with that. And I am definitely over 8 now. Crazy.

Euro nailed the band out there. Underdid qpf but placement was perfect. 

Euro well with qpf leading in. Was showing .65 iad/.70 dca/.50 bwi (going off memory). Not bad at all.

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The intensity of this evening snow in DC clearly caught a lot of people off guard, rightly or wrongly. Just walked 20 blocks —- whereas city snow plows were lined up on every few blocks before the first flake fell yesterday, didn’t see one this evening. And major hotels and business that usually have an army of workers at the ready to clear each 1/2 inch off sidewalks, had completely snow-packed sidewalks.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro nailed the band out there. Underdid qpf but placement was perfect. 

Euro well with qpf leading in. Was showing .65 iad/.70 dca/.50 bwi (going off memory). Not bad at all.

Yup, I think that is what the Euro was showing for this event yesterday.  Wasn't it also calling for an additional 0.25-0.30 or there about from 1PM onward (in today's 12Z run...maybe that's what you mean about the band)?

(ETA:  So maybe...if the Euro kind of led the way on this one for QPF, it may well be correct with that crazy 1"+ of ice next weekend! :lol:)

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Man...I was feeling good about getting 4.5 inches out of this until I saw all of you up near 10. Are any of you near Baltimore? That would be the ultimate punch to the gut lol. 

4.3" just north of the beltway. But it's often the other way around too, especially when mixing is involved.

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4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup, I think that is what the Euro was showing for this event yesterday.  Wasn't it also calling for an additional 0.25-0.30 or there about from 1PM onward (in today's 12Z run...maybe that's what you mean about the band)?

The outer band moved around a lot but the 12z run today showed a bullseye out in winchester and wv panhandle. Was too low. 

Eta: euro missed the leesburg/upper moco/hoco jackpot between 18-0z. Upper level stuff is really hard to nail placement. That type of precip is almost always a nowcast deal

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