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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Finally getting the Loudon-Fairfax-DC-MoCo superband!  Big flakes and best rates of the storm.  Picked up around 520pm while I was shoveling/snowblowing.  Driveway covered again.

 

Measured 0.2" on the snowboard at 5pm for a storm total of 6.1".  I'm sure there's more than another 0.2" already in the last 20 minutes.  

That’s what dreams are made of —Van Halen

 

 

About time!

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Finally getting the Loudon-Fairfax-DC-MoCo superband!  Big flakes and best rates of the storm.  Picked up around 520pm while I was shoveling/snowblowing.  Driveway covered again.

 

Measured 0.2" on the snowboard at 5pm for a storm total of 6.1".  I'm sure there's more than another 0.2" already in the last 20 minutes.  

Thanks for getting schools closed. ;)

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This storm broke a lot of mid atlantic rules of thumb

  • Onset earlier than forecast
  • Virga was minimal
  • Models kept get better through and after onset
  • Snowfall was unusually evenly distributed
  • There was no parrs deathband (i feel bad for psu)
  • Nova and DCA are jackpotting 
  • Warm air advection overperformed
  • Upper level low qpf is higher than forecast
  • Shutoff is later than forecast
  • Start to finish will span 30 hours

Let all that sink in for a minute...

 

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This storm broke a lot of mid atlantic rules of thumb

  • Onset earlier than forecast
  • Virga was minimal
  • Models kept get better through and after onset
  • Snowfall was unusually evenly distributed
  • There was no parrs deathband (i feel bad for psu)
  • Nova and DCA are jackpotting 
  • Warm air advection overperformed
  • Upper level low qpf is higher than forecast
  • Shutoff is later than forecast
  • Start to finish will span 30 hours

Let all that sink in for a minute...

 

 

It took every weenie rulebook what if and said sure

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10 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

East of Daly Elementary.

 

I bet the roads are terrible right now. I have 6" on hard surfaces but there is a ton of compaction on them. 9" on anything that is insulated.

Oh they were bad!  I saw a few cars slip, especially when starting from a stop.  The unplowed neighborhood streets are easy; it was that half inch of new snow on Rt. 355 that was super slick.  My 19-year-old son drives home from work at Wegmans at 6:00. :o Glad he took the Outback!

I didn't do the proper measuring and I know was compacting earlier.  I have 7" on the ground now with moderate snow, 28 degrees.

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8 minutes ago, real said:

This post reminds me of 2010, when there was always debate on here about her forecasts.

In this day in age of access to actual real degreed Mets (unlike Palka) and real time model information, I have no idea why any weather enthusiast would give 2 sh*ts about what the local tv station says.  

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