Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Kuchera is incredible haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Waking up to the 12z NAM is quite the way to do it. I’m driving back to Arlington this afternoon...not chancing missing even half of what NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 DCA-BAL 20-22 inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I 1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said: HECS in the DMV and a sleet/cold rain in RVA. The atmosphere must have developed dementia. Where’s its memory? Not a cold rain in RVA. Maybe south. Freezing rain is a concern though. Need Kuchera NAM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 That vort passage is a thing of beauty. Just perfect to crush our area. I don't care if it's 8" or 20", this right here is an awesome look. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: HECS in the DMV and a sleet/cold rain in RVA. The atmosphere must have developed dementia. Where’s its memory? Ehh, just returning to normal, RVA getting more snow than the DMV just isn’t right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3k looked more reasonable. even the 3k has gone up alot since 00z and to me anyway...it runs really dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: I Not a cold rain in RVA. Maybe south. Freezing rain is a concern though. Need Kuchera NAM map. The Kuchera map is not good for RVA. It would be a complete ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just as I load the car up to head to Charlottesville the NAM gives everyone a 12-18” storm. Thank me later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 3k looked more reasonable. Certainly looks more plausible, but even that was a nice eye opener. H5 progression looks pretty solid on the run too. Could we be on to something? Have to watch the rest of the guidance suite to find out. Good start though if you want a bigger snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: HECS on the nam If this were to really play out as illustrated on the NAM, suggest it would be a hands down BECS. Can barely read the posts as fast as they are coming in. If the NAM nails this, it will have dethroned king EURO. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Certainly looks more plausible, but even that was a nice eye opener. H5 progression looks pretty solid on the run too. Could we be on to something? Have to watch the rest of the guidance suite to find out. Good start though if you want a bigger snowfall. Oh yeah the trend seems real. I just think the QPF may be a littlE gone wild on the 12k. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: The Kuchera map is not good for RVA. It would be a complete ice storm. That was my concern completely when I saw the NAM precip! Ugh. Anyone have a good ice acumulation map? Or can point me to a product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 [Old news, but from NCEP's 1/12/19 @ 3:30am heavy Snow Discussion] A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DEEPER COLD AIR IN PLACE, WARM ADVECTION SPREADING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE DEVELOPING LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD HIGHER SNOW ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTED BY LOW DAY 1 WPC PROBABILITIES FOR 8 INCHES THAT BLEED EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 You definitely cannot ignore the trend and Climo. All along Climo argued with what the models were showing. Good to see common sense is kicking in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3k looked more reasonable. 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Certainly looks more plausible, but even that was a nice eye opener. H5 progression looks pretty solid on the run too. Could we be on to something? Have to watch the rest of the guidance suite to find out. Good start though if you want a bigger snowfall. This. 3k doesn't go insane like the 12k, but is still a really nice storm. Easily warning criteria for the entire LWX area. Difference is what happens after 12z tomorrow on the 3k and 12k. 3k has a pretty modest moisture tap with some light snow while the 12k obliterates us. Easy decision to go with the 3k until the Euro agrees with the 12k. Please agree Euro. Eta...3k is still pushing a foot for areas around Wes and southern MD. Damn. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm always very skeptical of nam qpf output. Temps are usually pretty good but i've seen more than my share of qpf busts. That said, i'm hugging the 12k until it implodes LOL! Agreed, I wouldn't buy the extreme amounts the NAM is spitting out (unless every other model does same thing today). But I do like the overall increases in QPF and better looks that guidance is showing. I think LWX right now is OK with low end warning extending into immediate metro DC area and increased advisory amounts north of there...seems reasonably conservative and realistic for right now pending later guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 If the RGEM-GFS show anything remotely similar to the NAM as they should this place is gonna go crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I've upped my bar from 2" to 6. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh yeah the trend seems real. I just think the QPF may be a littlE gone wild on the 12k. Completely agree. I'm sitting on the sidelines out here in Texas, so I'll have my popcorn ready reading on here and watching web cams back home. I'll be back in less than a week for a vacation to see the family, so hopefully I get a nice storm in the future. Been boring as heck out here this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Completely agree. I'm sitting on the sidelines out here in Texas, so I'll have my popcorn ready reading on here and watching web cams back home. I'll be back in less than a week for a vacation to see the family, so hopefully I get a nice storm in the future. Been boring as heck out here this winter. Your last sentence rings extremely loud up here. that looks to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Saw the 6z NAM in the middle of the night and laughed. Fell asleep. Woke up, "yeah, 12z will backed down" Well... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Saw the 6z NAM in the middle of the night and laughed. Fell asleep. Woke up, "yeah, 12z will backed down" Well... Shirtless selfies after seeing 12z nam? 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Radar starting to blow up in extreme SW va, moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3K matches pretty well with the euro. Argues for upping DC to 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus that’s 12-18. Holy cow. The north trend is real just not sure if 18”. Lol. Seriously, did you reprogram the NAM? You can be honest with us man, we'd still love you as one of our favorite foreign mets 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Anyone have those CIPS analogs from a couple of days ago? Guessing they match the 12k pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Will use the 3km as the low end bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3K NAM is actually in line with recent Euro runs. 4-6" for most, with 8-10" in VA south of DC, southern MD, over to S DE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, terpsnation said: Will use the 3km as the low end bar And this is woth 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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