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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now...I often hear the more experienced folks on here say the srefs are useless. So...what are they actually good for, then? Lol

SREFs have burned us many times. They can appear to be very stubborn which makes it seem that they have caught on to some trend ahead of the other models, but then it turns out they are just crap and were way off the whole time.

People also forget to take out the outliers (high and low) to produce the mean. There are some real garbage members in there (various ARW - Always Really Wet and NMM - Never Much Moisture runs) that always mess up the mean.

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