Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, jayyy said: PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive. That gulf tap does so much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios. dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios. dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either. You aren't wrong... I mean by the looks of current radar OBS, the precip shield is almost to northern Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios. dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either. Haha.. yeah! I love it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Balmy 45 here... in Vegas. Wishing everyone the best for what is looking to be a modest snow storm region wide 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive. Its going to be a nice event here, but remember the vort is going to become increasingly stretched and gradually weaken is it moves east and encounters confluence. The local forecast offices seem to have a good handle on the high end potential with this. The coastal low is a bit of a wildcard but at this point it seems most of the area wont see much impact from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 19/13 in Parkton. Enjoy your inch! It’s gonna be a good one. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Moisture transport from Gulf and Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8:15 am 27/22 Baro 30.51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its going to be a nice event here, but remember the vort is going to become increasingly stretched and gradually weaken is it moves east and encounters confluence. The local forecast offices seem to have a good handle on the high end potential with this. The coastal low is a bit of a wildcard but at this point it seems most of the area wont see much impact from that. Not really going to need the coastal low to rack up good totals you can see the moisture transport pretty clear on radar and where the fetch runs into cold air its dumping snow. The vort has been continually looking better and better since 24 hours ago. I see a over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Enjoy your inch! It’s gonna be a good one. .Happy New Year to you too! . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Present from [mention=821]mitchnick[/mention]. 6z Euro is a shellacking. Anyone have the snow map for this 6z euro? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 This is for Aberdeen Harford county. Look at the mean jump!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Huge jump on the SREF for northern MD no doubt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Anything over 4" is a good storm in my book. Always been my benchmark. And anything over 6" is a big storm. Don't know about the latter, but the former appears within reach. Add in the cold temps and this could be a great event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Next week looks interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 For you DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1.21 mean qpf at dca on the sref. LOL edit-the outliers are the few members that are low. Huge cluster around and inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Anyone feel this is a storm where NWS may be playing catch up the entire time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Beachin said: This is for Aberdeen Harford county. Look at the mean jump!!!!! Forgive me if I'm reading that wrong, but is this calling for 8.5" in Aberdeen? That sounds crazier than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 One aspect of this storm that is still evolving is the Sunday eve/night timeframe. Most models have a norlun type trough that develops as the coastal is moving ots....I'm not sure if it's actually a "norlun" that develops but it's def an extension of the trough. Some develop this over the area...some models like it to the west of the area extending down into CVA...and some are weak or nothing. The ICON shows how we can pad some numbers if this feature works out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: Forgive me if I'm reading that wrong, but is this calling for 8.5" in Aberdeen? That sounds crazier than the NAM. You are reading it right and its very possible with what the trends have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Balmy 45 here... in Vegas. Wishing everyone the best for what is looking to be a modest snow storm region wide I feel so bad that you are missing this! But I guess much of it is the chase. Your analysis leading up to this storm have been incredible! Hope you are enjoying yourself and make it back before we get a big one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Anyone feel this is a storm where NWS may be playing catch up the entire time? Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why. Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Anyone feel this is a storm where NWS may be playing catch up the entire time? I am hoping that is the case. The past few years they have actually been too aggressive, but I hope we are now in a pattern that keeps them upping the ante! Those are my favorite storms! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12z nam incoming in the next half hour.... I expect a doozy. If Trends continue, they need to extend warnings up to the Baltimore parallel at least, if not further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why. Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models I know the NWS uses the SREF'S for trends very close to a event so this has to have them thinking for sure. IF 12z models nail WSW will fly for everyone im sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The extended 12z HRRR is good, with around 0.5” qpf near DC, but Fredericksburg and south really get shellacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeddins42 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 26/13 29.98 cold and dry in Mt Airy. Smells like snow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 57 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Lived in Montclair for 17 years. Nothing prettier than a drive down Waterway during heavy snow. Unfortunately through the 90s and early 2000s all of the bradford pears they had in the median broke due to heavy snow or strong winds. They have been replaced with other more hearty trees but for time it was really unique. I have lived in Montclair for 14 years. It is an awesome neighborhood. Hoping that the overnight Namming is accurate for MBY. Currently 29/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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