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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing that could argue for an improvement with qpf late is the guidance continues to juice up to our west and bring that further east each run before just killing it. Perhaps that trend continues and it doesn't shear out as much as predicted. Grasping at straws here. 

lol- just made a comparison post showing that shift. We're grasping but it's not like qpf went up like .05. It increased .1 - .2 in a pretty decent sized area to our due west. Whatever it takes to get 2" man... Maybe one of our WV panhandle folks can fire off the silver iodide guns into the atmosphere

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another tidbit on the euro to note is the increase in WAA precip to our due west. It was a noticeable increase and indicates the waa leaf is stronger on this run. Of course the apps will do their damage etc but look at the differences between 0z and 12z in Garrett CO/NE WV. 

Yet2qWp.jpg

WrWeXNH.jpg

If we aren't going to get any help from the coastal we need to root for the best case scenario with the front running waa leaf. 

Yea, the higher totals in Canaan valley are a good sign that some of that more robust WAA makes its way to us. 

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing that could argue for an improvement with qpf late is the guidance continues to juice up to our west and bring that further east each run before just killing it. Perhaps that trend continues and it doesn't shear out as much as predicted. Grasping at straws here. 

 

35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're not totally out of it with coastal enhancement. South and east obviously in the better spot but the euro slowed things down 6 hours during the handoff so the weak CCB improved and moved closer because the buzzsaw was slightly better. For most of the area, all guidance remains locked in .1 - .4 for the immediate DC area and north. No signs of a whiff yet. 

Yeah, I was thinking about this over the last hour.  Euro has been consistent with the WAA piece and as you say, maybe improved it a touch this run.  And it leaves the door open to the coastal throwing precipitation back to us.  Wonder if some EPS members do just that.  

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I’m reposting my first call analysis from earlier. I think what I have is still okay. I might make some adjustments to max potentials and what not, but a wide spread 1-3/2-4 is still a solid call. I’ll have a more final call tomorrow and continue to analyze guidance. Also, models like the Nam Nest will need to start getting some credence by tonight’s 0z runs for short term trend purposes. Obviously, it’s not gospel, but it could outline potential mesoscale features and banding structures within the initial WAA.

 

If you were expecting anything more than 6” across Central MD or NoVa, then you are looking at the wrong storm. If you’re along the Blue Ridge or Allegheny Front in VA or WV, you are still in game. I expect a WWA for a vast majority of the forum with maybe a WSW out near Tucker and Pocahontas Counties in WV due to elevation and maxing on orographic enhancement and mid level convergence with the southern jet streak.

 

Edit: Sigh. I can’t repost my write up on Tapatalk.

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The Euro looks good for many of us South of DC. Significantly better than any model looked for my area on 12-9.  And i scored an inch and people just 25 miles to my South had 4-6 inches.  This is still being worked out by the models and even the Northern crew could get in on the good stuff this time.

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4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The Euro looks good for many of us South of DC. Significantly better than any model looked for my area on 12-9.  And i scored an inch and people just 25 miles to my South had 4-6 inches.  This is still being worked out by the models and even the Northern crew could get in on the good stuff this time.

and people 25 miles to your north got nothing like me.  EPS looks solid for a 4 inch event.  maybe 5 for you.  good enough.  This was rain early in the process.  hopefully it holds as really everyone in the forum gets something. 

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Probably doesn't mean much but there are quite a few more solutions that turn up the coast compared to 0z. If I lived in SNE I wouldn't totally give up after looking at the 12z eps. Most that make the turn are slower and lag trailing energy that is able to avoid the departing hammer and make a run towards the cape. Seems very unlikely to happen based on all op guidance. You never know though. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Probably doesn't mean much but there are quite a few more solutions that turn up the coast compared to 0z. If I lived in SNE I wouldn't totally give up after looking at the 12z eps. Most that make the turn are slower and lag trailing energy that is able to avoid the departing hammer and make a run towards the cape. Seems very unlikely to happen based on all op guidance. You never know though. 

Do they hit us or do they develop too far OTS before making the turn?

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is step forward. Very few give dca less than .2 qpf and majority are juicier than the op. Overall it's a good run but it's best to favor the op at this point. The biggest takeaway is there is more boom potential than bust among the solutions. 

That is really good news

 

Eta: do you have the control run QPF?

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, but is that going to happen? If it doesn't, the bump up in the EPS mean qpf is meaningless because that's the only reason it looks better than last night. Take out the coastal runners and the ens 100% support the op. 

I don't "think" so. Haha.  I'm on the "lets get the WAA" as wet as possible as the coastal idea has faded on OPs.  Just was letting them know that ones that do make it to SNE, hit us first.

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Canadian ensemble got better again, now up to 5.6" for the mean imby.  Only one member gets me less than 1".  But at this point the GEPS is probably mostly following the op. 

The RGEM ensemble is beginning to come into range.  This only goes out to 72 hours, but if the GFS is right it may be all over by then.  It's consistent with most other guidance.

8cRfvGP.png

There is broad consensus among the members for at least 1" for northern VA and northern and central MD. 

The GEPS mean also has about 2" falling by 72 hours for me.  The rest comes after that, but that is almost certainly depdendent on the members that give me heavy snow from the coastal.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

May as well post it all... lol. Control is juicy. Wish it was the op solution

RKRwvMa.jpg

Bob,

I know this questions gets kicked around a lot at leads like these but whats your opinion on the ensembles 60hrs out with this event and their usefulness. They seem jumpy with this event especially and one model seems to pick up on an idea then lose it, then another one picks up on the opposite idea. Do we just have to start choosing sides with one of the ops and make a reasonable assumption that it is the one handling the evolution the best? 

 

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From LWX: Forecast Discussion

An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest overnight
Friday night into Saturday. An area of surface low pressure will
form over Texas in response to this upper-level feature, and
move into the southeastern U.S by Saturday night. Ahead of the
main surface low pressure system moving across the southeast,
another weak area of upper-level energy will be moving across
our area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, which will
provide some extra lift ahead of the main system. At the same 
time, a strong surface high will funnel cold air in from the 
north, while southwesterly flow above the surface overruns the 
wedge of cold air. This combination of moisture and enhanced
lift will result in a period of snow starting late Saturday 
morning, continuing into Saturday night. Snow associated with
the main surface low looks to move in early Sunday morning and
continue throughout the day on Sunday. 

On Sunday, the primary surface low pressure system will slide 
by to our south through the Carolinas. The precipitation from 
this system will stretch northward and affect areas as far north
Pennsylvania. Temperatures will be plenty cold enough for snow
for the entire duration of this system, so precipitation types
will not be an issue. Latest runs of the operational Euro and NAM
are in fairly good agreement that the low will move off the 
coast around Cape Hatteras, while the operational GFS took a
slightly more southern track. However, GEFS and EPS ensembles
seem to be in fairly good agreement that more closely resembles
that of the operational Euro and NAM. While some uncertainty
remains in terms of the exact track, it seems as though most
guidance is in decent agreement. 

All of this being said, snow is likely across the entire area
Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Initial thinking is
for 3-6 inches of snow across eastern West Virginia, central 
and northern Virginia, and into southern Maryland. Amounts 
farther north are still a little more uncertain, and depend on 
how far north the system tracks, but looking at 1-4 inches 
across northern and Central Maryland. 
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1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said:

From LWX: Forecast Discussion

An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest overnight
Friday night into Saturday. An area of surface low pressure will
form over Texas in response to this upper-level feature, and
move into the southeastern U.S by Saturday night. Ahead of the
main surface low pressure system moving across the southeast,
another weak area of upper-level energy will be moving across
our area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, which will
provide some extra lift ahead of the main system. At the same 
time, a strong surface high will funnel cold air in from the 
north, while southwesterly flow above the surface overruns the 
wedge of cold air. This combination of moisture and enhanced
lift will result in a period of snow starting late Saturday 
morning, continuing into Saturday night. Snow associated with
the main surface low looks to move in early Sunday morning and
continue throughout the day on Sunday. 

On Sunday, the primary surface low pressure system will slide 
by to our south through the Carolinas. The precipitation from 
this system will stretch northward and affect areas as far north
Pennsylvania. Temperatures will be plenty cold enough for snow
for the entire duration of this system, so precipitation types
will not be an issue. Latest runs of the operational Euro and NAM
are in fairly good agreement that the low will move off the 
coast around Cape Hatteras, while the operational GFS took a
slightly more southern track. However, GEFS and EPS ensembles
seem to be in fairly good agreement that more closely resembles
that of the operational Euro and NAM. While some uncertainty
remains in terms of the exact track, it seems as though most
guidance is in decent agreement. 

All of this being said, snow is likely across the entire area
Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Initial thinking is
for 3-6 inches of snow across eastern West Virginia, central 
and northern Virginia, and into southern Maryland. Amounts 
farther north are still a little more uncertain, and depend on 
how far north the system tracks, but looking at 1-4 inches 
across northern and Central Maryland. 

Pretty bullish.  3-6”?

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