Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: If it plays out this way this is a pretty big bust for the GFS/GEFS. They were spitting out weenie runs until 6z today. I guess maybe the fact that no one is calibrating/checking data had an impact. The gefs was spitting out big solutions in the mix but the op didn't agree with that at all. When that happens at these shorter leads it's best to side with the op (if it's being consistent). ETA: 6z op was impressive but the more consistent solution was a weaker/less qpf event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro is a little better/faster with the waa piece. Prob noise. Very similar run so far to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 My point earlier (which I thought was a clever one but got deleted, god forbid one makes analogy during storm mode) was that model inconsistency aside it is best to use our climo analogs to determine events like this. Not just discrete analogs. So, its a little dissapeointng to see such a removal of the coastal aspect from the gefs and the op. The cmc seems out to lunch but euro weighs in momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 To my untrained eyes, the 500 heights on the 72 hour Euro appear better, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Sounds like wishful thinking to me If that were true then I don't think you would of seen a step back in the GEFS. You'd still see at least a couple well timed-up solutions which were all absent from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro largely unchanged. Best stuff for DC is 6z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Through 96, the 0.5" has come north to the very S tip of PWC along I95. 0.25" is just north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Slight differences in timing and evolution but I'm not sure you can say anything meaningful changed on the run. I guess you could say the CCB (light) is closer as the low exits but overall it's a 1-4" event through most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Posted on Tuesday that the H5 pattern in no way supports such an event. Ridge out west weakens and the trough shears and stretches. Not favorable to transfer to a coastal, plus strong Canadian high to our north will wedge plenty of subsidence and dry air to where even what the model is sampling may only be virga. I’m sticking to my guns and not moving from a slider south of us as any low near the coast is starved of energy and does not come north or west enough to mean much for the I-95 and suburbs. Some WAA out ahead may generate a dusting to 1”, 2 at best but that’s all on this one. Personally, I’m heading to Snowshoe to ski and catch the upslope WAA to get the high end advisory snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: If it plays out this way this is a pretty big bust for the GFS/GEFS. They were spitting out weenie runs until 6z today. I guess maybe the fact that no one is calibrating/checking data had an impact. It is a bummer for the GEFS, the clusters near the coast it had are now displaced far to the ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Posted on Tuesday that the H5 pattern in no way supports such an event. Ridge out west weakens and the trough shears and stretches. Not favorable to transfer to a coastal, plus strong Canadian high to our north will wedge plenty of subsidence and dry air to where even what the model is sampling may only be virga. I’m sticking to my guns and not moving from a slider south of us as any low near the coast is starved of energy and does not come north or west enough to mean much for the I-95 and suburbs. Some WAA out ahead may generate a dusting to 1”, 2 at best but that’s all on this one. Personally, I’m heading to Snowshoe to ski and catch the upslope WAA to get the high end advisory snow. That's well played Southern slider was always most likely outcome if you followed the H5 progression. Never quite got to where we needed it now models are coming around Mappy owes you an apology. She used one model run 2 days ago to troll you when you said your opinion was unchanged just because one run of the GFS showed an amped scenario. Good job sticking to your original analysis. Probably will turn out right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Make up your own ratios. Trimmed the northern edge but bumped the southern totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Sweet model. We make fun of the NAM but the GEFS is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Make up your own ratios. Trimmed the northern edge but bumped the southern totals. Looks similar to the December storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Make up your own ratios. Trimmed the northern edge but bumped the southern totals. Bob how do thermals look down this way? Will there be a sneaky warm layer or do you think we remain snow through this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Kuchera fwiw. I guess you can say the increase to the south is a good thing but I see the run as just noise and mostly the same as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Slight differences in timing and evolution but I'm not sure you can say anything meaningful changed on the run. I guess you could say the CCB (light) is closer as the low exits but overall it's a 1-4" event through most of the region. Does it brush the southern part of our area? Can't see maps at work, EURO last night spit out about 4-5" around EZF, seems high given other model data. Edit: Posted this before I saw your Total QPF response, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Make up your own ratios. Trimmed the northern edge but bumped the southern totals. Really tightened the gradient here with the buzz saw influence just NE and the CCB just south. Looks like 5-6" around Easton and Cambridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Bob how do thermals look down this way? Will there be a sneaky warm layer or do you think we remain snow through this thing? Looks pretty good. Walking the line but also in better precip. I'd be happy if I lived at your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, wawarriors4 said: Does it brush the southern part of our area? Can't see maps at work, EURO last night spit out about 4-5" around EZF, seems high given other model data. EZF jackpots on this run. Kuchera around 8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I left my translator at home but I think he was kinda saying what I was discussing with showme and bob earlier about our bigger problem here being the upstream issues out west regarding the low crashing into CA undercutting and the compression of the trough and not the suppression to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Looks like a good event may set up for @usedtobe and @PrinceFrederickWx. Hope they enjoy this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: My point earlier (which I thought was a clever one but got deleted, god forbid one makes analogy during storm mode) was that model inconsistency aside it is best to use our climo analogs to determine events like this. Not just discrete analogs. So, its a little dissapeointng to see such a removal of the coastal aspect from the gefs and the op. The cmc seems out to lunch but euro weighs in momentarily. your post was deleted because it could have easily been off topic and banter. no one cares about you dating a girl you think is a 6, to a 9, then being dumped and wanting a 9 -- stick to weather 6 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: That's well played Southern slider was always most likely outcome if you followed the H5 progression. Never quite got to where we needed it now models are coming around Mappy owes you an apology. She used one model run 2 days ago to troll you when you said your opinion was unchanged just because one run of the GFS showed an amped scenario. Good job sticking to your original analysis. Probably will turn out right i owe no one an apology. last i checked the storm hasnt happened yet. but continue to stir the pot and see where it gets you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 EURO snow map looks good around EZF. 7" at 10/1 and 9" on Kuchera......my over under is 3" feel decent about that seeing the EURO. It doesn't seem this will be quite as a razor sharp edge as 12/9 so 2-4" up toward DCA and Southern close in burbs seems pretty good. Gonna feel wintry which is great after the last 5 weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 We're not totally out of it with coastal enhancement. South and east obviously in the better spot but the euro slowed things down 6 hours during the handoff so the weak CCB improved and moved closer because the buzzsaw was slightly better. For most of the area, all guidance remains locked in .1 - .4 for the immediate DC area and north. No signs of a whiff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're not totally out of it with coastal enhancement. South and east obviously in the better spot but the euro slowed things down 6 hours during the handoff so the weak CCB improved and moved closer because the buzzsaw was slightly better. For most of the area, all guidance remains locked in .1 - .4 for the immediate DC area and north. No signs of a whiff yet. One thing that could argue for an improvement with qpf late is the guidance continues to juice up to our west and bring that further east each run before just killing it. Perhaps that trend continues and it doesn't shear out as much as predicted. Grasping at straws here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Another tidbit on the euro to note is the increase in WAA precip to our due west. It was a noticeable increase and indicates the waa leaf is stronger on this run. Of course the apps will do their damage etc but look at the differences between 0z and 12z in Garrett CO/NE WV. If we aren't going to get any help from the coastal we need to root for the best case scenario with the front running waa leaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The Euro qpf and snow map looks in line with what my expectations have been with this storm. It always had the feel of a 2-4" storm for most of us. If we wanted to use a CWG range 1-6" seems reasonable more south obviously. No signs of a blah blah blah blah whiff yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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