TJW014 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very quick rundown of the common acronyms we use all the time. This should help anyone who is afraid to ask but wants to know. WAA: warm air advection precip happens on front side of approaching low pressure. Look at mid level 850 wind panels and it makes sense. Winds are always southerly but most commonly southwesterly. Hence the name "warm air" because it's coming from the south. CCB: cold conveyor belt. This is on the backside of low pressure. Usually cold/dry/fluffy snow. Again, look at the the mid level 850 wind panels. During CCB mid level winds will be out of the north/northeast/northwest. This draws down colder air and is also where our highest ration snow comes from. DGZ: is the level of the atmosphere where snowflakes are produced. Sometimes this can suck and we get sand/needles/dust and other times it can be beautiful big fluffy dendrites. This is also a complicated topic so I'm not going to even remotely explain why some storms are good and others bad. Thank you. Was going to ask at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I think the worry is that we are moving away from a light event and towards a whiff. That’s not the model consensus but after the last few winters peioke are scared! I think we are lasering in on a 1-3/2-4 more than moving towards a whiff. We can whiff anytime but every good model has our area in the .1 - .4 qpf range with consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS strongly supports an event similar to the op in general. Universal support for the most part. That's not untrue but on the other hand it took 4" of the snow mean at DCA. Going to upset people whose expectations were unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think we are lasering in on a 1-3/2-4 more than moving towards a whiff. We can whiff anytime but every good model has our area in the .1 - .4 qpf range with consistency. THIS If you are upset over this... I don't know what to tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: THIS If you are upset over this... I don't know what to tell you I was tempted to lean 3-6 before 0z last night but the runs capped the upside decisively. My yard bar is 2". Less than that would be a disappointment but even 1" would destroy all other events so far in met winter. Plus this event is the only action in the east to I guess I should feel lucky my yard is even part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That's not untrue but on the other hand it took 4" of the snow mean at DCA. Going to upset people whose expectations were unreasonable. It got rid of all of the big QPF makers. That solution never had any op support at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I was tempted to lean 3-6 before 0z last night but the runs capped the upside decisively. My yard bar is 2". Less than that would be a disappointment but even 1" would destroy all other events so far in met winter. Plus this event is the only action in the east to I guess I should feel lucky my yard is even part of it. 1-2 has been my bar. Was nice to see a couple GFS runs with 6-8 in my yard, and the crappy CMC still looks good but it will correct late as always. This is just a tough pattern for a coastal to get going and gain enough latitude in time to get most of us into the CCB. Still could happen, but looking less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 1-2 has been my bar. Was nice to see a couple GFS runs with 6-8 in my yard, and the crappy CMC still looks good but it will correct late as always. This is just a tough pattern for a coastal to get going and gain enough latitude in time to get most of us into the CCB. Still could happen, but looking less likely. I feel like mowing my lawn on the shortest setting today so 1" completely covers the grass. I'll still shovel all the snow out of my neighbors yards in the middle of the night to make up any shortfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Can we agree that posting the NAM at 84 hours counts as banter and therefor should be deleted? Come on guys.... LOL median snowfall looks solid for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, yoda said: THIS If you are upset over this... I don't know what to tell you You’re 100% right that in a bad winter and after the pac puke pattern that a 1-3 or 2-4 deal will be refreshing given we also have better prospects going forward. That said, I think it’s reasonable to have some level of disappointment with the runs today. The gefs was great for the December storm and some of us in here were hopeful it could be as reliable for this storm. Moreover, the 6z was really bullish. That kind of change in 6 hours is not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I feel like mowing my lawn on the shortest setting today so 1" completely covers the grass. I'll still shovel all the snow out of my neighbors yards in the middle of the night to make up any shortfall. I might lower my bar to an inch. I can totally see my yard being a bit too far SE for the good WAA stuff, and then get fringed by the coastal. I am sure lower DE will get in on some 1-2" per hr bands though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I know some need a huge storm every time, but I am perfectly okay with a 2-4” lollipop 5-6” type of storm to whiten the ground for the main event around 1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 #consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I know some need a huge storm every time, but I am perfectly okay with a 2-4” lollipop 5-6” type of storm to whiten the ground for the main event around 1/21 You should be perfectly okay with an inch or 2 with maybe a lolli of 3. If you were being realistic, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE is 2-4 for most must have fallen apart after 72 hours then because there was almost that much already by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: must have fallen apart after 72 hours then because there was almost that much already by then. Yeah, I kind of had that thought as well. Nothing after 12z Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Yoda (or anyone with wxmodels ukie qpf panels, what is the qpf range? So far we have this: GFS: .1-.4 CMC: .3 - .75 ICON: .2 - .5 UKIE: .2 - .4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, yoda said: THIS If you are upset over this... I don't know what to tell you I don't think there's anything wrong in feeling a bit disappointed, especially for those of us getting under 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 This will be a fascinating end result....the evolution of this thing seems so familiar. Models sniff out a potential...a little bit of early on waffling then some nice solutions but not a general consensus as a model or two remains stubborn. Models flip as in good ones go bad and bad ones go good...then a couple of boom runs and we get excited...then the slow shift away to a less than happy solution but in reality was a solution that was shown at some point earlier...seems to be a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yoda (or anyone with wxmodels ukie qpf panels, what is the qpf range? So far we have this: GFS: .1-.4 CMC: .3 - .75 ICON: .2 - .5 UKIE: .2 - .4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: This will be a fascinating end result....the evolution of this thing seems so familiar. Models sniff out a potential...a little bit of early on waffling then some nice solutions but not a general consensus as a model or two remains stubborn. Models flip as in good ones go bad and bad ones go good...then a couple of boom runs and we get excited...then the slow shift away to a less than happy solution but in reality was a solution that was shown at some point earlier...seems to be a pattern Sums up like 80% of our events. lol. Going with the lower end of guidance has a very good win rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: This will be a fascinating end result....the evolution of this thing seems so familiar. Models sniff out a potential...a little bit of early on waffling then some nice solutions but not a general consensus as a model or two remains stubborn. Models flip as in good ones go bad and bad ones go good...then a couple of boom runs and we get excited...then the slow shift away to a less than happy solution but in reality was a solution that was shown at some point earlier...seems to be a pattern maybe you missed the part where on the day of, there are some surprises. Happens nearly every event and we saw it with that earlier event where VA jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Thanks! So the ukie is .15 - .40. Not the worst run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Thanks! So the ukie is .15 - .40. Not the worst run. It certainly has the most WAA snow. Not any coastal effects really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: It certainly has the most WAA snow. Not any coastal effects really. UKIE has been the most consistent with a light event and it's the second highest verification scoring model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Can anyone post the individual members of the GEFS? Just curious to see them and spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This will be a fascinating end result....the evolution of this thing seems so familiar. Models sniff out a potential...a little bit of early on waffling then some nice solutions but not a general consensus as a model or two remains stubborn. Models flip as in good ones go bad and bad ones go good...then a couple of boom runs and we get excited...then the slow shift away to a less than happy solution but in reality was a solution that was shown at some point earlier...seems to be a pattern Something tells me that pattern might be breaking after this threat...gotta keep in mind that at the moment, the overall pattern is still kinda progressive! (But again, sounds like that could be in the midst of changing!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just saw the 6 hour UK panels and yea it pretty much totally skunks us from 72 on, all the precip DC area north is from the WAA wave in front...all the precip after that is well south and east of DC. But it did have a better initial wave. That is probably all we have left now to root for, the idea of a re-amplifying coastal is pretty dead ATT. We need that initial WAA wave to be as healthy as possible because that is probably all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Can anyone post the individual members of the GEFS? Just curious to see them and spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If it plays out this way this is a pretty big bust for the GFS/GEFS. They were spitting out weenie runs until 6z today. I guess maybe the fact that no one is calibrating/checking data had an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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