nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Mount Holly keeping a WWA for now, but mentioned a possible upgrade in the AFD for tonight. Also noticed they have a bit more of a 'wide range' than usual for accumulations in the text forecast, owing to the possible tight gradient and uncertainty with the coastal enhancement across this area. Calling for 2-6" here and 3-7" around Easton. Less NE. Seems reasonable. We're still pretty far out in time from any coastal development, and that placement is always difficult, so I expect some surprises later tomorrow. Good for some, and not so good for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 NAMed! Lmao. Wow. Overdone no doubt unless the coastal gets going over us. 6z is always too amped... and we shouldn’t be model hugging at this point. Particularly not the euro, gfs. NAM is almost out of range too. RAPP is always a good call as we get close to kickoff. But hey... now all we need is that game time 25 mile shift north and we’re golden here in central md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: We're still pretty far out in time from any coastal development, and that placement is always difficult, so I expect some surprises later tomorrow. Good for some, and not so good for others. If anything, it’ll hurt those in the SSW quadrant of the storm, and help those on the NE flank if a coastal gets going earlier and is more amped than progged. Earlier development = quicker the energy transfers and pivots everything.. something to be watched, but doesn’t have a ton of model support. A few ensemble runs here and there. Can’t rule it out though. We are SO close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 And of course...especially for the northern half of the CWA... ratios will likely be better than progged. PSUhoffman and company will be posting the old “it snowed only 0.3” QPF liquid equivalent and we have 5” posts. Because of this I think DC and Baltimore proper see very similar totals, despite BAL seeing slightly less QPF. 10:1 ratios vs 12:1 or so. Again... the things to watch for... game day bump north with the storm (25 mile shift north can’t be ruled out), a juicier than progged radar (which looks very robust around Missouri, Indiana, etc 8 inches of snow and counting in St. Louis so far) and last but not least, MAYBE the coastal getting going earlier. A lot to iron out while we are in game time. Here’s to hoping something finally goes our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 06z FV3 GFS looks great. Looks like NWS made a good call extending the WSW north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 06z GFS (old version) finally gets a clue and ups totals as well for the DC area... everything looks like 3-6 inches or more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ICON/NAM/GFS/FV3/Rgem all show Baltimore to DC 3-6+” its time to nowcast ladies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I have made peace it. I am only getting 1-3, when 50 miles south of me get 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: I have made peace it. I am only getting 1-3, when 50 miles south of me get 6+ 2-4 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I have made peace it. I am only getting 1-3, when 50 miles south of me get 6+I think 2-4” is probably a good call for your area. I know that area well since I lived there for 19 years. It’s a sneaky good spot for storms and banding in Eastern Baltimore Co . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 These last minute trends are so predictable. Finally something more related to climo. I don't think the shifting is done either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Any word on 6z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Am hearing the 6z euro improved over 0z especially for northern MD and DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The NY NWS seems to think the euro and sref is too far north based on radar: So far observations and radar data show that the ECMWF and SREF mean are to far N with their measurable precipitation over Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. As a result, have lowered pops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 HRRR looks dang sweet too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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