Scraff Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's always possible the transfer can throw a wrench but by the time the shortwave passes through it's pretty squashed. Much of the snow for many happens before the transfer. We probably won't clearly know how its going to work until this time tomorrow We probably won’t clearly know how it’s going to work until...two weeks from tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is the last model I'd use 12 hours out This. The GFS is irrelevant. There will be death banding in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: All models have waffled back and forth but the consensus has pretty much been some where between 2 and 6 inches for last 4 or 5 days. If we end up in that range that's impressive in imho. Exactly. I liked seeing 18z bump things up because it gives more cushion to avoid a fail. I said 2 days ago that far NE zones look good for 1-3", all of central md 2-4", and south of the potomac 3-6". The progression has changed but the end result hasn't. We'll seen what the ukie and euro say later. Euro will prob trim a little imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We do unless it shows something we don’t like. We tend to endorse the best model output but know the worst output will likely verify. Can’t remember the last time the snowiest model was the one that won Enjoy your 3-5”. If some models were showing a shutout then I’d be concerned of a fail. It seems 2” would be our low bar which considering where we were a week ago, I’ll happily take even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Enjoy your 3-5”. If the some models were showing a shutdown then I’d be concerned of a fail. It seems 2” would be our low bar which considering where we were a week ago, I’ll happily take even that. I will. Snow falling is better than snow accumulated. To me anyway. Would take 3 inches over 6 hours vice 6 inches over 3 hours. Sounds insane I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 JMA basically the same as previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: I will. Snow falling is better than snow accumulated. To me anyway. Would take 3 inches over 6 hours vice 6 inches over 3 hours. Sounds insane I know. I'm with you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I will. Snow falling is better than snow accumulated. To me anyway. Would take 3 inches over 6 hours vice 6 inches over 3 hours. Sounds insane I know. If you really like snow falling than 2 inch per hour rates is as good as it gets....Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Enjoy your 3-5”. If some models were showing a shutout then I’d be concerned of a fail. It seems 2” would be our low bar which considering where we were a week ago, I’ll happily take even that. I will happily take an inch. Or a half inch. Weather is gonna do what its gonna do regardless of what any particular model says, or what I would like to see. The hammer gets worse the further east you go in this set up. My expectations have remained on the modest side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: Latest WPC forecast. Very reasonable and a good kick off to the pattern change. There are some monster storms waiting down the pike... Let's hope they pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I will happily take an inch. Or a half inch. Weather is gonna do what its gonna do regardless of what any particular model says, or what I would like to see. The hammer gets worse the further east you go in this set up. My expectations have remained on the modest side. I’m with you. Hopefully everyone can cash in on something as we look ahead to the (likely) busy period ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Totals are overrated, but if I get less than 3” I’ll be despondent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The 0z FV3 QPF distribution looks quite similar to the 18z Euro/EPS. Noticed that just now for some reason(probably because TT is so effing slow). The 0z Euro run shall be "telling". lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: The 0z FV3 QPF distribution looks quite similar to the 18z Euro/EPS. Noticed that just now for some reason(probably because TT is so effing slow). The 0z Euro shall be "telling". lol. Ha, I thought the same thing earlier when it first came out on NCEP. Didn’t bother posting since I didn’t want to interrupt the panic. Adding up the panels on the UKMET looks like about 0.4 or so for DC but I’ll wait for the ‘prettier’ maps for final confirmation. I fully expect the Euro to hold steady honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Ha, I thought the same thing earlier when it first came out on NCEP. Didn’t bother posting since I didn’t want to interrupt the panic. Adding up the panels on the UKMET looks like about 0.4 or so for DC but I’ll wait for the ‘prettier’ maps for final confirmation. I fully expect the Euro to hold steady honestly. I expect it will probably cut back some, but not appreciably. At least that's my hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 DCA 0.5" QPF on 00z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, yoda said: DCA 0.5" QPF on 00z UKIE Is that the best it has been? Seems like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: DCA 0.5" QPF on 00z UKIE That's good to hear. 2nd best model holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: DCA 0.5" QPF on 00z UKIE 00z run 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's good to hear. 2nd best model holds I know the uk verification scores are good, but it seems the QPF bounces around like a fish out of water without any consistency. Maybe its highlighted more since it doens’t have ensembles that we analyze too but it seems that each run is up/down with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I’m still hoping for a real time 25-50 mile North shift. Partly because it would get me close double digits and partly because it puts the northern tier folks into Warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I know the uk verification scores are good, but it seems the QPF bounces around like a fish out of water without any consistency. Maybe its highlighted more since it doens’t have ensembles that we analyze too but it seems that each run is up/down with QPF. Agree in the mid range. It does well short range. Especially with midlevel temps. I've seen it throw a reg flag in the mids in the short range and we ignored it but it was right. Seeing back to back qpf panels look similar (and good) is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Heavy frost on car, This event is not overcoming humidities of 30% but rather almost 70 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 RGEM ensemble continues the trend from 12z. Slightly drier and more south, but overall still good. There's still a good amount of spread among the members. The below maps are only for 24 hours, so they don't cover the whole storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Think someone near the city will get to 6" with ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GEFS mean qpf is a nice tick north fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 STL reports 8" snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: GEFS mean qpf is a nice tick north fwiw. Ops are probably better to look at at this point, accord to Bob...Seriously, it amazes me how obsessive we can get with this stuff! Down to the smallest tick?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Ops are probably better to look at at this point, accord to Bob...Seriously, it amazes me how obsessive we can get with this stuff! Down to the smallest tick?... That's a pretty sizable shift at this range for the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dereknel Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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