Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS had a closed low for a few hours this run. Every model that does this impacts us more with the coastal later 558 DM 12z was in western MD now its in Northern OH. Big difference and nice bowling ball structure showing at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS just peed in the punch bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS is definitely headed towards a deform band idea like most other guidance at 48. Surface is sloppy still but once it focuses on the western side of the elongated low its showing it will reflect more precip west. Model correction in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, mdhokie said: GFS just peed in the punch bowl. Confluence worse not a good 0z start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Is the RGEM 30 hours of snow again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: Is the RGEM 30 hours of snow again? basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Gfs is the last model I'd use 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Any thoughts on the coastal forming too far off shore at this point? I only ask bc too many times over the years, we have a great set up like this but bc it’s not coming from the south—we sometimes put too much stock in accumulations based on the “transfer of energy.” I feel like it’s a rarity in these parts to have that lull and then the thump a few hours later from the coastal... no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Gfs is the last model I'd use 12 hours out Let's not forget that it's being replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Gfs is the last model I'd use 12 hours out So which one are you hugging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Gfs is the last model I'd use 12 hours out 3k NAM still looks p good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is the last model I'd use 12 hours out I thought you would melt down about the GFS. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 FV3 0.25” just north of the M/D line and 0.5” covers all of NOVA and is north of DC into MoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 FV3 holds the line and moves the 0.5" line just north of DCA Ninja'd by nj2va lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs is the last model I'd use 12 hours out Its a disaster!! Been progressively worse for 6 straight runs. Can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Any thoughts on the coastal forming too far off shore at this point? I only ask bc too many times over the years, we have a great set up like this but bc it’s not coming from the south—we sometimes put too much stock in accumulations based on the “transfer of energy.” I feel like it’s a rarity in these parts to have that lull and then the thump a few hours later from the coastal... no? It's always possible the transfer can throw a wrench but by the time the shortwave passes through it's pretty squashed. Much of the snow for many happens before the transfer. We probably won't clearly know how its going to work until this time tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS verbatim is about 0.2" in DC. Reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Fv3 has been very steady for at least 4 runs now. I'll lean with consistency and also because it's really good in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: GFS verbatim is about 0.2" in DC. Reasonable. No. It's closer to 0.3" anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I always have liked to watch model trends and it rarely has let me down below 72 hours. I get the high is pushing a bit more on the GFS but its important to see what the model is doing at the surface vs 500mb. The GFS still is trying to enlongate the low and not have a nice clean transfer and that effects winds at the surface and aloft. The focus needs to be on the low closer to OBX vs the low out in the ocean. it has big time implications as to how and where a deformation band can set up. It is definitely catching up to the idea but its not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: GFS verbatim is about 0.2" in DC. Reasonable. Compared to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I thought you would melt down about the GFS. Very nice. Its always the east and south most model on all these kinds of storms...and often driest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I thought you would melt down about the GFS. Very nice. Its always the east and south most model on all these kinds of storms...and often driest it didn't really seem farther south and east this run. it almost looked better, but for some reason qpf was a little lighter on the north side. south side looked a little better, though. not sure what to take from that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 So many models (GFS, FV3, NAM 12k, NAM 3k, CMC, RGEM, HRPDRPS, Icon) when all we really need to do is follow the Euro. Let’s not overthink this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 CMC is drier too. But still acceptable. We take, er, hug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 HRDPS has backed down a little as well. Still. all of the models show a 2-4/3-6 event. Which is what most of us expected all along. Will someone hit 8? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Latest WPC forecast. Very reasonable and a good kick off to the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: So many models (GFS, FV3, NAM 12k, NAM 3k, CMC, RGEM, HRPDRPS, Icon) when all we really need to do is follow the Euro. Let’s not overthink this. We do unless it shows something we don’t like. We tend to endorse the best model output but know the worst output will likely verify. Can’t remember the last time the snowiest model was the one that won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: HRDPS has backed down a little as well. Still. all of the models show a 2-4/3-6 event. Which is what most of us expected all along. Will someone hit 8? Yep. All models have waffled back and forth but the consensus has pretty much been some where between 2 and 6 inches for last 4 or 5 days. If we end up in that range that's impressive in imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We do unless it shows something we don’t like. We tend to endorse the best model output but know the worst output will likely verify. Can’t remember the last time the snowiest model was the one that won Exactly. Why the GFS shouldn't be ignored. 2-3" seems reasonable for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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