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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF

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Icon now has the closed low at 500 it tried to get it 18z but definitely has it now. 

That closing really is amplifying the heights in front of the storm more then prior runs its also slowing the primary down and keeping it stronger longer.

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2 minutes ago, Beachin said:

Icon now has the closed low at 500 it tried to get it 18z but definitely has it now. 

That closing really is amplifying the heights in front of the storm more then prior runs its also slowing the primary down and keeping it stronger longer.

Time for the Germans to lead the pack! Oh. And my wiener schnitzel is ready. Be back for the GFS. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, same idea as the euro now. Interesting. Storm has slowed dowm and a little more amplified so confluence eases up enough for the ccb to cross our area. It's tricky but interesting 

gotta love the 3:1 ratio on the Icon

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

HR 45 and 48 on 00z ICON are nice... coastal influence, yes?

Funny I was going to say the rgem looked odd for Maryland with the long dry slot then coastal redevelopment even up here but the icon is doing the same. It's what's left of the h5 low making a perfect pass in conjunction with just enough moisture transport from the coastal to create that little banding feature over is. Interesting wrinkle if other guidance shows that. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Funny I was going to say the rgem looked odd for Maryland with the long dry slot then coastal redevelopment even up here but the icon is doing the same. It's what's left of the h5 low making a perfect pass in conjunction with just enough moisture transport from the coastal to create that little banding feature over is. Interesting wrinkle if other guidance shows that. 

Look at the hourly 18z euro loop posted earlier. Same thing.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Funny I was going to say the rgem looked odd for Maryland with the long dry slot then coastal redevelopment even up here but the icon is doing the same. It's what's left of the h5 low making a perfect pass in conjunction with just enough moisture transport from the coastal to create that little banding feature over is. Interesting wrinkle if other guidance shows that. 

odds that that actually happens...lol....sounds like a 60 yard FG

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You guys know hugging qpf maps is the most novice thing a snow weenie could do right? Jesus. Check for track, 500 mb setup, temps, etc... but hanging your head on “oh it showed 0.4 of qpf, now 0.3” is ludicrous. If you want to use models for QPF, use the RAPP when the time comes (short term). 

Looking good for a solid moderate event for the entire BAL DC NOVA corridor. S PA will see great ratios and will get the inevitable ccb band just south of the convergence zone. 

Wait and see time.... 

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