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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF

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NAM still looks okay but it certainly having issues with the surface low along the coast. Been very jumpy from run to run. Probably best to hedge away from using them in order to figure out that aspect of the forecast. As far as WAA snows look, still looks good for the entire area with nothing really changing at this point. Tight northern cutoff in the works, but somewhere near the cutoff there will likely be a convergence zone that develops and leads to some of the better snow ratios and prime dendritic growth. Happened with the Dec storm and areas like 40-50 miles south of DC/NoVa got hit good. We shall see. Heading to bed since I gotta be up and leaving in 7.5 hours. Have a great night!


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Just now, Ji said:

3k is a disaster

 

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

12k NAM looks better overall.

 

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm liking the 3km NAM

 

14 minutes ago, Fozz said:

0z NAM has slashed totals north of DC. Not sure how much it's worth, but not really what I wanted to see. Maybe 18z was too wet.

Nice pbp guys 

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Just now, caviman2201 said:

Kuchera numbers for both DC and Baltimore went down on both 12k and 3k unless I'm completely missing something... Not saying it's bad just not understanding how it's anything but worse

Its not as good as 18z. Not debatable. That said, I am not worried. 18z always seems unrealistically jacked for some reason.

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

NAM still looks okay but it certainly having issues with the surface low along the coast. Been very jumpy from run to run. Probably best to hedge away from using them in order to figure out that aspect of the forecast.


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Was just going to post something similar. This is a large system with a transfer. I really dont trust the nams at all with that scenario. Its not just now and then... the nams jump around do strange things every single storm. 6z will be something new and then 12z and so on.

Euro, fv3, ukie, and gfs are pretty steady run over run. I'll stick with those and ignore the nams. 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

You really need help. Losing your shit over the one model that has been absolutely pathetic so far for this event? It has flip flopped like a fish out of water for 2 days?

And the truth is it wouldn’t be sunny in Leesburg based on that.  Cmon Ji.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Wouldn't be surprised if it backs down from 18z. Kinda expecting it. If it backs down from 12z we have reason to complain but if it's still 2-5" the forecast hasnt really changed in days

I mean anything can happen but let’s not let the NAM rain on our parade. 

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