psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, snowdude said: Wow! 10:1 ratios here. It keeps tightening up the northern edge such that even though it looks much better the last couple runs for D.C. it hasn't improved at all along the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Euro showing 5” near Baltimore 7-8” near dc. Nam shows 6-8 for both. RGEM the same. FV3 shows 4-7”. I’d say we’re locked in. I do understand why they haven’t expanded warnings. It’s on the cusp. 00z tonight trends even stronger and maybe we have a shot at one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That last little blob Sunday night would be the icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 18Z NAM Cobb data. I will only post the line with the highest snow total. Ir you want to look at the rest of the data. Go to this link and enter your closest airport: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kmrb MRB: 190113/1800Z 48 04008KT 29.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 11:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 IAD: 190113/2000Z 50 02007KT 30.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 DCA: 190113/2000Z 50 03007KT 30.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 10:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0 BWI: 190113/1900Z 49 03008KT 29.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 11:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0 WOO: 190113/1900Z 49 04006KT 27.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 9:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It keeps tightening up the northern edge such that even though it looks much better the last couple runs for D.C. it hasn't improved at all along the PA line. I'm just glad we haven't lost any ground today along the pa line. I'm 5 miles from the state line in Smithsburg. (Washington county) I'm hoping we see the usual 25 mile bump north the last 12 to 24 hours to help @mappy @losetoa6 @psuhoffman and all of the other fellow northerers out. I think you will have your normal death band set up overs parrs ridge as usual lol. Thanks for all your insight. It's appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm just glad we haven't lost any ground today along the pa line. I'm 5 miles from the state line in Smithsburg. (Washington county) I'm hoping we see the usual 25 mile bump north the last 12 to 24 hours to help @mappy @losetoa6 @psuhoffman and all of the other fellow northerers out. I think you will have your normal death band set up overs parrs ridge as usual lol. Thanks for all your insight. It's appreciated. I'm of the northern crew. -76.796954 39.473706 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It keeps tightening up the northern edge such that even though it looks much better the last couple runs for D.C. it hasn't improved at all along the PA line. It is a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It keeps tightening up the northern edge such that even though it looks much better the last couple runs for D.C. it hasn't improved at all along the PA line. I feel so bad for Mappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Northern folks are nervous. Only means one thing... congrats in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Northern folks are nervous. Only means one thing... congrats in advance Indeed. Always happens. "You guys in DC enjoy it, I'll be smoking cirrus" Storm time: Wow! I can't believe it, it's puking fatties outside! Up to 3" in 12 minutes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: I feel so bad for Mappy Don't start that sh*t tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Indeed. Always happens. "You guys in DC enjoy it, I'll be smoking cirrus" Storm time: Wow! I can't believe it, it's puking fatties outside! Up to 3" in 12 minutes!!! Storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I know it's the SREF but they have shifted north again from 15z. Here is BWI and even APG the mean Is 4.5 almost 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ^take out those 3 or 4 high outliers and rerun the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: ^take out those 3 or 4 high outliers and rerun the SREF. Oh I agree for sure but 09z run had the mean at bwi 2 inches and now its 6 so it's definitely went up alot from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: ^take out those 3 or 4 high outliers and rerun the SREF. It’s still a sizable shift and can’t be a bad thing. Just reinforcing good trends. .8 mean at dca and even gets .16 up to JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Beachin said: Nam looks phenomenal NAM def looking warmer in the southern half of the forum, as it shows more of a tendency for sleet and zr. Def not a trend I want to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 59 minutes ago, winterymix said: I'm of the northern crew. -76.796954 39.473706 I'd say Reisterstown and Cockeysville are in that in-between area. Not inside the Baltimore beltway, but not really near the M/D line either. But in this case, yeah we'd definitely like to see a last minute north jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM def looking warmer in the southern half of the forum, as it shows more of a tendency for sleet and zr. Def not a trend I want to see here. Stick with the euro/ukie combo. Nam will be good for temps at 12z tomorrow. It's a jump unreliable model that often misleads and adds confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Nam is definitely holding energy back resulting in a slower storm and slower transfer. Heights definitely amplified rather well to the closed low formation in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Stick with the euro/ukie combo. Nam will be good for temps at 12z tomorrow. It's a jump unreliable model that often misleads and adds confusion. Thermal structure does make me have cause for concern however when it shows certain instances. Obv as we know one of the better models to focus on regarding that. I absolutely love the way the GGEM and RGEM look for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Stick with the euro/ukie combo. Nam will be good for temps at 12z tomorrow. It's a jump unreliable model that often misleads and adds confusion. Eh, it's good news for up our way and you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 0z NAM has slashed totals north of DC. Not sure how much it's worth, but not really what I wanted to see. Maybe 18z was too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: Eh, it's good news for up our way and you know it. Lol- still won't change which models i have the most trust in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Lol- still won't change which models i have the most trust in. Nam has an interesting 2nd area of lift over most of VA as the low gets going off the coast after the main shield of precip has vacated the area. That will be something to watch and see if it’s anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, Fozz said: I'd say Reisterstown and Cockeysville are in that in-between area. Not inside the Baltimore beltway, but not really near the M/D line either. But in this case, yeah we'd definitely like to see a last minute north jump. I'm looking at 0Z NAM surface snow depth at hour 45. [instantweathermaps.com] A broad section of VA centered on Culpepper have six inches. So...half of that in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'm liking the 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I liked seeing the 0.75” expand in NOVA to the S/W of DC on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Nam has an interesting 2nd area of lift over most of VA as the low gets going off the coast after the main shield of precip has vacated the area. That will be something to watch and see if it’s anything meaningful.18z EURO did the same thing, which lends some credence to the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm liking the 3km NAM 12km is sick for our latitude. Just looked. Thought it might be crappola from some of the posts. Then I realized it’s the northern folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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