Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: Forget the fact it's still snowing beyond 42 hours Yea, that and the most important 18z model isn't out for another 90 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Wusa not too impressed WBFF is bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Kind of a dumb question: But at what time/what range do the ops no longer become useful? I feel like after 12z tomorrow we'll be in the "nowcasting" stage and at that point the GFS can only tell us so much, but maybe i'm way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, jackb979 said: Kind of a dumb question: But at what time/what range do the ops no longer become useful? I feel like after 12z tomorrow we'll be in the "nowcasting" stage and at that point the GFS can only tell us so much, but maybe i'm way off Honestly, we're pretty locked in already. The run over run wobbles will continue but the localized areas that do the best won't be known until after the event. Models are in unanimous agreement for the most part. For DC just think 3-5" is the most likely outcome with a chance for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 After 0z it’s mostly a gametime thing with a bigger focus on the Mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, JakkelWx said: That user might need to step away from the keyboard for a little while. No he is on a mission. It’s fine right. If his mission succeeds we get less snow. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: No he is on a mission. It’s fine right. If his mission succeeds we get less snow. Ok. Yep, been doing it for several years. Only shows up near game time and only looks on the downside. Has not broken character one single time. Expect more of it every six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: After 0z it’s mostly a gametime thing with a bigger focus on the Mesos I think it's pretty much over now. After the 18z EURO that is. PWC looks to be in a pretty decent position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Stormpc said: I think it's pretty much over now. After the 18z EURO that is. PWC looks to be in a pretty decent position. Agreed. South of the potomac and SoMD has the best chance at more than 5". It's nice that models have come to full agreement that everyone gets at least 2". NE MD is probably the only place at risk for less than that but I doubt it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: I think it's pretty much over now. After the 18z EURO that is. PWC looks to be in a pretty decent position. Yep. We are good. Again 3 or 4 or 5. Doesn’t matter it’s all snow no pingers or waiting on cold air or some other weather voodoo and we are having fun. If we get skunked I will be the first to meltdown. Don’t think that’s happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Agreed. South of the potomac and SoMD has the best chance at more than 5". It's nice that models have come to full agreement that everyone gets at least 2". NE MD is probably the only place at risk for less than that but I doubt it now. I am prepared for many hours of snow reports from west and south of me before it starts here. It'll be one of those days. psuhoffman will have moderate snow for hours before it gets across the county to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Yep. We are good. Again 3 or 4 or 5. Doesn’t matter it’s all snow no pingers or waiting on cold air or some other weather voodoo and we are having fun. If we get skunked I will be the first to meltdown. Don’t think that’s happening. My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. I got 1.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Fv3's detailed qpf: Before the blanket stops by and reminds us that it's less than 12z... it's very similar to the euro and right in line with consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. DCA was over 2" fwiw\ shows 1.4" in the record 3" for iad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. Not sure if you consider N. Arlington to be NOVA, but we got 1.5” in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. Loudoun got a late upgrade to 4"-6" of snow and verified with a 5" at JYO from a spotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. Nov overperformed for me but the last few years have been unkind to DC/NOVA relative to the rest of the area. Hopefully the max stripe is over NOVA/DC when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: My bar is still 2". That's probably the worst case scenario. 6" is probably the max but I really doubt it for me. Nova might pull that off which would be great. Nova didn't do well in Nov right? I got 2.2" with that event. I don't remember what Nova folks got though. I did ok. From what recall. Nov snow is a gift. Didn’t keep on giving however. As you pointed out a week and half ago this was rain. We’ve come along way baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hm. I had 2.2" in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 WBFF is bullishWdca 20 8-12Q107 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3's detailed qpf: Before the blanket stops by and reminds us that it's less than 12z... it's very similar to the euro and right in line with consensus. It's also like a mere 30-40 mile bump to get almost everyone south of Baltimore into warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: I did ok. From what recall. Nov snow is a gift. Didn’t keep on giving however. As you pointed out a week and half ago this was rain. We’ve come along way baby! I got 1.5 in November and 1.0 from the December squeezer. I'm just glad that waa leaf is not forecasted to arc into PA, rather move nearly west to east from WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Stormpc said: I got 1.5 in November and 1.0 from the December squeezer. I'm just glad that waa leaf is not forecasted to arc into PA, rather move nearly west to east from WV. I guess I got that too. Maybe a shade more. Got zilch in Dec. that was a heartbreaker. 10 miles south got inch and better from there. I did get to claim that from Bristow north to Brunswick Maine was a shutout. A losers win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3's detailed qpf: Before the blanket stops by and reminds us that it's less than 12z... it's very similar to the euro and right in line with consensus. Very solid. Looks like euro. Looks like mesos. 18z euro holds within .1 or so range and its all good at that point for a solid 3-5 most places. Im officially in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's also like a mere 30-40 mile bump to get almost everyone south of Baltimore into warning level snow. The key will be coastal enhancement. Sometimes there can be an agonizing lull as the waa loses lift/dynamics as low pressure off of NC starts to takeover the show. Other times bands setup further NW than models show and some people get surprised. Nearly every snow event has some tricks in real time. Gotta just let it run its course. If we're going to bust it could be from underperforming during the waa precip and getting caught in between with the coastal. It's a very juicy storm though and models have done nothing except bump up the waa totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 feb 6-7, 2003 sort of reminds me of this one...not exact, but maybe a further south version of that one, which also had temps to work with and layed down an easy 5-6". more of a coastal impact with that system, but i think boom is possible if we can get into a moderate band for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Wdca 20 8-12 Q107 4-8 8-12 where? Nova? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: 8-12 where? Nova? Elkins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Wdca 20 8-12 Q107 4-8 No wonder Ji is always such a negative Nellie. He gets his weather forecast from channel 20 and Q107! They Never verify! 8-12?? come on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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