Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Coastal never climbs, mod snow maybe tickles EZF for a panel or 2 but that's about it. Ugly run. Wondering if we won't lock down the coastal bit until close to game time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Still 2-3" even though its ugly Ugly as in we never get out of -SN/Flurries and miss the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 If I only had this panel to go off of I wouldn't get excited. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: GFS made no friends in the upper levels. It's hard to distinguish between noise and trends though. Agreed. When we get close to game time we take a 25-50 mile switch in precip shield as a trend when in the grand scheme of things it's just noise. This was not a good run but let's wait to see 12z GEFS, GEPS and EPS before talking trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Agreed. When we get close to game time we take a 25-50 mile switch in precip shield as a trend when in the grand scheme of things it's just noise. This was not a good run but let's wait to see 12z GEFS, GEPS and EPS before talking trends. We're awful close to just using ops now. Some of the storm is beyond 72 hours but the utility of ens will be over @ 12z today imho. 12z ops should be given the most weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 it's a pretty flat look. the storm doesn't gain enough latitude and there's really nothing that keeps it from shooting ots. gonna need everything to be further north, but 500 isn't inspiring at all. at least we have temps on our side, so any scraps from the first part should stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Have to wait for the QPF maps... but FWIW, 12z CMC looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Have to wait for the QPF maps... but FWIW, 12z CMC looks fine Typically, when you say it looks "fine", its about a 20% reduction from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're awful close to just using ops now. Some of the storm is beyond 72 hours but the utility of ens will be over @ 12z today imho. 12z ops should be given the most weight. So what would be your response if the 12z ensembles were split between a larger coastal solution for our area and a miss to the south like they have been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That model depiction is literally my forecast. You can even see the secondary enhancement over Parr’s Ridge Nice! I'd sign up for that right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: So what would be your response if the 12z ensembles were split between a larger coastal solution for our area and a miss to the south like they have been showing? I'd side with the op's version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 That was ugly. A few drawn out inches on Snow TV? Anyone worried that the mountains could start robbing us of even the WAA. The thought just crossed my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 0.5" QPF in DCA with 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: That was ugly. A few drawn out inches on Snow TV? Anyone worried that the mountains could start robbing us of even the WAA. The thought just crossed my mind. Good models should account for that as well as virga. Ops already show it with more precip west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: That was ugly. A few drawn out inches on Snow TV? Anyone worried that the mountains could start robbing us of even the WAA. The thought just crossed my mind. Yeah things are not going in our favor right now. without the WAA (which is getting drier it seems), there won't be much to talk about once the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 So I mean...We haven't deviated much from the general 2-4" that been the forecast all week, right? If that is still the most likely solution, we oughta count anything else as a bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 widespread 2-4" with more DCA south. Good run I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 at least for me in central MoCo, the CMC more than doubled the snowfall (7", vs. 3") from its 0z run. Yes it's the Canadian, but we can hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So I mean...We haven't deviated much from the general 2-4" that been the forecast all week, right? If that is still the most likely solution, we oughta count anything else as a bonus! Yeah, and if 12z today puts the nail in the coffin on a warming event I’d rather know sooner than later. Still somewhat encouraging the EPS hasn’t given up on the coastal completely yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 We all need to drink Molson and support the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So I mean...We haven't deviated much from the general 2-4" that been the forecast all week, right? If that is still the most likely solution, we oughta count anything else as a bonus! If something similar to the latest GFS solution plays out, I think we'd be lucky to see 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Sunday evening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: We all need to drink Molson and support the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Here's the Fv3 QPF. I think everyone here would be thrilled with this at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @Bob Chill I am going with the 12z CMC/FV3 and not looking at anything else... unless UKIE/EURO show same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: So what would be your response if the 12z ensembles were split between a larger coastal solution for our area and a miss to the south like they have been showing? If the GEFS has a large majority showing more qpf and better progression then it's a sign that the op might be wrong but it needs to be overwhelming. If it's anywhere near an equal split then hedging with the op's version will win more battles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If I only had this panel to go off of I wouldn't get excited. lol I looked at all the h5 panels for the same stamp at 12z and that is by far the worst. The NAM is better. Too close in time to ignore I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If I only had this panel to go off of I wouldn't get excited. lol It was an absolutely awful run if we were holding out hope for more then a very low end event from the WAA. That system crashing into CA is a big problem...it undercuts the western ridge and links up with the elongating/compressing trough and helps to flatten it even more which pretty much kills any chance for the coastal to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: This plus a fabled 50-75 mile shift to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: And when we account for our 50 mile North shift then the bullseye is over DC. Here’s tipping back my Molson to you CMC. Real Models of Genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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