CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Faquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA. There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area. At least S. Faquier I would agree with the rest. PWC has quite the spread with 8 at the southern tip to 4 in the north. But that lollipop should throw them in the mix of a watch. Certainly Stafford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm really only interested in Euro QPF, and I suspect the storm will be juicier than euro depicts....Folks on the edge of the 0.25" contour will outperform model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Let’s just hug the RGEM I was just about to post that lol ninja’d I tell you what too... CMC has consistently pointed at higher totals (little ebb and flow) and better coastal enhancement. The 12z is even better than 0z lol. If it scores a coup on the gfs/euro I’ll build a mini shrine to it on my desk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Folks on the edge of the 0.25" contour will outperform model output Replace "folks" with mappy/psu/highstakes/losetoa6 and your analysis is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 We need sref analysis. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Replace "folks" with mappy/psu/highstakes/losetoa6 and your analysis is perfect. I'm gonna put a jar out to collect and then melt the snow afterwards to see what my total is, really curious this storm to see how well (or don't) i do with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: We need sref analysis. Anyone? Best to hold off until 18z Sunday for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Good luck guys! I’ll take my 1-2 (hopefully 3) inches of snow in southern Berks County, PA. Pattern looks great ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: I'm gonna put a jar out to collect and then melt the snow afterwards to see what my total is, really curious this storm to see how well (or don't) i do with ratios. I'm looking forward to your "Wow, I have 4.5". I expected almost nothing. This is a pleasant surprise!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 One clue that helps lock in a decent event around here is the mix line has continuously bumped further north. The battlezone being so close is a good sign that we're going to do fine. Deep cold into NC usually breaks on the light side. Having the mix line move into the northern neck is one of the classic positions for not worrying about things drying out at the last minute. Someone just north of where that line sets up is probably in a boom spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We need sref analysis. Anyone? I thought I had unbookmarked this because of its consistent betrayals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: I'm looking forward to your "Wow, I have 4.5". I expected almost nothing. This is a pleasant surprise!" you and me both, friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight. What is the end time frame? I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning. Thought? Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One clue that helps lock in a decent event around here is the mix line has continuously bumped further north. The battlezone being so close is a good sign that we're going to do fine. Deep cold into NC usually breaks on the light side. Having the mix line move into the northern neck is one of the classic positions for not worrying about things drying out at the last minute. Someone just north of where that line sets up is probably in a boom spot. Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight. What is the end time frame? I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning. Thought? Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. That can't be answered accurately at this time. Anything would be a wag. It depends how things go once we are at gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, wawarriors4 said: Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend. EZF is almost certainly not going to mix. I wouldn't worry about that. It's possible but even if the mix line approaches you'll make up for it with bigger QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend. I agree with Bob. Have family down there so I get reports...bad ones but still something. If there is any pingers they would be east of the fall line/95 is my guess but I don't think its an issue either until maybe Caroline County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z HRDPS is impressive - best stuff stays south of the area but even so, has 4-8 inches with more to come after the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I feel like the Canadian models had one really good winter a few years back where it was consistently performing really well, especially the RGEM, and then everyone started giving it a lot more credence and it has failed rather miserably since then, often portraying colder temps and more snow than what actually falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, GEOS5ftw said: 12z HRDPS is impressive - best stuff stays south of the area but even so, has 4-8 inches with more to come after the run ends. Is the best stuff in the Richmond to EZF area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Is the best stuff in the Richmond to EZF area? Yes Here is the total QPF map through 48... it is still snowing for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Is the best stuff in the Richmond to EZF area? The HerpDerp is on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight. What is the end time frame? I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning. Thought? Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. the system is 2 parts tomorrow into sunday morning is the overrunning warm air advection snow then the coastal portion takes over so if anyone sees snow into sunday evening or even monday, its because of the coastal. those finer details seem to be still up in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I feel like the Canadian models had one really good winter a few years back where it was consistently performing really well, especially the RGEM, and then everyone started giving it a lot more credence and it has failed rather miserably since then, often portraying colder temps and more snow than what actually falls. I noticed the Canadian models in general are better with handling a CAD setup where margins of error are very small. Now, they can over-do the setup and create some discrepancy on the p-type, but they can handle the general idea right. In these types of setups, I tend to shy away from the Canadian guidance, except the HRDPS when it comes to immediate short term. That model has a solid track record with adjustments in the near term, similar to the 3km NAM and to some degree the HRRR (Rare but happens on occasion. Use HRRR at your own risk). The RAP can be good as well in the near term and actually is geared for the synoptic scale with its 13km Res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Paleocene said: The HerpDerp is on TT. Quite a NW to SE wall it hits on the N. Faquier/PWC NE border. very interesting but explains effect the dry air circulation to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 After seeing this morning's runs and the new models rolling in now, I think 3-6 looks pretty likely for the area, especially DC south. I think we see some people report 6-8 if the coastal is closer than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: The HerpDerp is on TT. Another nice run from a Canadian model. They are very consistent with 4-8 for the metro DC area...would be really great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 DT’s first guess was mocked but it looks like today’s runs give it more credibility. He nailed the December storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Agree with something BobChill said about the mix line coming north in more recent model runs and how that's a positive for our area. You definitely want mixing into Virginia to get the better stuff up our way. Hopefully, that line creeps a bit farther north in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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