LP08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Precip max continues to bullseye EZF and just north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Precip max continues to bullseye EZF and just north of there. DC is a good place to be sitting considering the 24 hour rule of 30-60 mile adjustment north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Snow into the Shenandoah Valley late morning tomorrow. Into DC early afternoon. Moderate snow into the area late evening. So basically this time tomorrow it's snowing at your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 6Z GFS Cobb data. I am not going to post the entire thing. It is too long. I will just post the highest snow total for each airport. If you want to see all of the data from your closest airport go here and enter your airport code: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kiad kmrb: 190113/0800Z 50 11004KT 28.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 kiad: 190113/1400Z 56 07006KT 29.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 kdca: 190113/1500Z 57 06007KT 31.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 9:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 kbwi: 190113/1500Z 57 06007KT 29.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 woo: 190113/2000Z 62 05006KT 29.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 9:1| 6.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0 Ratios are pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Only real change from yesterday is stronger WAA over the MA region and longer duration. That is what generates our snow. No influence from the coastal, except perhaps the eastern shore as it slides off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z was clearly a step back from 6z's improvement. That's pretty clear to me, same goes for the ICON. It looks like what PSU is saying for us northern folk... more coastal steals moisture from WAA precip. Need the late game 40 mile north trend. Thought we'd continue the run after unanimous improvement at 6z, but alas the usual occurs the next cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Rgem has been consistent. Most models trending our way. Good runs so far this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FV3 has .5 into dc and surrounding burbs. .25 up to pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, DDweatherman said: 12z was clearly a step back from 6z's improvement. That's pretty clear to me, same goes for the ICON. It looks like what PSU is saying for us northern folk... more coastal steals moisture from WAA precip. Need the late game 40 mile north trend. Thought we'd continue the run after unanimous improvement at 6z, but alas the usual occurs the next cycle. I think at this point it's just noise. The shift was nothing more than a wobble inside a pretty tight envelope. Could easily bump the other way at 18z but it would be noise again. Chips fall here shortly. Storms always differ a little from short range guidance. The lucky ones will be figured out in real time imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 CMC Is better then its 00z run for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gfs holds from 6z. Not much change. Slight change for my back yard in Arlington. 6z had me 4-5” this is 3-4”. So slight qpf reduction across the area on the whole. Not horrible but definitely didn’t bump up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: 12z was clearly a step back from 6z's improvement. That's pretty clear to me, same goes for the ICON. It looks like what PSU is saying for us northern folk... more coastal steals moisture from WAA precip. Need the late game 40 mile north trend. Thought we'd continue the run after unanimous improvement at 6z, but alas the usual occurs the next cycle. Thinking those calling for the large areas of 6 to 10 inches in the region are going to find these amounts are isolated and/or higher elevations. 2 to 4 seems prudent and the higher amounts will be 4 to 6 inches for the majority of people. We will see if the EURO holds serve, but I suspect it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I think at this point it's just noise. The shift was nothing more than a wobble inside a pretty tight envelope. Could easily bump the other way at 18z but it would be noise again. Chips fall here shortly. Storms always differ a little from short range guidance. The lucky ones will be figured out in real time imho That's true Bob. We know the tendencies that do exist with a WAA swath of precip (i.e. timing and possible banding). The DGZ layer does look solid for good ratios, especially north of DC up to PSU land. I would say that part could present some upside for those lucky enough at gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Per Wes on FB, he liks 2-4 for DCA and north, 3-5 across S. MD. He thinks LWX's snow map is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, PivotPoint said: Slight change for my back yard in Arlington. 6z had me 4-5” this is 3-4”. So slight qpf reduction across the area on the whole. Not horrible but definitely didn’t bump up It’s noise. A global isn’t going to nail precip to the .1. I wouldn’t worry. You can see on the precip maps that it’s starting to pick up on banding, etc so the contours will shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Thinking those calling for the large areas of 6 to 10 inches in the region are going to find these amounts are isolated and/or higher elevations. 2 to 4 seems prudent and the higher amounts will be 4 to 6 inches for the majority of people. We will see if the EURO holds serve, but I suspect it will. I'd agree, I think over the last 24 hours I'm more inclined to go 3-5 with 6" lolli's over 2-4, but that's certainly a safe play and one news outlets other than CWG 0-8 will present us as their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yoda, this is snowing lightly? Rgem likes to get precip happy so it's likely too high imho Eta: meteo goes out to hr 54 right? If so scratch this That ice threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per Wes on FB, he liks 2-4 for DCA and north, 3-5 across S. MD. He thinks LWX's snow map is reasonable. And here is current said LWX snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: It’s noise. A global isn’t going to nail precip to the .1. I wouldn’t worry. You can see on the precip maps that it’s starting to pick up on banding, etc so the contours will shift around. Yea I did see the contour shifts and I’m not too worried. Less than I was yesterday that’s for sure! But I’m pretty happy with my call of 2-4” I made two days ago. Has felt that way to me and all the guidance I’ve absorb over last 72hours lol hasn’t really changed that general premise. Chill is probably right, just model noise as we close in. Almost game time so feeling solid at this point for putting a score on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Faquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA. There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Fully realize most people won’t care, but for my fellow posters in the CHO area I’m getting slightly concerned about us being too far south for the WAA stuff and not close enough to the coastal. Been a persistent dry area just south of CHO for the past couple GFS runs. The usual tick north at the end might make us upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 If you had a mindset that this was likely a 2-4" event with some modest risk of boom/bust beyond that, then nothing all week has really changed that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 What are we thinking about ratios? 11/12:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 i don't think a lot has changed since yesterday. the same general idea on 12z applies...there's clues as to how this could boom and there's clues as to how this could bust. we need the first part of this storm to verify and/or the coastal to be further north and not get punted ots so easily by that stout high funneling in from the GL. we should know more by monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Yea I did see the contour shifts and I’m not too worried. Less than I was yesterday that’s for sure! But I’m pretty happy with my call of 2-4” I made two days ago. Has felt that way to me and all the guidance I’ve absorb over last 72hours lol hasn’t really changed that general premise. Chill is probably right, just model noise as we close in. Almost game time so feeling solid at this point for putting a score on the board Let’s just hug the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Fauquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA. There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area. Was thinking the same thing, would imagine it would come after the 12z Euro....... LOL, 12z CMC just dropped over 1" of QPF in EZF, a little over done I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 These slight QPF shifts are kind of irrelevant. Plus the models rarely get the secondary banding in the usual places. Death banding in the usual locations is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: What are we thinking about ratios? 11/12:1? Kuchera and soundings show that potential. Every run changes where the best DGZ. I saw some 15:1 yesterday near DC. Haven't looked at soundings today. 10:1 minimum is a safe bet. Things look good for both our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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