LP08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: NAM’ing incoming lol. It shows 22 inches in Missouri though so yeah We need at least one run of those for every storm to make it a “storm”, right? Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 At 42 the heights are way higher then 6z coastal should be north again. 48 so close to something big so so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hoping to get at least an inch or two in South NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 25 mile shift north incoming?? 500 looks better on the NAMerama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Hoping to get at least an inch or two in South NJ I think coastal SE NJ and Delaware has a shot at heavy banding making it on shore from the coastal, especially if this trend continues. Not looking great for inland areas north of the del memorial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 to 6 inches for DC region by 12z Sunday per 12z NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Despite the better 500 look early it appears to have trimmed back totals in the Northern area and holds steady around DC, but of course its the NAM past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Nam is still struggling at the surface as to where the slp should be. This run could have been much much bigger for all. I suspect the "better" models will do better with it. There really is nothing preventing this storm from coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 4 to 6 inches for DC region by 12z Sunday per 12z NAM lol NAM will be in range by 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z NAM is about a tenth drier for MD line to Baltimore. DC the same as 06z (~.5 qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Beachin said: Nam is still struggling at the surface as to where the slp should be. This run could have been much much bigger for all. I suspect the "better" models will do better with it. There really is nothing preventing this storm from coming north. Except for the strong confluence in New England and a mainly west to east 500 mb setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, jayyy said: Except for the strong confluence in New England and a mainly west to east 500 mb setup Yep! Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, jayyy said: Except for the strong confluence in New England and a mainly west to east 500 mb setup You’re not wrong, however in this case the nam did have a better look aloft, and probably should have been a better run. Let’s see what the rest of the suite has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Except for the strong confluence in New England and a mainly west to east 500 mb setup The confluence has been weaker and weaker ever run. The trend is to also not "flatten out" as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, mappy said: 12z NAM is about a tenth drier for MD line to Baltimore. DC the same as 06z (~.5 qpf) Due to the NWS relationships we have on the board we know we can safely toss the NAM and GFS, only if it looks worse of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: Due to the NWS relationships we have on the board we know we can safely toss the NAM and GFS, only if it looks worse of course. if i were in DC, I'd be hugging all the morning runs. They look great for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3k gets DC in on the coastal action. Much improved over 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k gets DC in on the coastal action. Much improved over 06z. I think anybody between dc and Baltimore will do just find knowing model bias to be too weak / south. WAA is always more robust, temps are always lower than progged and the low is always father north. I’d say 9/10 times this is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Trend is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k gets DC in on the coastal action. Much improved over 06z. Sure is. I am liking the 12z 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 interesting how the NAM nest (vs the parent NAM) shut off the precipitation Saturday night for a few hours in southern MD and the EZF area. This, combined with some mixing, puts that area in a minimum for snow totals, while other guidance maximizes in that corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAMs should finally find consistency by 12z Sun. I'll wait until then before trusting them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: NAMs should finally find consistency by 12z Sun. I'll wait until then before trusting them 3km took my yard from betwixt and between at 6z to to jack city at 12z. I'll hug it for now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, mappy said: if i were in DC, I'd be hugging all the morning runs. They look great for you guys. Not sure I like the trend towards more coastal development for us up here. Our best shot was the WAA wave but that will shut off a little faster as the coastal takes over and so we are seeing the gradient tighten up...that could be good for DC and bad for us. Still time for another shift or two but not in love with the new look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z RGEM looks like it will continue the nice hit parade looking at the early precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure I like the trend towards more coastal development for us up here. Our best shot was the WAA wave but that will shut off a little faster as the coastal takes over and so we are seeing the gradient tighten up...that could be good for DC and bad for us. Still time for another shift or two but not in love with the new look right now. yeah its pretty lame for us, but i'll take whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: yeah its pretty lame for us, but i'll take whatever falls. We won't need a ton of qpf if we get higher ratios...so if we can get a small bump to like .3 we could get 3-5" up here...but if the coastal continues to trend stronger but not strong enough to influence us that could kill our area if it robs the lift and moisture transport from the WAA wave to the north sooner and everything collapses south as the ccb develops. If that ccb then does us no good we end up with weak sauce up here. On the other hand... we are not within another 30-40 mile bump north from having a very good result even up here so its not impossible. We have seen it many times...we had about that much of a north adjustment at the end on the Dec 9 storm only it did us no good since we were 100 miles out of the game that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12K NAM looks really nice throughout the corridor. 3-6 pretty much for everyone except far NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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