BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: euro is like .4qpf close to .5 Assume you are talking the 6z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: euro is like .4qpf close to .5 Maybe my 3-5 is coming back. Now we just gotta hope we don't take the dreaded momentum reverse at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Hi, where do you get these plots? Thanks. Nick -- he makes them himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, mappy said: Nick -- he makes them himself. Oh cool. Thanks. I hadnt seen anything that nice with the reps online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 06z euro, precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looking at the 6z Euro snow map(10:1) posted on that other site(per Tombo), looks like 4-6" from DC proper S and SW, same on the lower E shore and S DE, with 2-4" for the rest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Looking st the 6z Euro snow map(10:1) posted on that other site(per Tombo), looks like 4-6" from DC proper S and SW, same on the lower E shore and S DE, with 2-4" for the rest of the area. hopefully its in catchup mode and more qpf increase is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I hope this is all a trend that ups the ante at noon - we will see watches expand (as we all know - call me mr. obvious) - I like seeing thing trend better. We always do better when LWX is in catch up mode....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: hopefully its in catchup mode and more qpf increase is coming I just want a little CCB love from the coastal- need a shift/expansion NW of maybe 25 miles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm counting on a mini qpf max over northern Carroll . All joking aside I'm still thinking 3-5" for our area w/ ratios Not gonna lie I'm a little disappointed. I finally got a chance to look over the 6z stuff and after reading all the excitement here I was expecting good things but on the whole there was no improvement for us. Definitely bumped up qpf a lot to our south so if we get that to move north then it's great but if it stayed as is the 6z ribs don't give us anymore snow than the 0z did. Kinda a downer after hearing how good they were but good for D.C. doesnt mean good for northern MD lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I just want a little CCB love from the coastal- need a shift/expansion NW of maybe 25 miles here.You might want to chase to Rehoboth again Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, mappy said: 06z euro, precip Yeah, that's a decent increase down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I just want a little CCB love from the coastal- need a shift/expansion NW of maybe 25 miles here. I think you have a great chance. Even up here I'm hanging my hat on this...very non scientific point...in all my years in both northern VA, MD and PA I've never ever been fringed by a storm that was fringing me at 36-48 hours out. They always shifted north enough to get me from right on the edge to into the goods. When I got fringed was when at 36 hours I was 75 miles out of it and it trended north 50 miles and fringed me. So just by that very basic biased interpretation we should be good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not gonna lie I'm a little disappointed. I finally got a chance to look over the 6z stuff and after reading all the excitement here I was expecting good things but on the whole there was no improvement for us. Definitely bumped up qpf a lot to our south so if we get that to move north then it's great but if it stayed as is the 6z ribs don't give us anymore snow than the 0z did. Kinda a downer after hearing how good they were but good for D.C. doesnt mean good for northern MD lol. I looked as well, I am in the 0.2 at IMBY. Us Northern folks are suffering. I expect a slight improvement still , this is going down like last time in some respects but for other reasons already discussed. DC crowd should be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I was definitely feeling deb mode last night. Wake up to some improvements. Great to see euro catch on to them as well. I’ve been conditioned to expect worsening towards game time so it’s nice to see the opposite of that for once! Hopefully we can hold serve till tonight’s run then we’re pretty locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: You might want to chase to Rehoboth again Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk I never need much of a nudge to go down there, but not in the cards this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think you have a great chance. Even up here I'm hanging my hat on this...very non scientific point...in all my years in both northern VA, MD and PA I've never ever been fringed by a storm that was fringing me at 36-48 hours out. They always shifted north enough to get me from right on the edge to into the goods. When I got fringed was when at 36 hours I was 75 miles out of it and it trended north 50 miles and fringed me. So just by that very basic biased interpretation we should be good here. Even as is you will probably get 5" from 0.25" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Not sure how much value it has at this point, but the 6z EPS looks really nice. As expected at this lead, it supports the op. More impact from the coastal further north than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Climo always wins. Ratios will help the northern Md, PSU crowd catch up despite lower QPF totals. In fact, unless dc sees heavy CCB, I’d bet PSUhoffman sees more snow than the White House lawn because of elevation and overall climo. Looking good for 3-5” area wide after that 6z suite for anybody south of the PA MD border. Hoping 12z continues the north / more amped trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 couple snow maps from NCEP and LWX (they should in theory match) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: I think we can squeeze 5 inches out in our area with good rates. What do you think brother? Wonderdog, you see that 6z Euro QPF distribution? That is exactly where we, and the rest of PWC brotherhood, would want it. Blue blob west of us point east like a crayon rocket ship. We may not max out but we will be in the top tier for this event. Not often that happens. Less often its all snow. Feeling good today...for now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 So Ji and I received 5 inches from the November fluke storm. That is my bar for this storm. Although it will be MUCH colder this go around and will likely stick around for more than 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Long time observer, new to replying. Just wanted to thank you all for the constant flow of information! I had a question, I use Tropical Tidbits for my weather models. It's free so it doesn't have access to all the models a lot of you have access to. I'm wondering what sites you use because I'm willing to pay to get an upgrade in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wonderdog, you see that 6z Euro QPF distribution? That is exactly where we, and the rest of PWC brotherhood, would want it. Blue blob west of us point east like a crayon rocket ship. We may not max out but we will be in the top tier for this event. Not often that happens. Less often its all snow. Feeling good today...for now at least. I feel the same way down here in Stafford, feeling pretty good. 6z Euro was a pleasant surprise this morning. My bar is still 3" which seems really likely, would like to get to warning criteria though for a second time this year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wonderdog, you see that 6z Euro QPF distribution? That is exactly where we, and the rest of PWC brotherhood, would want it. Blue blob west of us point east like a crayon rocket ship. We may not max out but we will be in the top tier for this event. Not often that happens. Less often its all snow. Feeling good today...for now at least. Living in PWC for 25 years, rarely do I not worry about SLEET. East central PWC is the sleet capital of the world. During other all snow events, even at 300 feet asl, we get cruddy mangled flakes. It's not a good snow area. Never is this a max location. My concern is the over-running leaf drifts North into far Northern Virginia all of Maryland and into southern Pennsylvania and we miss out on the initial thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Even as is you will probably get 5" from 0.25" QPF. That's what happened last December in that little wave...I got 5" of the lightest fluffiest snow imaginable and the local coop reported like .24 qpf and I would be totally good with that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Living in PWC for 25 years, rarely do I not worry about SLEET. East central PWC is the sleet capital of the world. During other all snow events, even at 300 feet asl, we get cruddy mangled flakes. It's not a good snow area. Never is this a max location. My concern is the over-running leaf drifts North into far Northern Virginia all of Maryland and into southern Pennsylvania and we miss out on the initial thump. Perhaps but that would help psu and the northern crew. I am cool with that. It’s fun when the whole forum is snowing so the obs thread is like a house party. Happens rarely everyone is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's what happened last December in that little wave...I got 5" of the lightest fluffiest snow imaginable and the local coop reported like .24 qpf and I would be totally good with that again. I saw Kuchera ratio was pretty high out your way. Hoping for that as well! We all need a win - even if it is not the biggest event, we want to maximize on all we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM has higher heights out in front at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM’ing incoming lol. It shows 22 inches in Missouri though so yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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