Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The coastal is weak sauce. Not much from that but the waa piece is better. Looks like uniform agreement now with minimal differences in placement and amounts, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Bob... id actually prefer the WAA thump over relying on a coastal when the flow is so progressive. Right? That coastal has swing and a miss written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 That RGEM ensemble mean is worthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, jayyy said: Bob... id actually prefer the WAA thump over relying on a coastal when the flow is so progressive. Right? That coastal has swing and a miss written all over it. In the mid atlantic you take whatever you can get. 0z suite seems to have reached consensus on everything. One more day and it's chips fall mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 One thing worth noting and paying attention to is the euro upped the totals in IL and IN and even some in western OH. That's a short range shift there and something to watch downstream tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @Bob Chill and others Do you think ratios will like be 10:1 or maybe we sneak in a 12:1 SR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Be careful with the RGEM ensemble mean tonight because judging by the 00Z meteogram, a few outliers are driving the mean up. 00Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for Washington D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, yoda said: @Bob Chill and others Do you think ratios will like be 10:1 or maybe we sneak in a 12:1 SR? Kuchera suggests that we are seeing better then 10-1 for those roughly DC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Whoa..6z NAM. Just a tad better....compare to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Whoa..6z NAM. Just a tad better....compare to 0z What did I tell you yesterday? Once it started relaxing the ns that we would see a stronger low with better moisture flow. Knowing the nam we will now get some namings as it starts overamping the low. Eta: actually it's a little stronger with the ns. Improvements are probably due the adjustments to the trough. Hate trying to read these maps on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 WSWs up to the SW and S of DC. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 MDZ017-VAZ036>040-050-051-056-057-111645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.190112T1700Z-190113T1700Z/ St. Marys-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange- Culpeper-Spotsylvania-King George- 337 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Significant snow possible. Snowfall accumulations of 5 or more inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia, the Virginia Piedmont and extreme southern Maryland. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The steadiest snow is most likely late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel may be difficult due to snow covered and slippery roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 VAZ025>027-029-030-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-505-506-111645- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.190112T1500Z-190113T1700Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 337 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Significant snow possible. Snowfall accumulations of 5 or more inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of the Potomac Highlands in eastern West Virginia and Virginia as well as the central Shenandoah Valley. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday morning. The steadiest snow is most likely Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel may be difficult due to snow covered and slippery roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 And the latest AFD from LWX. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track through the Gulf Coast States Saturday into Saturday evening before transferring its energy to a coastal low off the North and South Carolina Coast by Sunday morning. The low will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday and high pressure will return for Sunday night. The closed upper- level low associated with this system will get sheared apart as it runs into a strong confluence zone, with shortwave energy and jet maxes passing through Saturday into Sunday. For Saturday...High pressure will remain over New England while the surface ridge axis extends down through the Mid-Atlantic. The low and mid-level flow will back to the southwest, causing relatively warmer and more moist air to overrun the surface cold air in plac. At the same time, shortwave energy well ahead of the upper-level low will pass through the area. The overrunning and shortwave energy should be enough to cause snow to break out over much of the area, first across the Potomac Highlands and Shenanodah Valley Saturday morning and across the rest of the area Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below freezing or drop below freezing after precipitation begins, so accumulating snow is likely. The same pattern will persist for Saturday night with low pressure transferring its energy to a coastal low as it passes by to the south. Overrunning and shortwave energy will continue to bring snow across the area with accumulation likely. The coastal low will will move out to sea Sunday and high pressure will wedge down from the north. This will cause snow to gradually end from north to south. Details are still a little uncertain at this time. Latest 00z guidance shows that the best chance for additional snow accumulation will be south of Interstate 66 and US 50. High pressure will continue to wedge into the area Sunday night. Most areas across the northern and central CWA should turn out dry, but a little light snow or flurries cannot be ruled out across central Virginia into southern Maryland where leftover moisture will be tough to scour out. As for accumulations, it does appear that snowfall rates will be on the light to perhaps occasionally moderate side. This is because the primary forcing mechanism appears to be overrunning. Strong frontogentical forcing appears that it will remain to our south, closer to the low. Therefore, latest thinking for most likely snow amounts are around 2-4 inches near the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas into northern and central Maryland as well as northern Virginia. Farther south and west, 4 to 8 inches are most likely at this time. The reason for the higher amounts is that moisture will be a bit deeper closer to the low and farther from the drier air associated with the high. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for these areas (Potomac Highlands into central Virginia and extreme southern Maryland). Most likely forecast do have amounts below temporal criteria for a warning, (5" in 12 hours and 7" in 24 hours), but still several inches of snow are likely at this point. Also, there is still some uncertainty with the low track Sunday morning. Some outlying guidance suggest that heavier snow is still possible across these areas. Therefore, a Watch has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 06Z 12km NAM was a nice improvement from 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The GFS looks slightly better at 48 Edit: 54 looks like better coastal snow gets into DC. Stronger low and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The GFS 10-1 snowmap bumps my backyard from 2-3" to 4-5". Northern and especially northeast Maryland still fringed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Rgem looks the best. That's 6-8 extrapolating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Called this last night as I went to bed... 6z will bump precip. No surprise here. Question is are the models adjusting? Or are they pulling one over on us and 12z brings us back to reality? if this trend continues, maybe we can eek out 5”+ for majority of the cwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Rgem looks the best. That's 6-8 extrapolating 6z GFS was better all around as mentioned. For NOVA. At least our light event is almost a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM is pretty nice. Looks like a 4 to 8 inch deal. I'll say this, it's been consistently on the heavier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM is pretty nice. Looks like a 4 to 8 inch deal. I'll say this, it's been consistently on the heavier side.Icon run is beautiful. Hangs on to primary longer and then new low off coast gives us more long duration light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6z fv3 best case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6z fv3 best case Not going to lie Ji, I’m sure you liked the 6z suite. Between the NAM, ICON, FV3, and even the GFS, every model moved the qpf max north and also beefed it up quite a bit. Were not seeing models deteriorate the precip shield into oblivion thanks to the shred factory. A little better look up top and better flow to keep the snow over us. Have noticed some fronto so that could give us some bands to work with as some have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Nice early morning trends for sure from the 06z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6z has been epic. Gfs fv3 icon rgem...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The orientation of the max stripe of snowfall seems to be shifting closer to, or over our CWA on the latest models, even the euro. That’s about all you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: 6z GFS was better all around as mentioned. For NOVA. At least our light event is almost a lock. I think we can squeeze 5 inches out in our area with good rates. What do you think brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 As models begin to converge and then fine tune as we are on the doorstep it sure does scream how we should view model runs a week out... That said it's pretty awesome how the models can see that an event may happen from so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 whoa...6z GGEM...wtf http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&type=PR&lang=en↦=na&map=qc&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I think we can squeeze 5 inches out in our area with good rates. What do you think brother? Yes I believe you are correct. Gas up the...you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: As models begin to converge and then fine tune as we are on the doorstep it sure does scream how we should view model runs a week out... That said it's pretty awesome how the models can see that an event may happen from so far out. I just went back and look at last weekends runs of the GFS. A bunch came pretty close to nailing it. Especially the 18z from Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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