stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I think we've hit our cap and the cake is baked. Unless that nrn stream moves north and stop beating us down, this is it. And I'm ok with that. 2-4 is the bar and I think we meet that. But it is irritated that this is the second time we got ****ed by the nrn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Maue on the GFS verification since the shutdown (with link to thread) https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1082410281714810881 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Not to be a deb but the icon sucks compared to its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Not sure how this is 2-4" for our area. Looks like 0-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS looks good so far at 24. Seems to be working to close off like a few days ago. heights are higher and its more consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Not sure how this is 2-4" for our area. Looks like 0-2. Really? Stop trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon is mostly waa snow so .2-.4 qpf through the area is pretty good. Similar to the 18z euro and identical in my yard Eta: icon is better in my yard by .1 so i'm hugging that until something better comes along Yep. Seems like we’ve settled on 2-4” for the area which is fantastic considering where we were a week ago. Most wrote off the whole month of January and now we’re looking at snow this weekend with multiple threat windows to track afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Not sure how this is 2-4" for our area. Looks like 0-2. Because your using a different and significantly more conservative map than the others. And even that map is 1-3 not 0-2. Don't be obtuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS is doing the same thing the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, high risk said: The GFS medium range scores did drop for sure right after the shutdown started, and a data issue related to the shutdown was suspected. But no such issue has been found. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Because your using a different and significantly more conservative map than the others. Don't be obtuse. He'll never break character. Only shows up to drop wet blankets. Looks like we're converging on .2-.4 qpf on average across guidance unless the nams are right. If the globals hold i'm tossing the nams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Thanks. Cwg had an entire article about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Gfs looks very close to the rgem at h48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The confluence is pushing down harder in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looks very close to the rgem at h48. We'll take hour 54 all day on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFS is doing the same thing the NAM did. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He'll never break character. Only shows up to drop wet blankets. Looks like we're converging on .2-.4 qpf on average across guidance unless the nams are right. If the globals hold i'm tossing the nams. Gfs seems more in line with the not nam camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looks very close to the rgem at h48. Was just gonna say the same thing. Other than the batty ass NAMs we have pretty good agreement with this one now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hour 60 continues to look tasty on tonights GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Not bad at hour 54. Like others have said, resembles more the RGEM than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hour 60 continues to look tasty on tonights GFSNot as good as 18z but not a shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: That is less than 2" for the vast majority of Maryland. If ratios are below 10-1 then yes. Qpf is .2 - .4. Look at that panel before snowmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: The confluence is pushing down harder in the NE Yes but the system is more consolidated. The confluence is not killing us here. The compressed flow from the system crashing the ridge in the west combined with the downstream blocking is what's killing the stj wave. The whole trough is being squeezed and de amplifying. If the confluence was the problem there wouldn't be light snow way up into PA from a weak waa wave. The confluence might even help enhance lift near us by increasing convergence on the northern fringes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Probably a pretty realistic expectation IMO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: That is less than 2" for the vast majority of Maryland. Here use this. It will be all snow... so most of MD get 2 inches at 10:1 which the ratio should be higher... everyone looks at the snowfall maps as if they are the only thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If ratios are below 10-1 then yes. Qpf is .2 - .4. Look at that panel before snowmaps I'm skeptical of high ratios, even if we're cold, especially for those of us who end up with light rates and probably less snow growth. There was a similar event in mid-February 2015 (before the good one) in which the ratios underperformed due to the lack of snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: Here use this. It will be all snow... so most of MD get 2 inches at 10:1 which the ratio should be higher... everyone looks at the snowfall maps as if they are the only thing. Ok sweet so I get 2.4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yes but the system is more consolidated. The confluence is not killing us here. The compressed flow from the system crashing the ridge in the west combined with the downstream blocking is what's killing the stj wave. The whole trough is being squeezed and de amplifying. If the confluence was the problem there wouldn't be light snow way up into PA from a weak waa wave. The confluence might even help enhance lift near us by increasing convergence on the northern fringes Blocking is killing us this year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Probably a pretty realistic expectation IMO: It's got my Parrs ridge Jack zone so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Here use this. It will be all snow... so most of MD get 2 inches at 10:1 which the ratio should be higher... everyone looks at the snowfall maps as if they are the only thing. So RIC is 10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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