clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FWIW the 12K NAM looks better. Snows for 9 hours instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: The NAM, woof. And I don't mean DT woofing. It snows for three hours LOL. Yes it’s dog sh**. I agree. I’d like to dismiss it as the NAM but somehow it seems to fit the idea of too much confluence and not enough oomph to get it north. Once again congrats RIC. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The 3k is just not good. Couple hours of snow. I hope it’s jist the NAM at range although that argument. Is getting thin as the clock ticks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes it’s dog sh**. I agree. I’d like to dismiss it as the NAM but somehow it seems to fit the idea of too much confluence and not enough oomph to get it north. Once again congrats RIC. It is what it is. 3k is an absolute dumpster fire holy sh*t. No way it’s right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z rgem maxed out at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Beachin said: 00z rgem maxed out at 48 Slight differences than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's actually rather crazy how much better the rgem is vs the nam. Rgem is actually looking even better then 18z did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Jan 2000 It’s the NAM Ji. You know that model is not reliable. Let’s wait until the entire 0z suite finishes before we panic prematurely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: It’s the NAM Ji. You know that model is not reliable. Let’s wait until the entire 0z suite finishes before we panic prematurely. He was making fun of what chuck said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Nice consensus at only 48 hours from the meso's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You guys have seen it 1000 times before.. it's going to trend toward the coastal being more dominant, but it may be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Add the ICON looking nothing like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z...icon and rgem off to good starts...nam...omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Guys NAM and GFS are absolutely compromised by this shutdown. My buddy at NWS confirmed this fact. He said to blend the Canadian and Ukie for the consensus. He’s thinking 3-6” area wide for Maryland and dc proper. 8” lollipops in central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice consensus at only 48 hours from the meso's I wonder if govt shutdown is screwing nam No idea. I know the nam can be screwy and way off but this is opposite of its typical error bias. Very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Icon definitely has a much better vort this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I mean the rgem looks like "big storm incoming" and the nam looks like a few snow showers. And we're getting closer to be using the nam at range excuse much longer. Of course once that one stops working the nam just sucks excuse is still valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Could convection (like those NC thunderstorms) rob the northern precipitation? I recall this happening before. Is that a possibility with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I mean the rgem looks like "big storm incoming" and the nam looks like a few snow showers. And we're getting closer to be using the nam at range excuse much longer. Of course once that one stops working the nam just sucks excuse is still valid. This crap never happens in a rainstorm. There should not be this kind of variance day before a storm. The gfs is still shifting from hot and cold every run. Nam is forecasting for a different planet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Guys NAM and GFS are absolutely compromised by this shutdown. My buddy at NWS confirmed this fact. He said to blend the Canadian and Ukie for the consensus. He’s thinking 3-6” area wide for Maryland and dc proper. 8” lollipops in central va Thanks. If the American guidance is truly suffering from lack of maintenance and data injestion problems they will only degrade more as this continues. If true it might be best to just start ignoring them to cut down on confusion and noise. It's not like we don't have enough non compromised guidance (rgem/ggem/ukmet/icon/euro). Frankly the verification scores on the gfs before all this started were only running marginally better than the "jv" models and behind the U.K./euro anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Snow map is nice for the ICON for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The differences in the 850 winds Saturday afternoon between the NAM and RGEM explain the differences in the precip shield. Remarkable disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I think the difference between the 3k NAM and the RGEM is how much snow reaches the ground. The 3k NAM looks pretty good at 48 hours if you look at composite reflectivity. This is a common difference between those two models. The RGEM is more likely than most other models to think snow will make it to the ground through dry air. Sometimes it's right, but often it's not. It will be interesting to see what the HRDPS says. It typically runs a little drier than the RGEM and did better with the virga in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Thanks. If the American guidance is truly suffering from lack of maintenance and data injestion problems they will only degrade more as this continues. If true it might be best to just start ignoring them to cut down on confusion and noise. It's not like we don't have enough non compromised guidance (rgem/ggem/ukmet/icon/euro). Frankly the verification scores on the gfs before all this started were only running marginally better than the "jv" models and behind the U.K./euro anyways. There are no data issues with the American models. The GFS medium range scores did slip during the end of December / early part of January, but they seem to be recovering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I mean the rgem looks like "big storm incoming" and the nam looks like a few snow showers. And we're getting closer to be using the nam at range excuse much longer. Of course once that one stops working the nam just sucks excuse is still valid. This crap never happens in a rainstorm. There should not be this kind of variance day before a storm. The gfs is still shifting from hot and cold every run. Nam is forecasting for a different planet... It does too happen in a rainstorm. I remember tracking some of those coastal rainstorms in the warm season and there were huge variances between runs and models on where the banding would set up and other details. We just don't care because it's rain. No one notices when they get .2 instead of .5 qpf in a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, high risk said: There are no data issues with the American models. The GFS medium range scores did slip during the end of December / early part of January, but they seem to be recovering. Thanks. You think some of the reports are just attempts to put public pressure to end the shutdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Icon is mostly waa snow so .2-.4 qpf through the area is pretty good. Similar to the 18z euro and identical in my yard Eta: icon is better in my yard by .1 so i'm hugging that until something better comes along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks. You think some of the reports are just attempts to put public pressure to end the shutdown? The GFS medium range scores did drop for sure right after the shutdown started, and a data issue related to the shutdown was suspected. But no such issue has been found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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