January 12th-13th event

[FallsLake]

For NW NC up into VA this looks wintery. For others like RDU to Charlotte to the up state, there's two camps of models:

Euro and GFS - We mostly rain. Euro did show some extra development on Monday but you really can't trust that.

CMC, UKMET, ICON, and NAVGEM - Good chances of an ice storm

Not sure about the JMA. The Ensembles look better than the operational (GFS & euro) but still not sure with them. 

So personally, I need to see the euro and GFS come back around. My confidence will stay low until they do. 

[Wurbus]

18 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Blue Ridge east of Cherokee gets it, and blanks Cherokee. Still we do not promise safe driving over mountains. 441 will be a mess at highest elevations.

 

 

Thanks. I'm planning to go 40. I assume 441 will be closed. I'll probably just check the road conditions and the radar Saturday morning and make a judgement call.

[griteater]

39 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Are you leaning more with what the Eiro is displaying over other guidance grit?

I like the idea of a solid mixed precip type event for the I-40 corridor from Marion/Morganton to Hickory to the Triad and north with GSP-CLT-RDU being on the wintry edge.  We've seen plenty of worse looking damming setups than this still produce wintry weather.  I think the wave, precip shield, and mid level warming will want to tick north of the current model blend over the next few days.

[griteater]

Well the new NAM is really wound up with the wave early on this run, but it is still cold enough for wintry precip from GSP to CLT to Triad and north at the end at hr84

[PackGrad05]

So what's the story with the precip lingering into Monday?  Is that some sort of deformation band?  Anything for Raleigh to get excited about?

[mackerel_sky]

20 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well the new NAM is really wound up with the wave early on this run, but it is still cold enough for wintry precip from GSP to CLT to Triad and north at the end at hr84

Doesn’t the NAM over amp storms, or is that wishcasting

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

So what's the story with the precip lingering into Monday?  Is that some sort of deformation band?  Anything for Raleigh to get excited about?

Passage of polar jet from what I’ve read. 

Could be flurries or snowshowers. Just don’t know yet  

 

 

[FallsLake]

18 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

So what's the story with the precip lingering into Monday?  Is that some sort of deformation band?  Anything for Raleigh to get excited about?

RAH states the possibility (Monday snow), but doesn't think it will be much. I would say overall there's nothing to be excited about right now (for us). It's definitely possible that changes, but just not probable.

 

RAH:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Fri/Fri night: The axis of the flat mid level ridge will shift eastward toward and over the Carolinas during this period, while at the surface, chilly high pressure extends in from the N. A stable and dry column with downslope 850 mb flow will allow for considerable sunshine Fri, but high clouds will increase from the W late Fri through Fri night with the onset of high level WAA ahead of the approaching central CONUS trough. Low level thicknesses are still projected to be around 25 m below normal, supporting highs in the 40s. Lows should be in the mid 20s to around 30 Fri night. Sat-Mon: Confidence is increasing that we`ll see some kind of wintry weather over the NW Piedmont, with a liquid-only event in our SE, but it`s the frequently problematic zone in between (including the Triangle) where greater uncertainty lies, where small forecast errors in the thermal structure (both horizontally and vertically) and precip amounts can yield large sensible weather differences. -Synoptic pattern: The mid level trough will deepen as it crosses the mid Miss Valley Sat/Sat night, before shearing and elongating WSW to ENE across the Mid Atlantic region and NC Sun/Mon as it connects with a polar stream shortwave. The trough will also receive energy ejecting from the storm system moving onshore over CA Fri night, with this vorticity sliding beneath the omega block over the Rockies. At the surface, polar high pressure centered over C Ontario will extend down through NC Sat, as a surface low deepens over AR/LA. With the high remaining anchored to our N by the aforementioned polar stream trough, the source of cold air into NC will be maintained. The primary low will move E and fill over E TN through Sun as the secondary low forms and strengthens along the common boundary just off the Carolina coast. The coastal low is expected to move quickly NE over the Atlantic Sun night/Mon, but the trailing trough extending back to the S Appalachians and passage of multiple perturbations within the sheared trough axis will keep conditions unsettled. -Precip chances: Much of the area will stay dry through Sat morning, with only light precip expected in the afternoon over far W and N sections in association with passage of an elevated warm front to our NW. Precip chances will then increase W to E, peaking very late Sat night into Sun morning as a batch of stronger DPVA and upper divergence (in the left exit region of an accelerating Deep South jet) passes through. Chances should then decrease with the departure of this stronger lift along with drying aloft (mainly over S NC) Sun afternoon, although persistent deeper moisture and a lingering mid- upper shear axis across VA and N NC will necessitate holding onto low chance pops mainly across the N late Sun through Mon. -Ptype/amounts: In this sort of Miller B pattern with a primary then secondary low and a persistent cold air source, it`s common to get broad corridors of mixed ptypes, and the low level thickness pattern for this event bears this out. Precip is expected to start out Sat as a light mix of mostly rain with a little sleet and snow as cloud bases lower and the low levels wet bulb, restricted largely to the Piedmont, with low QPF. The arrival of the stronger/deeper lift will fully saturate the profile coinciding with the heaviest precip late Sat night into Sun morning, when much of the northern Piedmont should become a wintry mix, ranging from mostly rain/freezing rain in the Triangle (where surface temps should waver either side of freezing before warming to solidly above freezing in the afternoon) to mostly snow with perhaps a little sleet/freezing rain in the Triad. Sun afternoon should see a change to much lighter precip as we dry aloft (-12C to -20C). We should then trend to more drizzle and freezing drizzle, although banding on the NW side of the coastal low could re-saturate the dendritic growth region such that a flip over to mostly snow may occur. Otherwise, with the surface low exiting and the reliance on more shallow, higher-level forcing for ascent (weaker DPVA and upper divergence), coverage and intensity of any precip Sun night/Mon should be low and mostly over the N. Amounts: The range of potential ice and/or snow accumulation is large at this range, but there is the potential for a few inches of snow with this event, with the greatest chance in the Triad over to Roxboro and lower to little accumulation in the Triangle. Storm total icing of a trace to a tenth of an inch is possible across the N/W Piedmont. Overall, though, based on the fast movement of the greatest lift and the incoming drying aloft, we are unlikely to see massive totals of either snow or ice with this event. However, everyone should check back often for the latest information as this storm draws closer. -Temps: Highs each day should be generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s, although Sun is likely to be the chilliest day, with some spots in the N and NW struggling just past the freezing mark. Lows both Sat night and Sun night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Tue-Wed: With the trough axis likely having pushed to our SE by Tue morning, we should see a recovery trend, with rising heights aloft and thicknesses heading back up closer to normals. But confidence in the details at this range is low, as the models take pockets of northern stream energy with varying speeds, amplitudes, and paths southeastward through the Mid Atlantic region. And the 00z/09 ECMWF also ejects a southern stream wave from the deep low off the CA coast Mon and takes it eastward toward NC through mid week. Given the low predictability, will keep the forecast dry and tranquil, with temps inching closer to normal by Wed. -GIH &&  

[eyewall]

5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

RAH states the possibility (Monday snow), but doesn't think it will be much. I would say overall there's nothing to be excited about right now (for us). It's definitely possible that changes, but just not probable.

 

RAH:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Fri/Fri night: The axis of the flat mid level ridge will shift eastward toward and over the Carolinas during this period, while at the surface, chilly high pressure extends in from the N. A stable and dry column with downslope 850 mb flow will allow for considerable sunshine Fri, but high clouds will increase from the W late Fri through Fri night with the onset of high level WAA ahead of the approaching central CONUS trough. Low level thicknesses are still projected to be around 25 m below normal, supporting highs in the 40s. Lows should be in the mid 20s to around 30 Fri night. Sat-Mon: Confidence is increasing that we`ll see some kind of wintry weather over the NW Piedmont, with a liquid-only event in our SE, but it`s the frequently problematic zone in between (including the Triangle) where greater uncertainty lies, where small forecast errors in the thermal structure (both horizontally and vertically) and precip amounts can yield large sensible weather differences. -Synoptic pattern: The mid level trough will deepen as it crosses the mid Miss Valley Sat/Sat night, before shearing and elongating WSW to ENE across the Mid Atlantic region and NC Sun/Mon as it connects with a polar stream shortwave. The trough will also receive energy ejecting from the storm system moving onshore over CA Fri night, with this vorticity sliding beneath the omega block over the Rockies. At the surface, polar high pressure centered over C Ontario will extend down through NC Sat, as a surface low deepens over AR/LA. With the high remaining anchored to our N by the aforementioned polar stream trough, the source of cold air into NC will be maintained. The primary low will move E and fill over E TN through Sun as the secondary low forms and strengthens along the common boundary just off the Carolina coast. The coastal low is expected to move quickly NE over the Atlantic Sun night/Mon, but the trailing trough extending back to the S Appalachians and passage of multiple perturbations within the sheared trough axis will keep conditions unsettled. -Precip chances: Much of the area will stay dry through Sat morning, with only light precip expected in the afternoon over far W and N sections in association with passage of an elevated warm front to our NW. Precip chances will then increase W to E, peaking very late Sat night into Sun morning as a batch of stronger DPVA and upper divergence (in the left exit region of an accelerating Deep South jet) passes through. Chances should then decrease with the departure of this stronger lift along with drying aloft (mainly over S NC) Sun afternoon, although persistent deeper moisture and a lingering mid- upper shear axis across VA and N NC will necessitate holding onto low chance pops mainly across the N late Sun through Mon. -Ptype/amounts: In this sort of Miller B pattern with a primary then secondary low and a persistent cold air source, it`s common to get broad corridors of mixed ptypes, and the low level thickness pattern for this event bears this out. Precip is expected to start out Sat as a light mix of mostly rain with a little sleet and snow as cloud bases lower and the low levels wet bulb, restricted largely to the Piedmont, with low QPF. The arrival of the stronger/deeper lift will fully saturate the profile coinciding with the heaviest precip late Sat night into Sun morning, when much of the northern Piedmont should become a wintry mix, ranging from mostly rain/freezing rain in the Triangle (where surface temps should waver either side of freezing before warming to solidly above freezing in the afternoon) to mostly snow with perhaps a little sleet/freezing rain in the Triad. Sun afternoon should see a change to much lighter precip as we dry aloft (-12C to -20C). We should then trend to more drizzle and freezing drizzle, although banding on the NW side of the coastal low could re-saturate the dendritic growth region such that a flip over to mostly snow may occur. Otherwise, with the surface low exiting and the reliance on more shallow, higher-level forcing for ascent (weaker DPVA and upper divergence), coverage and intensity of any precip Sun night/Mon should be low and mostly over the N. Amounts: The range of potential ice and/or snow accumulation is large at this range, but there is the potential for a few inches of snow with this event, with the greatest chance in the Triad over to Roxboro and lower to little accumulation in the Triangle. Storm total icing of a trace to a tenth of an inch is possible across the N/W Piedmont. Overall, though, based on the fast movement of the greatest lift and the incoming drying aloft, we are unlikely to see massive totals of either snow or ice with this event. However, everyone should check back often for the latest information as this storm draws closer. -Temps: Highs each day should be generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s, although Sun is likely to be the chilliest day, with some spots in the N and NW struggling just past the freezing mark. Lows both Sat night and Sun night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Tue-Wed: With the trough axis likely having pushed to our SE by Tue morning, we should see a recovery trend, with rising heights aloft and thicknesses heading back up closer to normals. But confidence in the details at this range is low, as the models take pockets of northern stream energy with varying speeds, amplitudes, and paths southeastward through the Mid Atlantic region. And the 00z/09 ECMWF also ejects a southern stream wave from the deep low off the CA coast Mon and takes it eastward toward NC through mid week. Given the low predictability, will keep the forecast dry and tranquil, with temps inching closer to normal by Wed. -GIH &&  

The failboat is already here on this one for RDU. See you in the sanitarium. This will be a mountains/NW Piedmont event at best.

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

The failboat is already here on this one for RDU. See you in the sanitarium. This will be a mountains/NW Piedmont event at best.

Agree 100%.  I would not count on the backend snows out of this one.

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

The failboat is already here on this one for RDU. See you in the sanitarium. This will be a mountains/NW Piedmont event at best.

Yep time to head to the other room. Even the 18z ICON is coming in more north. 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Agree 100%.  I would not count on the backend snows out of this one.

NEVER I repeat NEVER depend on backend snows in central NC. That is the dreaded cold chasing the moisture. The only time that works out is when you already grab some accumulation in the WAA phase.

[KyleEverett]

I'm expecting more rain and 33 degrees as is typical just south of Charlotte.

[griteater]

16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Doesn’t the NAM over amp storms, or is that wishcasting

It can, but the globals tend to trend that way closer to go time so 

[FallsLake]

So the 18z ICON is a nice hit for central VA to the MA. It looks like there would still be some big ice totals in the western foothills and NW Piedmont.  

Edit: It does create some backside snow (Monday) as talked about...

[jjwxman]

11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So the 18z ICON is a nice hit for central VA to the MA. It looks like there would still be some big ice totals in the western foothills and NW Piedmont.  

Edit: It does create some backside snow (Monday) as talked about...

Yea the Icon doesn't output IP,ZR. If you look at the surface temp maps, favored CAD areas are below freezing during the event.  ICON also has the secondary wave of low pressure on Monday.

[BIG FROSTY]

Game on per RNK  light snow but no accumulations? 

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy
with a slight chance of light snow after midnight. Lows in the
upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 20 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the morning, then
light snow likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in
the upper 20s. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow. Rain likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid
30s. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely, mainly in the
evening. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of snow
60 percent. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning,
then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s.
Chance of snow 40 percent. 

[BornAgain13]

Yeah, I hate to say it but this one is trending in the wrong direction if you want snow/Ice

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah, I hate to say it but this one is trending in the wrong direction if you want snow/Ice

Too early to give up in VA imo.  Still 3 days to go.  Still time for trends to change

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah, I hate to say it but this one is trending in the wrong direction if you want snow/Ice

Still time to change and give us the goods. 

Cold and Snow that is. 

[BullCityWx]

I'm supposed to be upset at this?

[olafminesaw]

Eeek

[Orangeburgwx]

I want to cry so bad cause of that last ICON... So close on the 19-20th yet so far

[Cold Rain]

When you’re having to rely on the ICON, the CMC, and backside snow, you are in sad shape.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Saturday ... A chance of snow before 3pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of sleet after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night ...  Snow and sleet likely before 9pm, then sleet likely between 9pm and midnight, then rain or freezing rain after midnight. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday ... Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of rain between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night ... A chance of rain and snow showers before 9pm, then a chance of snow showers between 9pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%

 

I still have frozen precip in my latest NWS point and click forecast.

[JoshM]

52 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

When you’re having to rely on the ICON, the CMC, and backside snow, you are in sad shape.

I'm still all in!

[PackGrad05]

Oh well!  Can't get every system!

Looks like our best hope in NC is with the Monday system.  European ensembles are way more aggressive with this one than the American.

[mackerel_sky]

15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Oh well!  Can't get any system!

Looks like our best hope in NC is with the Monday system.  European ensembles are way more aggressive with this one than the American.

Fixed 

[Waiting on snow]

Boy this thread died quickly!!

[DC2Winston]

Got very quiet in here. I remember when I was younger living in northern VA...when St. Louis got snow, DC and north was in the game down river. South of RIC...no bueno. Next.