Cheers for Western Ears Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but the NAM is showing the high moving into a favorable position for a strong CAD. However, it does seem to be lacking in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. Concerned as in it looks awfully north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. I'm only concerned with what I'm going to eat for lunch, but what do you mean by concern? The 12z run was a little flatter with the wave. It has NE GA around Lake Lanier dropping to 32 deg at the end of its run at hr84 as precip moves in (Saturday at 7PM). It doesn't have a big, long plume of moisture across the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The NAM is definitely lacking moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The NAM is definitely lacking moisture... 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but the NAM is showing the high moving into a favorable position for a strong CAD. However, it does seem to be lacking in QPF. Yea, sorry I wasn't clear to what I was referring to. I was talking about both the fact that it seemed well north and seemed rather low on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The 12z NAM did drop south (some) from its 6z run (which was a little better then the 0z). **we still have more model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, griteater said: I'm only concerned with what I'm going to eat for lunch, but what do you mean by concern? The 12z run was a little flatter with the wave. It has NE GA around Lake Lanier dropping to 32 deg at the end of its run at hr84 as precip moves in (Saturday at 7PM). It doesn't have a big, long plume of moisture across the south though. Yea sorry I should have been more specific as to what I meant. I meant the fact that the model seemed to be rather low on moisture compared to the other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Here's the CMC freezing rain from last night (0z, hr 120): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The NAM is definitely lacking moisture... It was lacking with precip at range with the early Dec storm as well, so it could very well ramp up with moisture. Having said that, this is certainly a lighter precip setup compared to that one. As a comparison, the latest EPS mean has 0.50 to 0.75 for the area from Asheville to Charlotte for this one...the early Dec storm had 2.0 to 2.5 on the EPS Mean prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12z ICON drops about 0.5" of ice around RDU/IGX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 21 minutes ago, griteater said: It was lacking with precip at range with the early Dec storm as well, so it could very well ramp up with moisture. Having said that, this is certainly a lighter precip setup compared to that one. As a comparison, the latest EPS mean has 0.50 to 0.75 for the area from Asheville to Charlotte for this one...the early Dec storm had 2.0 to 2.5 on the EPS Mean prior to the storm. How did the December storm verify in regard to precip, does anybody know? I know that thing was modeled juiced up, but I swear I only got about 6 hours of moderate precip. Started about 2 in the morning and by 8 am it turned to a light sleet. I doubt I got anywhere close to 2 inches qpf. Just to highlight this event as modeled could be even lighter come verification...seems like it usually is each winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The models are really struggling to figure out what to do with our storm wave Friday evening just east of the Rockies. The shortwave that topples the western U.S. ridge in the split flow and works down into the southern plains either shears out the southern wave (in which case the wave is weaker and wants to trek more west to east - a colder solution) or cleanly falls into it (in which case the phasing wave is stronger and climbs north a bit - a warmer solution that puts more pressure on the cold air dam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I am unsure where the battle lines will setup regarding Rain/ZR/Sleet/Snow in NC, but the ZR band with this one is going to be legit. I was skeptical of what the models were showing with ZR back in early December as the setup didnt' really favor ZR. This one definitely does. Pretty classic HP configuration is continuing to show up on the models. There will likely be freezing rain warnings sent out on this one at some point Fri/Sat for parts of NC. Whether that features Charlotte/Raleigh, it's too early to say. That said, this one has some of the critical pieces we look for when forecasting an Icestorm in the metro areas of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: How did the December storm verify in regard to precip, does anybody know? I know that thing was modeled juiced up, but I swear I only got about 6 hours of moderate precip. Started about 2 in the morning and by 8 am it turned to a light sleet. I doubt I got anywhere close to 2 inches qpf. Just to highlight this event as modeled could be even lighter come verification...seems like it usually is each winter storm. Oh it was juiced well over 1.0 qpf as advertised. The ratios where like 5 to 1 when we where getting snow, then had a lot of sleet. It qpf, verified stellar. And yes the NAM did hiccup several cycles on the qpf as we started working our way in from 84 hrs. But Grit hit the nail on head and everything I've seen suggest .50-1.0 as good consensus for qpf forecast as of right now. That's nothing to sneeze at in the winter. But after the December Snowapocolypse some experienced, we've been shock & awed lol. So its like even if we could squeeze out 3-6 inches of snow this weekend, a lot of posters would be like ok. When in years past we would have over 100 folks on here chasing this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The LP looks a little south on the 12z gfs compared to 6z, but not huge differences from my untrained eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I am unsure where the battle lines will setup regarding Rain/ZR/Sleet/Snow in NC, but the ZR band with this one is going to be legit. I was skeptical of what the models were showing with ZR back in early December as the setup didnt' really favor ZR. This one definitely does. Pretty classic HP configuration is continuing to show up on the models. There will likely be freezing rain warnings sent out on this one at some point Fri/Sat for parts of NC. Whether that features Charlotte/Raleigh, it's too early to say. That said, this one has some of the critical pieces we look for when forecasting an Icestorm in the metro areas of NC. You need to read less and post more...and hire a puppy sitter The 12z Canadian has bumped south this run with precip and mid level temps, but similar with sfc temps and it has good precip coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12z GFS hammers central and southern VA with big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, griteater said: You need to read less and post more...and hire a puppy sitter The 12z Canadian has bumped south this run with precip and mid level temps, but similar with sfc temps and it has good precip coverage lol i wish. I am working from home today and he is driving me cray..... GFS looks like a good thump for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Correction, 12z GFS & CMC both hammer central and southern VA with big snows... looks like more qpf this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The 12z CMC looks very close to its last run. Specifically for RDU has about the same impacts. A little more snow for the NW NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Correction, 12z GFS & CMC both hammer central and southern VA with big snows... looks like more qpf this time. Not only VA but WNC. Boone gets 17 inches this run per GFS. I like the trends for WNC. More qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Not only VA but WNC. Boone gets 17 inches this run per GFS. I like the trends for WNC. More qpf. That's the key to.... will this thing trend wetter? Would make a big difference in ice or snow quantity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 With the GFS and CMC, what is the ice/sleet potential looking like for central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 New UKMet on the early maps: Sfc low is in southern Bama at 96, then well off NC at 120. The 500mb wave is in the sheared out camp...more of a west to east trek...so, it doesn't look like the storm bumped north this run. CAD setup looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, griteater said: New UKMet on the early maps: Sfc low is in southern Bama at 96, then well off NC at 120. The 500mb wave is in the sheared out camp...more of a west to east trek...so, it doesn't look like the storm bumped north this run. CAD setup looks fine. Sounds good for us in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: With the GFS and CMC, what is the ice/sleet potential looking like for central NC? Pivotal hasn't updated on freezing rain yet, but just looking at the Tropical Tidbits map it's about the same as 0z (bad ice storm for us). The 12z GFS is still mostly rain for the RDU folks but it wouldn't take much of a south shift to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 CMC is actually worse (or good if you like ice). 12z CMC freezing rain at hr 102): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: CMC is actually worse (or good if you like ice). 12z CMC freezing rain at hr 102): I'll pass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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