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January 12th-13th event


Orangeburgwx

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My first initial thoughts are for mby. Mulch,roof, car windows get whitened then hours of freezing rain. .50 neighborhood. Pray Im wrong and will fine tune. Up toward Big Frosty maybe get grass blades covered, compact with sleet . 30 freezing rain.  Boone 6+ with sleet and frzng rain minimum end as light snow.

 

Power companies on standby.

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

CMC wallops mby with 10"+ and GFS says have 1" of snow and a lot of ICE.

Been hanging out in the Mid Atlantic forum for days on this one. I’ll tell you what GGEM led the way for our area with the 12/9/18 event so I wouldn’t listen to anyone that thinks it’s garbage or is writing it off. Has been fairly consistent in the evolution with this one imo. 

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5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Been hanging out in the Mid Atlantic forum for days on this one. I’ll tell you what GGEM led the way for our area with the 12/9/18 event so I wouldn’t listen to anyone that thinks it’s garbage or is writing it off. Has been fairly consistent in the evolution with this one imo. 

Yeah, That run was nice. But I'm sticking with EURO/EPS/GEFS... not sure if it gets as far north as the GFS suggests with that High Pressure. 

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

Lol, hell score most no doubt. But we are dealing with a sfc low track right under us, almost on top , not to mention transfering, miller b. So it will screw up thermals unless we can get a budge south.

Well, I am east of RDU, so I expect the good old fashioned cold rain.  Strength of that high pressure might be just enough for some hijinx up your way.

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30 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@griteater what's your take on the 0z UK?

 

25 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Ukie is futher south a notch then am guidance and not as amped. Only is like 1012mb off nc coast heading ots on 24hr panel. Way it appears to me. Gfs new and old are futherest north with slp track, the can, then ukie maybe tick futher south than canadian. 24 hr panels, so grain of salt

Looking at a few of the recent UKMet runs, it seems to have been quite consistent with its depiction.  It's not as 'clean' with the storm wave as it cranks up out west and so it gets strung out a bit as it heads east into the Miss Valley.  Comparing the last 2 runs at the sfc, it was a little stronger with the sfc low this run and the damming high and associated damming signature east of the mtns wasn't quite as strong...in contrast, it's more of a west to east slider so that limits some warming.  Bottom line, there is a lot of 'noise' when looking at each model and the model runs even though we have the big picture in view.

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