BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 What a dud! People should be banned from posting that CMC model, it’s the new DGEXLol Sure I don’t believe an 1.5 or even a 1 of ice anywhere!!! but it has been consistent on being a ice storm in CAD areas. Let’s see what happens then we toss or if it’s close to right “do we toss the other short range models”? Hope you get in on a mix and I think you will. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Huge storm. Can't decide if it is shaped more like a tornado or an ostrich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said: Lol Sure I don’t believe an 1.5 or even a 1 of ice anywhere!!! but it has been consistent on being a ice storm in CAD areas. Let’s see what happens then we toss or if it’s close to right “do we toss the other short range models”? Hope you get in on a mix and I think you will. . Wis we were just getting snow. Don’t care for ice. J/B is all pumped up about winter coming. Hope he’s right again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Wis we were just getting snow. Don’t care for ice. Ice is only good in sweet tea and water. J/B is all pumped up about winter coming. Hope he’s right again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 55 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Totally agree. Tracking ice is like some funny analogy that I can’t think of. My sister lives in Fredericksburg VA and can’t wait for all the hourly pictures she’ll gloat with. Think that area jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 29/18. Oh to have some moisture right now. Radar looks great out to our west, clouds should start rolling in soon. One more big cycle of short range models at 0z and 6z, then its nowcast. Practice up boys. Cause holy cow at the LR storms coming starting 20th. The ones that follow up look like its snow or nada. 20th looks like ice , rain, ,backside snows. Possibly cold rain. But it ushers in a major pattern change at 5h that truly has holy grail look to it , right in the dead of winter. Great times are right around the corner if you like vodka cold and winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Wis we were just getting snow. Don’t care for ice. J/B is all pumped up about winter coming. Hope he’s right for once!? FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 29/18. Oh to have some moisture right now. Radar looks great out to our west, clouds should start rolling in soon. One more big cycle of short range models at 0z and 6z, then its nowcast. Practice up boys. Cause holy cow at the LR storms coming starting 20th. The ones that follow up look like its snow or nada. 20th looks like ice , rain, ,backside snows. Possibly cold rain. But it ushers in a major pattern change at 5h that truly has holy grail look to it , right in the dead of winter. Great times are right around the corner if you like vodka cold and winter precip. I’d be shocked if we don’t score at least once if not more between the 20th and the first couple weeks of February if we can just get the storm track to suppress a bit. Still way too much tracking right through the interior Southeast instead of down along the gulf in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 0z NAM a tad colder, FWIW, ZR line pretty much ~ I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The red line^ represents a rough idea of what RAH thought would be Warning criteria as of 3pm today. If that holds, we'll likely see Warnings issued tomorrow morning for Forysth, Davidson, Guilford, Alamance, and Orange. WWA's would likely be Randolph, Chatham, and Durham. If this trends colder, Wake might get a WWA. But based on their current point and click forecasts in the N/NW part of the county, this would be unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lettucesnow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Latest RAH discussion states that the GFS has been verifying much better than the NAM in regards to temperatures as the NAM was too cold, and the GFS was closer with the strength of the 700mb cyclone over the southern plains.. Which doesn't really bode well for the NAM's colder forecast here in the Carolinas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Lettucesnow said: Latest RAH discussion states that the GFS has been verifying much better than the NAM in regards to temperatures as the NAM was too cold, and the GFS was closer with the strength of the 700mb cyclone over the southern plains.. Which doesn't really bode well for the NAM's colder forecast here in the Carolinas.. If thats the case the 18z gfs has freezing rain further east in NC than the NAM. Gfs is lighter qpf, but also nam is matching better in TN with radar. Snow knocking on door Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The NAM has been showing a weaker and weaker wedge the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, Lettucesnow said: Latest RAH discussion states that the GFS has been verifying much better than the NAM in regards to temperatures as the NAM was too cold, and the GFS was closer with the strength of the 700mb cyclone over the southern plains.. Which doesn't really bode well for the NAM's colder forecast here in the Carolinas.. IMO that’s a good thing. Unless the NAM version meant snow. Which I don’t think is possible here in Triad, given the setup. So if it’s ice or rain, give me the rain plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: IMO that’s a good thing. Unless the NAM version meant snow. Which I don’t think is possible here in Triad, given the setup. So if it’s ice or rain, give me the rain plz. Afraid not on the rain. Pretty classic ice set up here in the Triad. The question is how much sleet vs. zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 That RAH discussion about NAM/GFS temp comparisons was for tonight. They haven't updated for the 'short term' (which includes the time period for this storm) since 3pm-ish. I mean, it could still mean they are leaning towards the GFS temps for this storm. But I don't think we can assume that yet until the short term discussion is updated later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, CentralNC said: Afraid not on the rain. Pretty classic ice set up here in the Triad. The question is how much sleet vs. zr. Yes, it's pretty much a lock in the Triad. You will get frozen/freezing precip. I would not rule out sleet as the predominant P-type at least during the first half of the storm. As is the case so many times it comes down to North of 85 for anything wintry. There could be exceptions with this one but that's usually the rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Afraid not on the rain. Pretty classic ice set up here in the Triad. The question is how much sleet vs. zr. #prayforsleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 While do I feel like we are standing on an active railway with a blindfold and headphones on? The uncertainty is large with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, kvegas-wx said: While do I feel like we are standing on an active railway with a blindfold and headphones on? The uncertainty is large with this one! Can't remember a winter storm that was this close and still not know how it was going to play out. Usually we have a pretty good idea of how thing were going by now. This one will come down to surface temps and wet-bulbs tomorrow at the onset. very tricky for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Can't remember a winter storm that was this close and still not know how it was going to play out. Usually we have a pretty good idea of how thing were going by now. This one will come down to surface temps and wet-bulbs tomorrow at the onset. very tricky for some.Sitting at 34.9/27.1High clouds in place... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Sitting at 34.9/27.1 High clouds in place... . 30.6/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 It’s currently 28/15 south of Greensboro in Northern Randolph County. High clouds just beginning to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: #prayforsleet 11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: While do I feel like we are standing on an active railway with a blindfold and headphones on? The uncertainty is large with this one! 7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Can't remember a winter storm that was this close and still not know how it was going to play out. Usually we have a pretty good idea of how thing were going by now. This one will come down to surface temps and wet-bulbs tomorrow at the onset. very tricky for some. 5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Sitting at 34.9/27.1 High clouds in place... . If I was in the Triad or foothills, I'd #prayforsleet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 32/24 and mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 33.7/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 29/22 Cary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just hit the freezing mark. Forecast low is 31. No chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Just hit the freezing mark. Forecast low is 31. No chance Same here WarmNose... What are the odds of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Also started the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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