jjwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Nowhere close to what’s forecast in upstate and N GA. Which is why this is still so hard to give any credence to. I should have said in the Western Piedmont of NC... my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used. i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. here it is with 2 degree intervals. Yes sir! Old timers! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 For RDU folks this will be close. As always we're right on (or near) the line of getting just rain or a significant winter event. Might come down to monitoring temps and precip timing during the day tomorrow. I think right now the foothills, parts of the southeast Piedmont, NW Piedmont, into VA are looking solid for at least winter storm criteria conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Interesting from Judah Cohen!! I feel like the Canadian regional model is a solid model and should be considered seriously more so than their global model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Interesting from Judah Cohen!! I feel like the Canadian regional model is a solid model and should be considered seriously more so than their global model. . I hope the Maple Leaf has it right this time. Barking the loudest . I can tell you the Canadian suite owns the Am suite of models when it comes to CAD. Especially the 2 global s. The GFS is as helpful as a commode without water in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 New Euro (12z) is basically the same as the earlier loop I posted for precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 18 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Interesting from Judah Cohen!! I feel like the Canadian regional model is a solid model and should be considered seriously more so than their global model. . Can you show the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Can you show the model? This was it here - Canadian RGEM (now called RDPS) https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51897-january-12th-13th-event/?do=findComment&comment=5103160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: 1 hour ago, Lookout said: yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used. i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. here it is with 2 degree intervals. 6 1 hour ago, Lookout said: yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used. i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. here it is with 2 degree intervals. 6 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: Yes sir! Old timers! . 2 OK, with the quotes that makes three times. Now what do you want, I was taking a nap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Heres the 12Z RDPS. Only goes out 48 Hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Winter Storm Watch issued by GSP just to my W and SW in Western Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Heres the 12Z RDPS. Only goes out 48 Hours: That is a lot of ice. There is a huge disconnect right now with tomorrow. Gap mentioned the high wasn’t too strong but the last time I checked it looked pretty decent. It’s not all that cold (upper 40s) but the dew point is 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yeah, I hit 50 today. Airmass not cold enough for anything but rain down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NWS, at least in Atlanta and GSP, clearly banking on the short range models overdoing the surface cold. Hopefully they’re right, or this will be an embarrassing bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibby Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looks like totals are lower on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 For NWS GSP's service area: Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 302 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 ...A HEAVY WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... .A low pressure system moving from the Mississippi River Valley to the southern Appalachians Saturday night will spread wintry precipitation across much of western North Carolina Sunday night into Sunday. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will develop with the heaviest accumulations of sleet and freezing rain possibly making conditions treacherous for the latter half of the weekend. NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-501>510-120500- /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.190112T2300Z-190114T0000Z/ Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba- Rowan-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains- Eastern Polk- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring 302 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations may range from about an inch in the southern part of the Watch area to 2 to 3 inches along the far northern Blue Ridge mountains. Ice accumulations could approach one quarter inch in many areas. * WHERE...Western North Carolina mountain locations along and east of the central and northern Blue Ridge mountains, the adjacent North Carolina foothills, and the northwest piedmont of western North Carolina. * WHEN...Light wintry precipitation may develop on Saturday, but with accumulations occurring primarily from Saturday evening through Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the snow, sleet, and ice. Travel could become treacherous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 From NWS GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Gibby said: Looks like totals are lower on the 18z NAM I think they actually ticked up along and north of I-85. I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH put Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford in the Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Gibby said: Looks like totals are lower on the 18z NAM Multiple shortrange for awhile now still put out over or around 0.50 ZR for my area just west of Hickory(0.68 on that map). If its anything like the event in November it will catch a lot of people by surprise in my parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, jjwxman said: I think they actually ticked up along and north of I-85. I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH put Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford in the Winter Storm Watch. Nice call .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM Friday... Overview: Confidence is increasing that we`ll see impactful icing along with some snow/sleet accumulation across the Triad and the VA border counties, occurring primarily Sat evening through the overnight. Will issue a winter storm watch from the Triad NE across the central VA border areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 If this thing overperforms the triad region is doomed. .75 of ZR, after all the tree damage over the last 90 days or so would be lights out for a week. My neighborhood alone has trees already overhanging roadways that desperately need to be cut by the county. I truly hope this comes in dry like the GFS was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, kvegas-wx said: If this thing overperforms the triad region is doomed. .75 of ZR, after all the tree damage over the last 90 days or so would be lights out for a week. My neighborhood alone has trees already overhanging roadways that desperately need to be cut by the county. I truly hope this comes in dry like the GFS was showing. Not too worried where I am IMBY. Sleet saves me virtually every time with the thickness of this cold air. Quick hitter too. Along I85 all bets are off however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @SteveVa Virginia Beach public works and VDOT we’re out brining the roads in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake this morning. I can’t speak for Suffolk, Norfolk, or the cities on the Peninsula (Hampton , Newport News, or Williamsburg) but it looks like they think they’re getting some wintry weather this weekend. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Ummm.. the latest RGEM on the ICE = lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Ummm.. the latest RGEM on the ICE = lights out. Yes, the RGEM certainly looks menacing. I think it's overdone but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM was not good for the last event iirc. I seem to remember it (and the CMC before the RGEM got into range) having a ton of ice that never verified. It seems to do better in the NE I think whereas the NAM seems to have a better handle on our region, at least in the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, I hit 50 today. Airmass not cold enough for anything but rain down here! 38 here. Havent cracked 40 in 2 days now. Yesterday high was midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Has anyone heard or received any reports on how the storm is doing out west so far? Under or over performing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 What a dud! People should be banned from posting that CMC model, it’s the new DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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