Looking to the skies Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I don't know how significant or any significance -- as far as the CAD but the low to my East this morning in NE Alabama was 19. The cold might be more entrenched than 1st thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 hours ago, Jonathan said: Thanks for the reply! (And wait a sec, are you with NWS Blacksburg?!) I may have to chase to Roanoke or Vinton for this one! Also, the EURO is in and it's bone dry. Cuts a lot of totals almost in half. 3k NAM is dry, 0z GFS was dry, now 0z EURO is dry. Lot of local news outlets with some big 5-10" and 6-12" numbers. I'm afraid they may be in trouble. Hate these "dropping out of the Rockies" systems. Rather have the bowling ball coming out of Baja and into the Gulf. Yes I am. The 'Burg is great. Roanoke and north is a pretty good bet at all snow. The 00Z GEFS spaghetti p-type plot showed mostly snow for ROA, with a very small chance (less the 25%) of mixing through the early morning hours on Sunday. Models have indeed trended a bit drier, so I think anything over 6" is unlikely at this point. The main show of precip will be from the WAA overunning.. once the transfer occurs, we'll likely begin to shutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 What a mess of a forecast here in Greensboro Saturday A slight chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with sleet after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. High near 34. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Night A chance of rain before 10pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 10pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, sarcean said: What a mess of a forecast here in Greensboro Saturday A slight chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with sleet after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. High near 34. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Night A chance of rain before 10pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 10pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Lol that seems ridiculously confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Brining like crazy here in Forsyth County (winston). I think either way this goes there will be some very slick roads on Sunday. Grounds temps will be very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said: I don't know how significant or any significance -- as far as the CAD but the low to my East this morning in NE Alabama was 19. The cold might be more entrenched than 1st thought? The bottom dropped out here too, low of 22....even colder than surrounding areas. This is As much as 10 degrees colder than some guidance...but these calm clear nights with low dewpoints it's not unusual to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Lookout said: The bottom dropped out here too, low of 22....even colder than surrounding areas. This is As much as 10 degrees colder than some guidance...but these calm clear nights with low dewpoints it's not unusual to see. I bottomed at 26 IMBY, 3 degrees colder than what was forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z NAM Total Accumulated Freezing rain. I'm not aware of any WFO's or media outlooks mentioning the possibility of an Ice Storm. Just Social Media chatter at this point. Let's see what the other 12z data shows. I know the NAM does well with temp profiles, but I'm not sure about precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The 12z NAM 3Km is more believable and more inline with local forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, jjwxman said: 12z NAM Total Accumulated Freezing rain. I'm not aware of any WFO's or media outlooks mentioning the possibility of an Ice Storm. Just Social Media chatter at this point. Let's see what the other 12z data shows. I know the NAM does well with temp profiles, but I'm not sure about precip rates. GSP says that warning criteria could be reached, too much uncertainty at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Some of the numbers the GGEM is spitting out for the Triad area are downright scary. .6-.8” of ice. I mean even half of that would be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The 12z NAM 3Km is more believable and more inline with local forecasts. That’s pretty deep into SC. Seems overdone. CMC and NAM seem on an island of their own!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: GSP says that warning criteria could be reached, too much uncertainty at this point The 12z RGEM is absolutely ridiculous on the ice. Major Ice Storm in the CAD favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, jjwxman said: 12z NAM Total Accumulated Freezing rain. I'm not aware of any WFO's or media outlooks mentioning the possibility of an Ice Storm. Just Social Media chatter at this point. Let's see what the other 12z data shows. I know the NAM does well with temp profiles, but I'm not sure about precip rates. I think much of these is going to go to getting a very dry column moistened up so yes likely overdone on actual ice accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That’s pretty deep into SC. Seems overdone. CMC and NAM seem on an island of their own!? Just the opposite actually. I think temps get to below freezing over a pretty large area assuming temps don't get too warm saturday. But Here is the 3km nam's 925mb to 975mb temps... This is a pretty classic temp profile and look for ice for north ga/upstate...and even this might be a little underdone since wetbulbs at these levels start off around -3c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, CentralNC said: I think much of these is going to go to getting a very dry column moistened up so yes likely overdone on actual ice accums The models take virga into account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: The models take virga into account True, but I think you still cut those totals in half. Still a significant system and will catch some of guard for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Sleet will be the only thing that may save the CAD areas from a devastating ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Lookout said: Just the opposite actually. I think temps get to below freezing over a pretty large area assuming temps don't get too warm saturday. But Here is the 3km nam's 925mb to 975mb temps... This is a pretty classic temp profile and look for ice for north ga/upstate...and even this might be a little underdone since wetbulbs at these levels start off around -3c. Is this a sleet sounding or just ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Lol that seems ridiculously confusing. I’m used to RAH’s forecasts for my area. ”Chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, or snow at some point today. Expect accumulations anywhere between zero and 8” of frozen precipitation. Highs anticipated to reach anywhere between 28 and 50.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I dont really know what to think at this point. This set up reminds me of one a while back where we ended up getting a ton of ice (the infamous "I hope you get an inch of ice" storm) when the forecast was a cold rain right up till the event started. After that over the years, a lot of times the set up seems to be there but for one reason or another we end up 33 or 34 and rain. The higher resolution models are showing a pretty big CAD, and the high seems to be in a pretty good location. It won't take much for NE GA an the upstate to get some ice, however, without much support from the other models I am just not sold on it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anyone have access to the 6z EURO? @griteater ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 30 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Anyone have access to the 6z EURO? @griteater ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 This was the 12z RGEM in comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Is this a sleet sounding or just ZR? Overnight, just freezing rain. Depth/degree of subfreezing air doesn't look deep enough for sleet and there is a huge warm nose. 46 minutes ago, NEGa said: I dont really know what to think at this point. This set up reminds me of one a while back where we ended up getting a ton of ice (the infamous "I hope you get an inch of ice" storm) when the forecast was a cold rain right up till the event started. After that over the years, a lot of times the set up seems to be there but for one reason or another we end up 33 or 34 and rain. The higher resolution models are showing a pretty big CAD, and the high seems to be in a pretty good location. It won't take much for NE GA an the upstate to get some ice, however, without much support from the other models I am just not sold on it at this point I don't think you will have to worry on this one. Looks like a lock for ice in your neck of the woods. I'm sold on everywhere north of 85 getting below freezing...in fact based on the nam/rgem, you should get into the upper 20s at your elevation. Also the nam has gainesville already at freezing by 18z. South of 85 though is a tougher call. You are right that this has all the usual signs and bells for a 30/31 degree ice event for north ga but timing of the precip couldn't be worse. If it comes in a little earlier there'd be little doubt but thanks to late start time of the main precip, will have to see how warm these areas get tomorrow and what the dewpoints do. I can say one thing with confidence, toss the gfs. Total trash....despite showing dewpoint depressions of around 15 degrees, it shows no temp response. That's absurd based on the fact we have a pretty solid/thick and cold boundary layer. Ice or no ice, it will bust by at minimum of 5 degrees in a lot of places. Here is the nams wetbulb temps i was speaking of earlier before any precip arrives. at 950mb/975. (actual temps are subfreezing too) this is fairly impressive with it's large extent. This look normally has ice written all over it assuming surface temps/DPs/wetbulbs corporate but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 ^ Those might be the most visually unappealing weather maps I have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanith Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looks like I chose the right weekend to break in the new crock pot with chili. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: ^ Those might be the most visually unappealing weather maps I have ever seen yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used. i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. here it is with 2 degree intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, jjwxman said: The 12z NAM 3Km is more believable and more inline with local forecasts. Nowhere close to what’s forecast in upstate and N GA. Which is why this is still so hard to give any credence to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, Lookout said: yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used. i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. here it is with 2 degree intervals. Now those make me nostalgic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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