mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 3K NAM has a very different look this morning. It develops precip much quicker then the last run which puts many more folks on the eastern fringe in the game: And SW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hard to get excited about wintry precip, with a forecast high of 50! Expect just another cold rain here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Check out low position down in south Alabama. Also seeing this finger band out in front on fv3 still all snow . Yep, maybe a few more surprises coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Hard to get excited about wintry precip, with a forecast high of 50! Expect just another cold rain here! Even the CMC gives you some icy love: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Even the CMC gives you some icy love: I don’t buy it at all! I mean the CMC and the NAM, are really the only 2 models giving me any frozen, and well, it’s the NAM and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I don’t buy it at all! I mean the CMC and the NAM, are really the only 2 models giving me any frozen, and well, it’s the NAM and CMC True, but that was a different look from the 3K NAM (maybe it has better info). Still a little bit of time for the other models to catch on (if there's anything to catch on to). So in short, we still have hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 WSW is up! NCZ003-112300- Surry- Including the city of Dobson 600 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. .TONIGHT...Clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. .SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the morning, then a chance of snow or a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Cooler with highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Sleet or snow likely in the evening, then sleet and freezing rain after midnight. Light snow accumulation. Near steady temperature around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. .SUNDAY...Cloudy. Sleet or snow or rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain or snow or sleet in the afternoon. Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. .MONDAY...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Sitting at 20/15 this morning. Where's the moisture when you need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 06z RGEM looks BIG time Icy!! For you too Mack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 For RDU / eastern folks, some of the models are trying to build in precip a little faster. The 3K NAM shows this and also the WKF_ARWS2; which I'm not sure how good it is, but... This is at hr 48 and precip is building fast (faster even then the NAM): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You mean 534 line. 540 is central/south VASorry. My bad. Should have said Middle Peninsula. Northern Neck is the next piece jutting out into the Chesapeake. Also cuts right across the Eastern Shore of the DelMarVa. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Been interesting watching the evolution of the high pressure over the lakes relative to the Low location. Still a lot to be worked out this late in the game for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Trying not to get sucked back in but the nam gives us in NW sc some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Some of the numbers the GGEM is spitting out for the Triad area are downright scary. .6-.8” of ice. I mean even half of that would be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: What crap model is this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Is there also an FV3 ice map to go with that? Seems like the snowfall map is way overdone for some of the southern areas that will likely be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Is there also an FV3 ice map to go with that? Seems like the snowfall map is way overdone for some of the southern areas that will likely be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What crap model is this from? FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: FV3 Thanks, I’m going with NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Here's my (clear-cut)grid forecast: Saturday Cloudy, with a high near 39. Light northeast wind. Saturday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then rain or freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 31. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Rain before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. High near 37. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Night A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm, then a chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 What’s the chances upstate sc get at least a advisory event?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What crap model is this from? Upper right corner, FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's my (clear-cut)grid forecast: Saturday Cloudy, with a high near 39. Light northeast wind. Saturday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then rain or freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 31. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Rain before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. High near 37. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Night A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm, then a chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. That generated crap is just plain STUPID! IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hey Guys. This is my 1st post. I live in NW Ga, so in systems like this all i can do is watch and admire. Cad events seldom come this far East. The Blue Ridge rises up just the next county to our East with heights of 3500 and above so they block the air . I will have to just hope for the event about the 23rd to have -nao and ridge to get the cold set up .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 What’s the chances upstate sc get at least a advisory event?.Not likely, so go enjoy the parade at Clemson. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Hard to get excited about wintry precip, with a forecast high of 50! Expect just another cold rain here! As long as the wet bulb is around freezing it can snow in the 50s, just won't stick (happened in Vegas a few weeks ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Looking to the skies said: Hey Guys. This is my 1st post. I live in NW Ga, so in systems like this all i can do is watch and admire. Cad events seldom come this far East. The Blue Ridge rises up just the next county to our East with heights of 3500 and above so they block the air . I will have to just hope for the event about the 23rd to have -nao and ridge to get the cold set up .... Welcome new poster, and yeah, I am hoping against hope for the 23rd as well. Good luck with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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