January 12th-13th event

[knowledgeispwr]

Just now, Cheers for Western Ears said:

When do you guys suppose they will start issuing advisories and warnings for the areas affected by the storm?

Sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[tarheelwx]

1 minute ago, Cheers for Western Ears said:

When do you guys suppose they will start issuing advisories and warnings for the areas affected by the storm?

I'd say the  am package. 

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said:

When do you guys suppose they will start issuing advisories and warnings for the areas affected by the storm?

A.m. package for sure. If you’re in an affected area with a watch, I would venture to say the forecast offices would have enough time to wait on advisory or warning until Sat a.m. packages.

[Jonathan]

9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

A.m. package for sure. If you’re in an affected area with a watch, I would venture to say the forecast offices would have enough time to wait on advisory or warning until Sat a.m. packages.

Curious to see your and @Disc thoughts for SWVA on this. Gonna be a headache to find the SN/IP/ZR lines between Roanoke and southside.

On another note, the 12k NAM takes the foothills from snow to ice, then back to snow as the coastal takes over. Is that scenario even plausible?

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Curious to see your and @Disc thoughts for SWVA on this. Gonna be a headache to find the SN/IP/ZR lines between Roanoke and southside.

On another note, the 12k NAM takes the foothills from snow to ice, then back to snow as the coastal takes over. Is that scenario even plausible?

I’d say for SWVA in particular, there will be a sharp cutoff with snow amounts due to mid levels wreaking havoc. 2m temps look pretty darn cold so it’s a matter of whether or not we can stay far enough away from the decaying primary low. As of right now up this way I’m def walking a fine line but I think I will be ok. Now for you I think you guys mix for sure down that way if I had gun to the head. 

[Jonathan]

Wow, the GFS is really, really dry.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’d say for SWVA in particular, there will be a sharp cutoff with snow amounts due to mid levels wreaking havoc. 2m temps look pretty darn cold so it’s a matter of whether or not we can stay far enough away from the decaying primary low. As of right now up this way I’m def walking a fine line but I think I will be ok. Now for you I think you guys mix for sure down that way if I had gun to the head. 

Id also say someone in and around the Blacksburg/Roanoke area on up 81 to just south of Charlottesville will jackpot with snow totals. Other scary part is to figure out how severe the icing becomes for a bunch down the escarpment etc.. 

I think the areas I mentioned including the NC mountains it would be prudent to issue watches for now and then get another couple of model cycles in to where a final determination will be made. Meso models naturally will be key.

[NCSNOW]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Wow, the GFS is really, really dry.

GFS is in and out in the blink of an eye. Arrives 6 hrs latter with precip and its over in 6 hours after starting. Very progressive

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Wow, the GFS is really, really dry.

0z hr 54 and 60 are virtually carbon copies of one another imo comparing 18z 

[griteater]

00z CMC is below freezing during the precip again in Greenville and Charlotte

[Jonathan]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Id also say someone in and around the Blacksburg/Roanoke area on up 81 to just south of Charlottesville will jackpot with snow totals. Other scary part is to figure out how severe the icing becomes for a bunch down the escarpment etc.. 

I think the areas I mentioned including the NC mountains it would be prudent to issue watches for now and then get another couple of model cycles in to where a final determination will be made. Meso models naturally will be key.

Yeah I fear some may see .25-.50" of ice somewhere, perhaps even here.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

00z CMC is below freezing during the precip again in Greenville and Charlotte

Initial waa snows look a lot better than American models right now as well at 42.

[kvegas-wx]

If the GFS is even close to accurate there wont be any left to fall after column saturation.  Nothing but frozen snizzle and maybe a dusting Monday on the way out.

[CaryWx]

Still might get a little snow in RDU area on way out though

[NCSNOW]

Im at hr 42 on Can . Stuck ,snow has just started breaking out wnc all of 77 west. Waiting on next frame

[NCSNOW]

Canadian Runs over now. Triad down 85 to Rowan county and west stays frozen whole time. Lot of ice on Canadian. Start with quick thump all NC west of 77 and everyone north of 64 till you get to coastal plain. Then ice sets in fast and holds whole time up and down 85 and points west.

When I say quick thump , im talking less than 3 hours panels. So it may not last 30 minutes at onset,then to sleet,then freezing rain . So use grain of salt

[Buddy1987]

@Jonathan

0z Canadian is a nice moderate snowstorm for all of SW VA. High is in a better position this go around just looking at 850 map. Mixing doesn’t happen until you go south of the VA border. Snow maps should update shortly as it’s taking awhile tonight on tidbits. 

[Jonathan]

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Jonathan

0z Canadian is a nice moderate snowstorm for all of SW VA. High is in a better position this go around just looking at 850 map. Mixing doesn’t happen until you go south of the VA border. Snow maps should update shortly as it’s taking awhile tonight on tidbits. 

Beautiful run by the Canadian, but isn't it usually too cold/snowy? Especially in the upper levels?

[SnowDawg]

Qpf difference between the 3km and 12km NAM is significant in NE GA, well over .5 inch difference in some places at the same hour. Light icing on the 3km and full on ice storm on the 12km. 

[Orangeburgwx]

I want sleet from this one, I'm hugging the NAM of it keeps getting colder

[NCSNOW]

0z Canadian freezing Rain map is a lights out. .66 Charlotte. .89 Asheboro .89 all the way to state line through and above Durham.

 

[Disc]

43 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Curious to see your and @Disc thoughts for SWVA on this. Gonna be a headache to find the SN/IP/ZR lines between Roanoke and southside.

On another note, the 12k NAM takes the foothills from snow to ice, then back to snow as the coastal takes over. Is that scenario even plausible?

Quite a complicated forecast and is very fluid and changing. Again, from my experience here, the snow/ice line will be (in my opinion) a bit south of what the NAM and GFS are showing... CAD stronger than modeled. Surprise, surprise! Yes this low ends up moving to the west in a Miller B fashion, but it's so darn weak, so I just can't see WAA being overly strong and I believe it's being over modeled. So couple a stronger CAD and weaker WAA, I'm thinking a bit more snow to the south of 460 than a lot of models are showing. Areas that I have a higher confidence in mixing is Southside VA, as well as the NC Foothills and the NRV. Our most recent snow map shows this well.

The change from ice, to snow, and back to ice is certainly plausible as the low begins to transfer from the TN valley to the coast. The tricky part is figuring out how long the mixing lasts and how far north it gets. (Again, goes back to how strong the WAA is.) Other thing would be to hope for heavier precip rates to overcome the marginal warm nose showing during the transfer. +1C to around +2C warm nose can be overcome if rates are high enough, but as soon as rates fall, you'll see a transition to ice/sleet.

I hope that somewhat answers your question and wasn't too repetitive. Running on very little sleep ....!

[Iceagewhereartthou]

6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

0z Canadian freezing Rain map is a lights out. .66 Charlotte. .89 Asheboro .89 all the way to state line through and above Durham.

And if you want eye candy go look at canadian h5 day 10 map. Wowza. Another global with a whopper rolling through SC [995ish] and big ole fat 1040ish HP sitting to our north perfectly located

Umm, isn't that about 500-600 miles to far north? Nothing but rain for the whole board.

 

Man this current system could be really nice but it's about 300 miles too far north. Got to get the storm track further south for us to get in on the action.

[NCSNOW]

23 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Umm, isn't that about 500-600 miles to far north? Nothing but rain for the whole board.

 

Man this current system could be really nice but it's about 300 miles too far north. Got to get the storm track further south for us to get in on the action.

Its a furnace lol. Never checked surface just saw it looping oz run. No doubt a storm is coming next weekend an unless we get suppresion itll probaly climb. Gonna be to wound up. We need one of those daughter vorticities up over buffalo.

[33rd Street]

1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

Beautiful run by the Canadian, but isn't it usually too cold/snowy? Especially in the upper levels?

CMC was one of the best and most consistent on Dec 4 event. Been pretty steady last several runs as well. Wouldn't discount its solution.

[Jonathan]

2 hours ago, Disc said:

Quite a complicated forecast and is very fluid and changing. Again, from my experience here, the snow/ice line will be (in my opinion) a bit south of what the NAM and GFS are showing... CAD stronger than modeled. Surprise, surprise! Yes this low ends up moving to the west in a Miller B fashion, but it's so darn weak, so I just can't see WAA being overly strong and I believe it's being over modeled. So couple a stronger CAD and weaker WAA, I'm thinking a bit more snow to the south of 460 than a lot of models are showing. Areas that I have a higher confidence in mixing is Southside VA, as well as the NC Foothills and the NRV. Our most recent snow map shows this well.

The change from ice, to snow, and back to ice is certainly plausible as the low begins to transfer from the TN valley to the coast. The tricky part is figuring out how long the mixing lasts and how far north it gets. (Again, goes back to how strong the WAA is.) Other thing would be to hope for heavier precip rates to overcome the marginal warm nose showing during the transfer. +1C to around +2C warm nose can be overcome if rates are high enough, but as soon as rates fall, you'll see a transition to ice/sleet.

I hope that somewhat answers your question and wasn't too repetitive. Running on very little sleep ....!

Thanks for the reply! (And wait a sec, are you with NWS Blacksburg?!) I may have to chase to Roanoke or Vinton for this one!

Also, the EURO is in and it's bone dry. Cuts a lot of totals almost in half. 3k NAM is dry, 0z GFS was dry, now 0z EURO is dry. Lot of local news outlets with some big 5-10" and 6-12" numbers. I'm afraid they may be in trouble. Hate these "dropping out of the Rockies" systems. Rather have the bowling ball coming out of Baja and into the Gulf.

[JoshM]

6z NAM a touch warmer, but nothing to write home about. This is as far as the freezing temps get, on the 3hr frames.

[FallsLake]

3K NAM has a very different look this morning. It develops precip much quicker then the last run which puts many more folks on the eastern fringe in the game:

 

[NCSNOW]

Check out low position down in south Alabama.

 

Also seeing this finger band out in front on fv3 still all snow .

[WiseWeather]

Its not too late.... its never too late..