NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hour 45 snow from northern mtns to Elizabeth City. Hour 48 snow line is from Ashe County to VA /NC state line above Elizabeth City. HOUR 51 Ice breaking out southern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM MUCH Colder, Especially North of I-40, ZR into North GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Weak sauce qpf so far compared to other models. But it does increase each cycle. See if 6 z steps it up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You have to wonder with that first batch that comes through hr 45 to 51 if or how much evaporates with low dp. But its supose to take that into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Hour 54 needs to posted . Ice way down into northeast GA, SC. Talking lookouts back yard. Imo if we were going to trust a model regarding thermals the NAM would be my go to, as to most others, so this def has some legs. 18z models had started to trend colder as well. Realizing the strength of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM is lights out for NE GA, upstate SC, and NC mtns. 0.25" - 0.75" on the charts. NC mtns in the 20s almost the entire storm. Concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hour 45 snow from northern mtns to Elizabeth City. Hour 48 snow line is from Ashe County to VA /NC state line above Elizabeth City. HOUR 51 Ice breaking out southern foothills.Well, being in Elizabeth City, that surprises me quite a lot. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, griteater said: you mean this one? Good thing Euro sucks! I want my ice! Hug the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 That 540 line is through the Northern Neck of Virginia.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Biggest thing about the evolution of the associate precip shield and leaf structure is super odd imo and I would venture should be discounted at this point, especially when comparing to other models evolutions. What is the most concerning is the temp profile and subsequent ice potential now sticking out for the southern Appalachian chain. Mets are gonna have a headache with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 OZ Nam Jackpots Frosty 6 inches. DC doesnt even get 1 inch. They end up 9/10ths an inch of snow. Edit: This is the bone dry 3k nam, Regular Nam has 4-8 across all Triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, tramadoc said: That 540 line is through the Northern Neck of Virginia. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk You mean 534 line. 540 is central/south VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM dropped the snow line into about Timberlake this run, just about 16 miles north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: OZ Nam Jackpots Frosty 6 inches. DC doesnt even get 1 inch. They end up 9/10ths an inch of snow. Edit: This is the bone dry 3k nam, Regular Nam has 4-8 across all Triad Can you show this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Snow wise, has the look/feel of car-topper at best in Triad before we torch mid-levels. I really hate freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Super misleading map, but 18z vs 0z frozen precip on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: Snow wise, has the look/feel of car-topper at best in Triad before we torch mid-levels. I really hate freezing rain. It's really had that icy look all along. At this point I kinda just hope it torches and we get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 This is hour 48, as far as This Canadian Short Range model goes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You can see some fairly good snow returns at hour 63 along from Winston to Durham and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Allright Im off kids laptop back to phone. Someone take over the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Two things happen in almost every storm here. 1. CAD over performs 2. Warm nose over performs Same thing happened here last storm. Got way less snow (almost none) than modeled and much more ice than modeled, albeit just shy of being enough to cause major issues luckily, but it was never really modeled as a big ice storm for me. Would not be surprised at all to see the CAD over perform again and there be more ice. Question is how much ice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, ForsythWx said: Super misleading map, but 18z vs 0z frozen precip on Nam Wow. Just wish it had support of other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM is easily the snowiest model for the front end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This is hour 48, as far as This Canadian Short Range model goes out. if there is another shift SE, wake co could be back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just thinking about why it's not colder farther south in the wedge on the NAM (Charlotte is near freezing during the precip for example)... Here's the NAM at hr54. We see that the wedge configuration is in place with 1038mb sfc high north of the Great Lakes and Miller B sfc low configuration over the southeast. However, we can see that the isobars aren't tightly packed so the wedge isn't a strong one. You can also see that the surface winds are light. A good wedge configuration has brisk winds in the damming region. In spite of all that, it should be plenty cold enough for a solid mixed precip event across the NW Piedmont and N Foothills. As a comparison, here's the tightly packed wedge configuration from the big icing event in early Dec 2002 (sfc high is obviously not as far north as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: RGEM is easily the snowiest model for the front end of this. Yes it is. We might get the mulch and roofs whitened up after all if we can get this front end little thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 When do you guys suppose they will start issuing advisories and warnings for the areas affected by the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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